Missouri vs. Florida Predictions, Odds, Preview

Mar. 3, 2021
Dave Schwab
NCAA BK Expert

Wednesday night’s college basketball betting action in the SEC features a matchup between the Missouri Tigers and the Florida Gators at Exactech Arena. Game time on the SEC Network is set for 6:30 p.m. (ET).


  • Expert Picks: Vegas Insiders
  • Conference: SEC
  • Venue: Exactech Arena
  • Location: Gainesville, Florida
  • Date: Wednesday, March 3, 2021
  • Time: 6:30 p.m. (ET)
  • TV: SECN
  • Live Stream: Follow all of your College Hoops Action on ESPN+

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Missouri-Florida Betting Odds

  • Spread: Florida -5.5
  • Money-Line: TBD
  • Total: 132

Odds Subject to Change

The Gators get the nod as 5.5-point home favorites on the opening spread. The betting line for the total has been opened at 132 points. Missouri has just one win (straight-up and against the spread) in its last five outings following a seven-point loss to Ole Miss on Feb. 23 as a four-point home favorite.

The total has gone OVER in eight of its last 11 games. The Tigers have lost four out of their last five games against Florida SU. The total has gone OVER in its last five road games this year.

Florida has posted a SU 7-2 record in its last nine outings with a 5-4 record ATS. It covered as a two-point road underdog in Saturday’s four-point win over Kentucky. The total has stayed UNDER in its last five games.

The total has stayed UNDER in five of the Gators’ last six home games. It has gone OVER in four of its last five games against Missouri.

The Missouri Tigers have lost four of their last five games, looking to bounce back with a huge road win against the Florida Gators. (AP)

Betting Analysis – Missouri Tigers

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 14-7
  • ATS: 11-10
  • SU - Home: 9-3
  • SU - Away: 5-4
  • O/U: 12-7-2

The Tigers are an even 7-7 SU this season in SEC play with two games left on the schedule. They are seventh in the current standings.

Guards’ Xavier Pinson (14 points) and Dru Smith (13.9 points) are the Tigers’ two leading scorers this season. This lineup has four different players averaging at least 10 points per game.

Missouri is averaging 73.9 PPG and converting on 45.4% of its shots from the field. This drops to 31.6% from three-point range. Smith is the team’s best shooter (38.6%) from outside the three-point line.

Defensively, the Tigers are allowing an average of 71.5 PPG. They have given up 78 points or more in four of their last five contests.

Betting Analysis – Florida Gators

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 13-6
  • ATS: 10-9
  • SU - Home: 7-2
  • SU - Away: 6-4
  • O/U: 9-10

With a SU 9-5 record in the SEC and two games to go, Florida is holding down third place in the conference standings.

Tre Mann was the man in Saturday’s road win at Kentucky with 21 points. The sophomore guard leads the Gators across the board in points (14.7), rebounds (5.8) and assists (3.4). He is shooting 43% from the field and 39.8% from three-point range.

Florida has four more players averaging at least nine PPG. Everything adds up to a 75.9-point scoring average with a 46.8% shooting percentage from the field. The team is shooting 35.9% outside the three-point line.

The Gators are pulling down a total of 35.8 rebounds a game and holding opposing teams to 69.9 PPG on defense. They have not given up more than 67 points in their current SU three-game winning streak.

Inside the Stats – Missouri Tigers

  • PS/G: 73.9 (112th)
  • PA/G: 71.5 (216th)
  • Off Rtg: 104 (137th)
  • Def Rtg: 100.6 (194th)

Inside the Stats – Florida Gators

  • PS/G: 75.9 (76th)
  • PA/G: 69.9 (169th)
  • Off Rtg: 105.9 (100th)
  • Def Rtg: 97.5 (117th)

Key Players to Watch

  • MIZZ - Xavier Pinson (14 PPG)
  • MIZZ - Dru Smith (13.9 PPG)
  • UF - Tre Mann (14.7 PPG, 5.8 RPG)
  • UF - Colin Castleton (12.9 PPG, 5.8 RPG)

Missouri-Florida Predictions

The Tigers continue to struggle down the stretch, while Florida is laying the groundwork for a solid run in the postseason conference tournament. Look for both trends to continue Wednesday night with the Gators winning SU while covering the points in the current spread.

Florida has done a good job of playing defense at home lately, and I see that continuing as well against the Tigers. Take the UNDER betting the total line in this game.

  • Score Prediction: Florida 70 Missouri 61
  • Best Bets: Florida -5.5
  • Best Bets: UNDER


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