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College Basketball

Iowa vs. Illinois Predictions, Odds, Preview

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
6 minute read
Mar. 13, 2021
David Schwab
NCAA BK Expert
VegasInsider.com

In a 3:30 p.m. (ET) tip at Lucas Oil Stadium, the No. 3 seeded Iowa Hawkeyes will square off against the No. 2 Illinois Fighting Illini in Saturday’s semifinal round of the Big Ten Tournament. CBS will carry the game nationally.

BETTING RESOURCES

Iowa-Illinois Betting Odds

  • Spread: Illinois -4
  • Total: 157

Odds Subject to Change

Illinois gets the opening nod in this semifinal showdown as a four-point favorite. The total line for the game has been set at 157 points.

Iowa opened tournament play on Friday with a 62-57 win against Wisconsin that ended as a PUSH. It is now 8-1 straight-up in its last nine games while going 5-3-1 against the spread. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of those nine contests.

The Hawkeyes lost to Illinois 80-75 on Jan. 29 as three-point road underdogs. The total stayed UNDER 161.5 points. They are 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between the two. The total has stayed UNDER in two of the last three matchups.

Illinois faced Rutgers in the quarterfinals and rolled to a 90-68 victory as an eight-point favorite. It has now won its last five games both SU and ATS. The total has gone OVER in five of its last seven outings.

The Fighting Illini have won 12 of their last 13 games SU and they are 5-1 SU in their last six March games.

Betting Analysis – Iowa Hawkeyes

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 20-7
  • ATS: 15-12
  • O/U: 14-13

As expected, Big Ten Player of the Year Luka Garza played a major roll in Friday’s win. He ended the game with 24 points and nine rebounds to basically match his season average in both stats. He shot 55.4% from the field and 42% from three-point range.

Guard Joe Wieskamp tweaked his ankle in that game but he remains listed as probable for Saturday. He is the team’s second-leading scorer with 14.8 points per game.

The Hawkeyes are scoring an average of 84.2 points and pulling down a total of 40.3 rebounds a game. They are shooting 47.2% from the field and 38.8% from three-point range.

Defensively, Iowa has given up an average of 62.8 points during its current four-game winning streak. The team’s points-allowed average this season is 71.6.

Betting Analysis – Illinois Fighting Illini

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 20-6
  • ATS: 16-9-1
  • O/U: 14-11-1

Ayo Dosunmu had the hot hand against Rutgers with 23 points. The junior guard scored 19 points against Ohio State in the regular season finale after missing his previous three starts with a concussion.

On the year, Dosunmu is averaging 21 points, 6.2 rebounds and 5.3 assists. Center Kofi Cockburn is next on the list with 17.3 PPG while leading the team in rebounds (9.7).

Illinois has averaged 81 PPG this season while shooting 50.1% from the field and 37.9% from three-point range. It matches up well with Iowa under the boards as well with 40.3 rebounds a game.

This defense is holding opposing teams to 68.5 PPG this season. This average moves to 65.6 points during the current five-game winning streak.


Inside the Stats – Iowa Hawkeyes

  • PS/G: 84.2 (4th)
  • PA/G: 71.6 (212th)
  • Off Rtg: 118.4 (3rd)
  • Def Rtg: 100.7 (186th)

Inside the Stats – Illinois Fighting Illini

  • PS/G: 81 (16th)
  • PA/G: 68.5 (121st)
  • Off Rtg: 112.3 (19th)
  • Def Rtg: 94.9 (56th)

Key Players to Watch

  • IOWA - Luka Garza (23.8 PPG, 8.7 RPG)
  • IOWA - Joe Wieskamp (14.8 PPG, 6.6 RPG)
  • ILL - Ayo Dosunmu (21 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 5.3 APG)
  • ILL - Kofi Cockburn (17.3 PPG, 9.7 RPG)

Iowa-Illinois Predictions

These two teams matchup against one another extremely well which should lead to an exciting rematch on Saturday afternoon. While I do have Illinois winning this game SU, I will take Iowa and the four points as the current spread. Betting against Garza on a stage as big as this comes with added risk.

I'm more confident in the total going OVER even with the inflated 157-point line. There is just too much star power on the court in this showdown.

  • Score Prediction: Illinois 84 Iowa 82
  • Best Bets: Iowa +4
  • Best Bets: OVER

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