Wisconsin vs. Purdue Predictions, Odds, Preview

Mar. 2, 2021

NCAA BK Expert

The Wisconsin Badgers (16-9, 10-8 Big Ten) travel to meet the Purdue Boilermakers (16-8, 11-6) at Mackey Arena in West Lafayette, Ind. on Tuesday in a battle between teams in the middle of the pack in the Big Ten Conference. You can catch the game on ESPN2.


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Wisconsin-Purdue Betting Odds

Line Movements

  • Spread: Purdue -2
  • Money-Line: Purdue -155 Wisconsin +125
  • Total: 128.5

Odds Subject to Change

Wisconsin suffered a 74-69 loss at home against Illinois on Saturday, its third loss in the past four outings while also going 1-3 ATS during the span. The Badgers have had a very difficult time lately, especially at home. Perhaps a trip to Mackey Arena will be good for them, as they are 4-1 SU/ATS across their past five games on the road.

Purdue heads into this one as a slight favorite over Wisconsin, and they're coming off a 73-52 massacre of Penn State in State College on Friday. The Boilermakers are looking for a fourth consecutive victory, which would tie a season high. They have also covered three in a row, bested only by a 4-0 ATS run from Jan. 8-19.

Micah Potter and the Wisconsin Badgers have lost three of their last four games, along with six of their last 10 overall. (AP)

Betting Analysis – Wisconsin Badgers

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 16-9
  • ATS: 11-13-1
  • SU - Home: 11-5
  • SU - Away: 5-4
  • O/U: 11-13-1

The Badgers are clinging to a spot in the Top 25 rankings, and they should be a shoe-in for the NCAA Tournament despite their recent downturn, but the Badgers would like to build a little momentum heading into the conference tourney and beyond.

If the season were to end today, the Badgers have no mathematical chance at the double-bye in the conference tournament. However, they'd likely not want to fall below sixth place or risk a potential quick exit. The way they're playing right now, no win is a certainty.

The good news is that Wisconsin is 8-1-2 ATS in the past 11 following a straight up loss, and 5-1 ATS in the past six following a non-cover. The bad news is that the Badgers are 0-4 ATS in the past four tries against a team with a winning overall mark.

The UNDER has also gone 5-1-1 ATS in the past seven games overall, while going 8-0 ATS following a non-cover. The UNDER is also 23-9-1 across the past 33 road outings.

Betting Analysis – Purdue Boilermakers

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 16-8
  • ATS: 12-10-2
  • SU - Home: 10-1
  • SU - Away: 6-7
  • O/U: 12-12

The Boilermakers currently sit in the fourth spot in the standings, a half-game back of Iowa for third, and they're tied with Ohio State with two games in hand, including one in the loss column. This is an important game for Purdue, who would like to get one of those top four seeds.

Purdue has been tough on its home floor, winning 10 of 11 games overall. Their only loss at Mackey came against the visiting Michigan Wolverines, 70-53 as five-point underdogs.

It's been all about the UNDER lately, hitting in two in a row, three of the past four and six of the past nine. The Boilermakers haven't had back-to-back OVER results since Jan. 14-17. Conversely, they haven't havd three straight UNDER results.Purdue hasn't had a very prolific offense this season, going for just 70.9 PPG to rank 196th in the nation. The Boilermakers are hitting 45.0 percent from the field to rank 128th, and they're just 33.6 percent on three-pointers to check in 188th. They're not a great free-throw shooting team, either, ranking 151st at 71.4 percent.

The Boilermakers rely heavily upon its defense, yielding just 65.7 PPG (62nd), while holding the opposition to 41.3 percent from the field (72nd).

Inside the Stats – Wisconsin Badgers

  • PS/G: 69.8 (221st)
  • PA/G: 63.2 (25th)
  • Off Rtg: 104.7 (126th)
  • Def Rtg: 94.8 (61st)

Inside the Stats – Purdue Boilermakers

  • PS/G: 70.9 (196th)
  • PA/G: 65.7 (63rd)
  • Off Rtg: 105.6 (107th)
  • Def Rtg: 97.8 (125th)

Key Players to Watch

  • WIS - D'Mitrik Trice (14.1 PPG)
  • WIS - Micah Potter (12.5 PPG, 6.2 RPG)
  • PUR - Trevion Williams (15.8 PPG, 9 RPG)
  • PUR - Jaden Ivey (9.3 PPG)

Wisconsin-Purdue Predictions

This is a big game for Purdue, and they have been playing well of late. It's a big game for Wisconsin, too, but the difference is that they haven't been rising to the occasion in big games lately, so why should Tuesday be any different.

Both sides will be in the game because they're very similar in style. Neither team is flashy, and they certainly aren't considered high-octane offenses. They have good defenses, and that will ultimately be what decides the game down the stretch, plus venue. Look for Purdue to scratch out a scrappy win late in the second half.

  • Score Prediction: Purdue 69 Wisconsin 64
  • Best Bets: Purdue -2
  • Best Bets: OVER 128.5


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