FSU vs. UNC Predictions, Odds, Preview

Feb. 27, 2021
Thom Cunningham
NCAA BK Expert

The FSU Seminoles hit the road for a massive ACC matchup, taking on the UNC Tar Heels. Tip for this Saturday game is set for 4 p.m. (ET) and will air on ESPN.


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FSU-UNC Betting Odds

  • Spread: FSU -1
  • Money-Line: TBD
  • Total: 150.5

Odds Subject to Change

FSU opens as the slight road favorite, given a -1-point spread. FSU does well covering the spread, doing so in 10 of 17 games this season. UNC has failed to cover the spread in 13 of its last 22 games.

The point total is a somewhat high 150.5, which leans OVER when combining both schools O/U records. FSU has gone OVER the point total in 11 of 17 games, while UNC has gone OVER in just 10 of 22 games.

The Florida State Seminoles are the current favorites (+300) to win the ACC Tournament, leading the conference standings. (AP)

Betting Analysis – FSU Seminoles

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 14-3
  • ATS: 10-6-1
  • SU - Home: 11-1
  • SU - Away: 3-2
  • O/U: 11-4-2

FSU is one of the hottest teams in the country right now, winning four in a row that began with an overtime win over Wake Forest. They've also won nine of their last 10 games, but two of the three losses this season have come on the road against good ACC teams.

UNC is desperate for a win, losing to Marquette at home and one of many teams sitting on the bubble. FSU is now playing the third straight road game, and although have looked good against Pitt and Miami-Florida, this desperate UNC team is their toughest opponent during the three-game road stretch.

MJ Walker leads the team in points per game, the senior leader for this club. Scottie Barnes is a prospect for the NBA, averaging 10.1 points, 3.9 rebounds and 4.4 assists per game. He is lethal in all facets of the guard position, while Raiquan Gray averages 11.7 points with 6.7 rebounds per game.

Betting Analysis – UNC Tar Heels

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 14-8
  • ATS: 9-12-1
  • SU - Home: 8-2
  • SU - Away: 6-6
  • O/U: 10-12

UNC is dangerous in this spot, coming off a loss and now playing with absolutely nothing to lose. UNC can catch FSU at home, but the Tar Heels will need to do what they do better than anyone in the country - rebound.

The pairing of freshman Armando Bacot and senior Garrison Brooks is a huge reason as to why UNC averages the third-most rebounds per game nationally at 42.5. If UNC can win the glass game then they have a chance, as number of possessions will be key for them to get the victory.

The name that needs to step up is Caleb Love, who is progressing very nicely but still struggling with his three-point average. He attempts 4.1 three-pointers per game, but only hits 23.3% of them. Kerwin Walton, who averages 4.4 three-pointers per game and hits 45.4% of them, might become the most important Tar Hell if Love is not connecting from deep.

UNC needs to win rebounding, which is the easy part, but hitting three's (which they don't do - 31.5% from outside ranks 279th in nation) is absolutely necessary for the home upset. That comes from Love or Walton.

Inside the Stats – FSU Seminoles

  • PS/G: 79.8 (32nd)
  • PA/G: 69.2 (143rd)
  • Off Rtg: 113.6 (16th)
  • Def Rtg: 98.5 (141st)

Inside the Stats – UNC Tar Heels

  • PS/G: 74.2 (107th)
  • PA/G: 69.4 (153rd)
  • Off Rtg: 103.8 (139th)
  • Def Rtg: 97.1 (108th)

Key Players to Watch

  • FSU - MJ Walker (13.1 PPG)
  • FSU - Scottie Brooks (10.1 PPG, 4.4 APG)
  • UNC - Armando Bacot (11.4 PPG, 7.5 RPG)
  • UNC - Garrison Brooks (10.7 PPG, 7.1 RPG)

FSU-UNC Predictions

UNC at home should win this game, despite FSU being the better team in terms of talent. The Tar Heels are desperate for a win, more focused than ever after a loss to Marquette and with March Madness in mind. FSU is better though, so picking a winner is not my recommendation.

The point total is very high here, as UNC just allowed 83 to Marquette. Don't expect the Tar Heels to be caught off guard two straight games inside Dean E. Smith. Both schools allow just under 70 points per game, so assuming 75 is the highest for either school the point total should stay UNDER.

  • Score Prediction: UNC 75 FSU 74
  • Best Bets: UNDER


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