Michigan State vs. Minnesota Predictions, Odds

  • December 28, 2020
  • By David Schwab
  • VegasInsider.com

A big matchup in the Big Ten this Monday night pits the No. 12 Michigan State Spartans against the Minnesota Golden Gophers. Game time from Williams Arena in Minneapolis is slated for 8 p.m. on the Big Ten Network.



Michigan State-Minnesota Betting Odds

Line Movements

  • Spread: Michigan State -1
  • Money-Line: Michigan State -119 Minnesota -105
  • Total: 161

Odds Subject to Change

Michigan State goes on the road this Monday night as a slight one-point favorite. The total line has been opened at 161 points.

The Spartans have lost their first two conference games straight-up to Northwestern on the road and to Wisconsin at home. This followed a 6-0 SU start in nonconference play. They are 2-6 against the closing spread overall with the total going OVER in five of the eight games.

Michigan State has won its last five games against Minnesota both SU and ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in the last seven meetings. The Spartans are 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games against the Golden Gophers.

Minnesota has won eight of its first nine games SU including a huge 102-95 overtime upset over Iowa as a +6.5-point home underdog on Christmas Day. The Golden Gophers have covered ATS in three of their previous four games with the total going OVER in the last five.

They are 9-1 SU (5-3-2 ATS) in their last 10 home games with the total going OVER in eight of those contests.


Betting Analysis – Michigan State Spartans

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 6-2
  • ATS: 2-6
  • SU - Home: 5-1
  • SU - Away: 1-1
  • O/U: 5-3

The 0-2 start (SU and ATS) in Big Ten play has to be a big concern for head coach Tom Izzo and his team. You would have to go all the way back to the 2006/2007 to mirror that kind of start.

Forward Joey Hauser is Michigan State’s leading scorer with 14 points while also pulling down a team-high 8.6 rebounds a game. Forward Aaron Henry is next on the list with 12 points per game along with 4.6 assists.

The Spartans are averaging 81.3 points a game and shooting a respectable 47% from the field. Led by Hauser, they are connecting on 36.8% of their three-point attempts. The issue remains on the other end of the court. Michigan State has allowed an average of 74.8 points a game. That jumps to 85 points over the previous three outings.

Betting Analysis – Minnesota Golden Gophers

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 8-1
  • ATS: 4-4-1
  • SU - Home: 8-0
  • SU - Away: 0-1
  • O/U: 7-2

Minnesota opened its Big Ten schedule with a 92-65 road loss to Illinois as an +8.5-point underdog. In the stunning upset against Iowa, Brandon Johnson got hot from three-point range with four long-range buckets in overtime.

The senior forward finished that game with 26 points and nine rebounds. Guard Marcus Carr has led the way through the first nine games with an average of 24.6 points while shooting 47.6% from the field and 39.3% from three-point range.

Center Liam Robbins is adding 12.6 points and 6.6 rebounds to the mix. With an average of 84.7 PPG, the Golden Gophers are shooting 42.8% from the field as a team. This drops back to 31.9% outside the three-point line.

Defense has also been an issue for Minnesota with a points allowed average of 75.9. That number jumps to 84.7 points over the Golden Gophers’ last three contests.

Inside the Stats – Michigan State Spartans

  • PS/G: 81.2 (62nd)
  • PA/G: 74.8 (263rd)
  • Off Rtg: 110.7 (62nd)
  • Def Rtg: 101.9 (247th)

Inside the Stats – Minnesota Golden Gophers

  • PS/G: 84,7 (33rd)
  • PA/G: 75.9 (271st)
  • Off Rtg: 110.1 (67th)
  • Def Rtg: 98.7 (205th)

Key Players to Watch

  • MSU - Joey Hauser (14 PPG, 8.6 RPG)
  • MSU - Rocket Watts (10.9 PPG, 4.6 APG)
  • MINN - Marcus Carr (24.6 PPG, 6.2 APG)
  • MINN - Liam Robbins (12.6 PPG, 6.6 RPG)

Michigan State-Minnesota Predictions

Given the recent trends in this conference clash, it would be hard to go against Michigan State despite the two-game losing streak. However, a big part of sports betting is sticking with the hotter team.

While I still thing the Spartans will find a way to right the ship, that may have to wait until their next game at Nebraska. I am going with Minnesota on a money line bet for this Monday night’s matchup.

The best bet in this game is the OVER on the total line. It has been set higher than average given each team’s ability to score and sketchy defense. Yet, it is not high enough to scare me off.

  • Score Prediction: Minnesota 84 Michigan State 82
  • Best Bets: Minnesota SU
  • Best Bets: OVER

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