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Purdue vs. Illinois Predictions, Odds

 

  • January 2, 2020
  • By Thom Cunningham
  • VegasInsider.com

The No. 15 Illinois Fighting Illini take on the Purdue Boilermakers in what promises to be another great Big Ten college basketball game. The game is scheduled to begin at 6:00 p.m. (ET) in the State Farm Center on the Big Ten Network.

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WHERE TO BET PURDUE-ILLINOIS

Purdue-Illinois Betting Odds

Line Movements

  • Spread: Illinois -8
  • Money-Line: Illinois -400 Purdue +290
  • Total: 148.5

Odds Subject to Change

Illinois enters this game on a nice winning streak, two straight after going 2-3 in five games prior. Illinois is coming off a nine-point home win against rival Indiana, marking the sixth game Illinois has covered over its last 10 games. Purdue has only covered three games this season.

The point total is set at 148.5, which Illinois is used to seeing go OVER. Illinois has gone OVER the point total in eight of its last 10 games, while Purdue is 7-4 on the O/U this season.

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Betting Analysis – Purdue Boilermakers

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 7-4
  • ATS: 3-7-1
  • SU - Home: 6-0
  • SU - Away: 1-4
  • O/U: 7-4

This will be a tough game for Purdue to win, but they can easily cover. There's not one stat that stands out, good or bad, for the Boilermakers. The team is ran through big man Trevion Williams, who averages a near double-double. He also averages 2.5 assists per game, which is decent for a big man.

Purdue does pass the ball well, with 17 assists per game ranking 41st in the nation. Sasha Stefanovic is the new facilitator with Eric Hunter being out. He will need to score more though, as this game will be a battle of scoring against Dosunmu and big men Williams and Cockburn.

Purdue's success relies on Williams playing well, and Purdue finding the open man for three (to compete in a track race with Dosunmu scoring).The Boilermakers need a lot to go right on Saturday to cover the spread, as Illinois is playing with confidence while their two stars are gaining traction.

Betting Analysis – Illinois Fighting Illini

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 7-3
  • ATS: 6-4
  • SU - Home: 5-0
  • SU - Away: 2-3
  • O/U: 8-2

Kofi Cockburn has to beat Williams in the paint if Illinois bettors wish to cover the spread. Cockburn must out-rebound and outscore Williams to give Illinois enough possessions to pull away with the spread. Ayo Dosunmu will also need to be efficient scoring buckets, which is rarely an issue.

If Cockburn can win the paint battle between he and Williams, then Illinois should be able to camouflage their below average defense. The game plan should be force Williams out of the game by beating him with Cockburn, then force Purdue to shoot contested threes. Purdue likes to shoot the three ball, so Illinois feeding into that by eliminating Williams seems to be a sound strategy.

Unless Purdue is lights out from three, or Williams is man-handling Cockburn down low, then Illinois should not only win but cover the spread. It's difficult to see Purdue keep pace with the 15th-best offense in the country, that is unless Williams beats up Cockburn or Purdue can't miss from the arch.

Inside the Stats – Purdue Boilermakers

  • PS/G: 72.8 (173rd)
  • PA/G: 67.4 (123rd)
  • Off Rtg: 108.1 (90th)
  • Def Rtg: 100 (213th)

Inside the Stats – Illinois Fighting Illini

  • PS/G: 87.3 (15th)
  • PA/G: 70.1 (170th)
  • Off Rtg: 118 (16th)
  • Def Rtg: 94.7 (128th)

Key Players to Watch

  • PUR - Trevion Williams (14.1 PPG, 9.7 RPG)
  • PUR - Sasha Stefanovic (11.5 PPG)
  • ILL - Ayo Dosunmu (24.1 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 5.2 APG)
  • ILL - Kofi Cockburn (17.2 PPG, 9.9 RPG)

Purdue-Illinois Predictions

Illinois is the safe bet here, and should come close to touching 90 points. This should also see the point total go OVER, as Purdue will more than likely touch the high 60's to low 70's. If Illinois plays as well as they did against Indiana then they will be fine.

The point total going OVER has odds to back as well. As mentioned, the O/U is 15-6 combined for both teams. Playing those odds and the idea Illinois will continue a somewhat resembling form of averaging 87 points per game, the OVER seems to be a fine bet.

  • Score Prediction: Illinois 84 Purdue 72
  • Best Bets: Illinois
  • Best Bets: OVER

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