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Purdue vs. Michigan State Predictions, Odds

 

  • January 8, 2020
  • By David Schwab
  • VegasInsider.com

The Purdue Boilermakers head to the Breslin Center this Friday night for a Big Ten clash against the No. 23 Michigan State Spartans. Tip-off is set for 7:00 p.m. (ET) on FS1.

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Purdue-Michigan State Betting Odds

  • Spread: Michigan State -4.5
  • Money-Line: Michigan State -190 Purdue +170
  • Total: 143.5

Odds Subject to Change

Michigan State is set as a four-point home favorite for Friday night and the total for the game has been opened at 143.5 points.

Back-to-back losses to Rutgers and Illinois on the road has dropped Purdue to 2-3 straight-up in the Big Ten as part of an overall record of 7-5. It has failed to cover against the spread in eight of its last nine games with one PUSH. The total has gone OVER in seven of 11 games this season.

The Boilermakers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games against Michigan State with just five SU wins in the last 15 meetings. Michigan State’s 23-point romp over Rutgers on Tuesday night was the first time it covered ATS in its last eight games. The Spartans are 8-3 SU overall with a 3-8 record ATS.

The total has stayed UNDER in three of their last five games. The Spartans have won five of their last six home games against Purdue SU. The total has stayed UNDER in four of the last five matchups overall.

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Betting Analysis – Purdue Boilermakers

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 7-5
  • ATS: 3-7-2
  • SU - Home: 6-0
  • SU - Away: 1-5
  • O/U: 7-5

Purdue has gone 0-4 both SU and ATS in four previous road games this season. It closed as a +7.5-point underdog in last Saturday’s eight-point loss to Illinois.

Trevion Williams continues to lead the Boilermakers in both points (14.1) and rebounds (9.6) per game. The junior forward combined for 35 points and 20 rebounds in his team’s last two games.

There are four other players averaging at least nine points per game as part of Purdue’s 71.6- point scoring average. As a whole, the team is shooting 46.1% from the field and 37.9% from three-point range.

The Boilermakers are pulling down an average of 36.6 rebounds a game while holding opposing teams to 67.3 PPG on defense.

Betting Analysis – Michigan State Spartans

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 8-3
  • ATS: 3-8
  • SU - Home: 6-1
  • SU - Away: 2-2
  • O/U: 6-5

The Spartans have already lost three conference games this season closing as favorites but they returned to form in the lopsided victory against Rutgers earlier this week.

Aaron Henry led the way with 20 points, eight rebounds and four blocked shots. The junior forward leads the team in scoring overall with 14.0 PPG as well as in assists with 3.8. Forward Joey Hauser is adding 12 points and a team-high 8.5 rebounds a game.

Michigan State has averaged 78 points a game through its first 11 outings while connecting on 45.2% of its shots from the field. This drops to 35.3% from beyond the three-point line.

With an average of 39.3 rebounds a game, 33 are on the defensive end of the court. The Spartans are allowing an average of 72.8 PPG.

Inside the Stats – Purdue Boilermakers

  • PS/G: 71.6 (202nd)
  • PA/G: 67.2 (114th)
  • Off Rtg: 106 (113th)
  • Def Rtg: 99.6 (209th)

Inside the Stats – Michigan State Spartans

  • PS/G: 78 (84th)
  • PA/G: 72.8 (244th)
  • Off Rtg: 107.1 (101st)
  • Def Rtg: 100 (213th)

Key Players to Watch

  • PUR - Trevion Williams (14.1 PPG, 9.6 RPG)
  • PUR - Sahsa Stefanovic (11.3 PPG)
  • MSU - Aaron Henry (14 PPG, 5.5 RPG)
  • MSU - Joey Hauser (12 PPG, 8.5 RPG)

Purdue-Michigan State Predictions

It's hard to trust Purdue on the road. However, it is also hard to know if Michigan State has turned things around following a 0-3 start (SU and ATS) in Big Ten play. Neither team’s recent record ATS is inspiring when betting this game.

None the less, the Boilermakers have remained competitive in this series over the past few years and I believe they can play well enough on Friday night to cover again.

Also relying heavily on recent betting trends between the two, I have this game staying UNDER the current total line. Each team’s defense steps up its game a bit to keep the scoring lower than expected.

  • Score Prediction: Michigan State 72 Purdue 70
  • Best Bets: Purdue
  • Best Bets: Under

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