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Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:47 PM

Tennessee vs. Florida Predictions, Odds

  • January 19, 2021
  • By Thom Cunningham

The Florida Gators host a difficult matchup against the Tennessee Volunteers. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. (ET) and will air on ESPN from the Exactech Arena.



Tennessee-Florida Betting Odds

Line Movements

  • Spread: Tennessee -5
  • Money-Line: Tennessee -275 Florida +235
  • Total: 136.5

Odds Subject to Change

Tennessee is the road favorite, given a -5-point spread against Florida. Tennessee has won 10 of its last 11 games SU, while covering the spread in eight of those 11. Florida is just 5-5 on the ATS this season.

The point total is set at 136.5, which Tennessee has gone UNDER in seven games this season. Florida tends to go OVER more, 6-4 on the O/U this season.


Betting Analysis – Tennessee Volunteers

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 10-1
  • ATS: 8-3
  • SU - Home: 8-1
  • SU - Away: 2-0
  • O/U: 4-7

Tennessee continues to be one of the better dark horse bets to win March Madness this season. The Volunteers pose a top-four defense nationally, allowing 57.2 points per game (fourth in nation) and a defensive efficiency rating of 84.1 (also ranks fourth nationally).

The offense isn't elite, but it's more than serviceable with 77.2 points per game (85th nationally) and an offensive efficiency rating of 113.5 which ranks 22nd nationally. This is a stacked roster that sees four players average a double-digit point total, and three others average 7.5 points per game or more.

Victor Bailey leads the way for this team, averaging 12.3 points per game, while John Fulkerson is close behind with 11.9. Fulkerson leads the team in rebounding as well, while both Josiah-Jordan James and Yves Pons average over five rebounds per game.

Santiago Vescovi has become more a scorer lately and less a facilitator, seeing his point per game average hit 10 while his assists per game has taken a hit. Jaden Springer is the study freshman that rounds out a deep, talented and well-rounded team in Tennessee.

Betting Analysis – Florida Gators

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 6-4
  • ATS: 5-5
  • SU - Home: 4-1
  • SU - Away: 2-3
  • O/U: 6-4

Florida is in a bit of trouble, slumping for the first time this season and without star player Keyontae Johnson. It seemed as if Florida would be able to withstand losing its best player early on, but the Gators have lost three of four games which includes an 18-point thumping against Kentucky.

Can the Gators rebound? Yes, they are talented enough and playing at home. Tre Mann needs to take over though, averaging 14 points per game, 5.4 rebounds and 4.2 assists. Colin Castleton has done a good job filling in, seeing solid scoring totals and now the leading rebounder for this team.

Scottie Lewis being out has definitely hurt this team as well, as the Gators are simply too injury-riddled to consider a real home upset. They rank 209th nationally in rebounds per game, they rank 259th nationally in assists per game and take virtually no three-point shots.

Florida can block shots and get to the free throw line, but that's hardly enough to stop what is essentially a Swiss Army knife of college basketball rosters in Tennessee. The Gators will have to break through this stingy Vols' defense without two top players, a seemingly large task unless Mann plays out of his mind - and gets some help.

Inside the Stats – Tennessee Volunteers

  • PS/G: 77.2 (85th)
  • PA/G: 57.2 (3rd)
  • Off Rtg: 113.5 (23rd)
  • Def Rtg: 84.1 (5th)

Inside the Stats – Florida Gators

  • PS/G: 76.7 (91st)
  • PA/G: 71 (199th)
  • Off Rtg: 106.2 (111th)
  • Def Rtg: 98.3 (180th)

Key Players to Watch

  • TENN - Victor Bailey (12.3 PPG)
  • TENN - John Fulkerson (11.9 PPG, 6.4 RPG)
  • UF - Tre Mann (14 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 4.2 APG)
  • UF - Colin Castleton (12.6 PPG, 5.7 RPG)

Tennessee-Florida Predictions

Tennessee should be fine in winning and covering on the road here. Florida is in a free fall and now face the toughest opponent on its schedule to date. Playing Tennessee's odds is usually a good idea, which point to covering the spread and the UNDER.

Florida should have a difficult time scoring in this one, as Tennessee's top-four defense is worth a wager. Florida couldn't touch 60 points against Kentucky, so expect Tennessee to keep Florida around the 60-65 point range.

So playing the odds correctly, go with Tennessee's talent over Florida's (8-3 ATS for Vols) and Tennessee's defense (4-7 O/U) and try not to overthink this game too much. The Vols should be wagered on more times than not all season.

  • Score Prediction: Tennessee 74 Florida 59
  • Best Bets: Tennessee -5
  • Best Bets: UNDER

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