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Baylor vs. Texas Tech Predictions, Odds


  • January 16, 2021
  • By David Schwab

Saturday’s big showdown in the Big 12 sends the No. 2 Baylor Bears on the road to face the No. 15 Texas Tech Red Raiders at United Super Markets Arena. Tip-off on ESPN is set for 4 p.m. (ET).



Baylor-Texas Tech Betting Odds

  • Spread: Baylor -3
  • Money-Line: TBD
  • Total: 137.5

Odds Subject to Change

Baylor comes into Saturday’s contest as a -3-point road favorite. The betting line for the total has been opened at 137.5 points.

The Bears have won their first 11 games straight-up, including their first four in conference play. They're 9-2 against the spread with the total staying UNDER in seven of 11 games. Baylor has closed as a double-digit favorite in 10 of those contests.

Going back to last season, the Bears have won four of its last five games against Texas Tech SU with a 3-2 mark ATS. The total has gone OVER in three of the last four meetings. They are 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS in their last 10 road games overall.

Texas Tech is coming off a road upset over Texas to move to 4-2 SU (2-4 ATS) in Big 12 play. It is 11-3 SU overall with a 6-8 record ATS. The total has gone OVER in its last five outings. The Red Raiders have failed to cover in their last five home games including SU losses to Kansas and Oklahoma State this season. The total has gone OVER in its last three games played at home.


Betting Analysis – Baylor Bears

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 11-0
  • ATS: 9-2
  • SU - Home: 7-0
  • SU - Away: 4-0
  • O/U: 4-7

Betting Analysis – Texas Tech Red Raiders

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 11-3
  • ATS: 6-8
  • SU - Home: 8-2
  • SU - Away: 3-1
  • O/U: 7-7

As one of the premier programs in the nation, Baylor has shown impressive balance across both ends of the court. It has won games with a shutdown defense as well as by simply outscoring the other team in a shootout.

Guards’ Jared Butler (16.4 points) and MaCio Teague (15.6 points) are the biggest contributors to an offensive effort that is ranked sixth in the nation in scoring with 89 points per game.

Guard Davion Mitchell is one of the team’s top shooters with a 52.2 field-goal percentage while averaging 11.5 PPG.

Overall, Baylor is connecting on 50.9% of its shots from the field and 42.8% from three-point range. It is pulling down 38.8 rebounds a game.

Defensively, the Bears are holding opposing teams to 61.2 points a game.

Inside the Stats – Baylor Bears

  • PS/G: 89 (5th)
  • PA/G: 61.2 (20th)
  • Off Rtg: 123.8 (3rd)
  • Def Rtg: 85.1 (10th)

Texas Tech got a big effort from Mac McClung in Wednesday’s 79-77 road victory over Texas as a slight one-point underdog.

The junior guard posted 22 points in that game and he leads the team in scoring with 15.8 PPG. He has now exceeded that average in each of his last four starts.

Guard Terrence Shannon Jr. is another key scorer (13.6 points) on a Texas Tech team that is averaging 75.8 PPG. Guard Kyler Edwards (10.4 points) leads in assists with 2.4.

The Red Raiders are shooting 44.4% from the field and 33.3% from outside the three-point line. Texas Tech is averaging 36.1 rebounds a game led by forward Marcus Santos-Silva (6).

Defensively, it is allowing 59.4 PPG.

Inside the Stats – Texas Tech Red Raiders

  • PS/G: 75.8 (111th)
  • PA/G: 59.4 (10th)
  • Off Rtg: 110.1 (54th)
  • Def Rtg: 86.2 (12th)

Key Players to Watch

  • BAY - Jared Butler (16.4 PPG, 5.4 APG)
  • BAY - MaCio Teague (15.6 PPG, 4.2 RPG)
  • TT - Mac McClung (15.8 PPG)
  • TT - Terrence Shannon (13.6 PPG, 5 RPG)

Baylor-Texas Tech Predictions

This will be Baylor’s toughest test of the year and one it should pass with the SU win. The Red Raiders are coming off a big win and playing at home but that will not be enough to derail the Bears’ current winning streak.

This should still be a highly entertaining matchup that stays close until the final buzzer. None the less, I like Baylor ATS as well covering the points on the road.

Most of the public’s money should lean towards the OVER in this contest but I have each team’s defense controlling the tempo of the game. Things should slow down just enough to keep the final combined score UNDER the current line.

  • Score Prediction: Baylor 71 Texas Tech 65
  • Best Bets: Baylor -3
  • Best Bets: UNDER

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