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BYU vs. Gonzaga Predictions, Odds

 

  • January 7, 2020
  • By Thom Cunningham
  • VegasInsider.com

The BYU Cougars travel to Spokane, Washington to take on the No. 1 ranked Gonzaga Bulldogs Tip is set for 8:30 p.m. (ET) and will air on ESPN.

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WHERE TO BET BYU-GONZAGA

BYU-Gonzaga Betting Odds

  • Spread: Gonzaga -19
  • Money-Line: BYU +1100 Gonzaga -2500
  • Total: 163.5

Odds Subject to Change

Gonzaga enters this home game as a -19-point favorite, taking on a very dangerous BYU team. BYU went in to San Diego to beat the Aztecs earlier this season, looking to play another road upset in this one. Despite a perfect 10-0 SU record, Gonzaga has only covered six of 10 games this season.

BYU has covered the same amount of games in 10 attempts as well. The point total is set at 163.5, as both teams are a combined 11-9 O/U this season. Both markets are about split, making a difficult game to wager on.

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Betting Analysis – BYU Cougars

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 9-2
  • ATS: 6-5
  • SU - Home: 7-2
  • SU - Away: 2-0
  • O/U: 5-5

Can BYU win this impossible road game? Maybe. Despite the road record reading 2-0 for BYU, they are actually 3-1 if you include neutral court locations. BYU has beaten St. John's, San Diego State and Utah State on the road - none of which match to Gonzaga's level.

Maybe San Diego State on defense matches Gonzaga on offense, but BYU made work of San Diego State with a 10-point road win. BYU will need to be lights out from three, which it typically is, taking the 49th-most three-point shots per game and connecting on 9.5 a game which is 40th-best in the nation.

Alex Barcello, Brandon Averette and Matt Haarms are three seniors that lead the Cougars in points per game. They each average 11 or more, and will be the focus point in keeping pace with a ridiculously high-powered Gonzaga offense (Haarms out though).

BYU has experience and three-point shot making ability to have a chance, but realistically it's unlikely they win. They can cover though, as freshman Caleb Lohner will have to be a big key for BYU on the glass if the Cougars wish to cover. Richard Harward will also have to see more than his average 4.6 rebounds per game as the tallest BYU player on the team.

Betting Analysis – Gonzaga Bulldogs

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 10-0
  • ATS: 6-4
  • SU - Home: 8-0
  • SU - Away: 2-0
  • O/U: 6-4

There's no reason not to take Gonzaga, as its hard to argue against the nation's best team. Gonzaga has taken down Kansas, West Virginia, Iowa and Virginia. The Bulldogs have passed home tests, road tests, offensive tests and defensive tests - passing them all.

Gonzaga has three players worthy of winning the Wooden Award, and have scored 85 points or more in all 10 games played this season.Even with the injury of Jalen Suggs Gonzaga has plenty of depth. They score the most points in the nation (95.1 per game), they average the 4th-most assists per game (20.7) and have the best field goal percentage in the nation (55.4%).

Inside the Stats – BYU Cougars

  • PS/G: 78.9 (75th)
  • PA/G: 67.4 (116th)
  • Off Rtg: 108.1 (89th)
  • Def Rtg: 92.3 (80th)

Inside the Stats – Gonzaga Bulldogs

  • PS/G: 95.1 (1st)
  • PA/G: 72.4 (234th)
  • Off Rtg: 124.3 (3rd)
  • Def Rtg: 94.6 (121st)

Key Players to Watch

  • BYU - Alex Barcello (16.9 PPG, 4.8 APG)
  • BYU - Brandon Averette (10.8 PPG)
  • ZAGA - Corey Kispert (21.6 PPG, 4.5 RPG)
  • ZAGA - Drew Timme (18.4 PPG, 7.3 RPG)

BYU-Gonzaga Predictions

As good as Gonzaga is, BYU can cover this game. Gonzaga scores more points than any other team in the nation, but they are not a good three-point shooting team. Also, Gonzaga has a pretty bad defense which is usually camouflaged with a terrific offense.

If BYU can hit their three-point shots then they will be in this game for most of the time. Gonzaga will win and pull away at some point, but the Cougars are more than capable of covering a double-digit spread if they are hitting the three and controlling the paint. The former is more realistic to do for BYU, but counting on the Cougars being lights out against the best team in college isn't very wise.

The point total going OVER seems very likely, as Gonzaga has a 95.1 point per game average while allowing the 234th-most points per game. Assuming Gonzaga's offense and defense remains the same, and assuming BYU's road conviction can lead to offensive scoring, the point total going OVER should hit although very high.

  • Score Prediction: Gonzaga 94 BYU 71
  • Best Bets: OVER

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