Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:46 AM

Ohio State vs. Michigan Predictions, Odds, Preview

Mar. 13, 2021
David Schwab
NCAA BK Expert

Saturday’s Big Ten Tournament semifinals get underway at 1 p.m. (ET) with the No. 4 seed Ohio State Buckeyes facing the No. 1 seed Michigan Wolverines. All the action from Lucas Oil Stadium will be covered nationally on CBS.


Ohio State-Michigan Betting Odds

  • Spread: Michigan -6
  • Total: 145

Odds Subject to Change

Michigan has been opened as a six-point favorite over the Buckeyes with the betting line for the total set at 145 points.

Ohio State started this tournament with a tight 79-75 win against Minnesota as an 11-point favorite. On Friday, it needed overtime to get past Purdue 87-78 favored by a point. It is now 2-4 straight-up and 1-5 against the spread in its past six games.

The Buckeyes lost to Michigan 92-87 on Feb. 21 as 1.5-point home underdogs. This snapped a SU four-game winning streak closing as underdogs. The total has gone OVER in six of their last seven March games.

Michigan made short work of Maryland on Friday with a 79-66 victory as an 8.5-point favorite. Going back to late January, the Wolverines are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games with an 8-3 record ATS.

The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last six games. Michigan is 13-7 SU in its last 20 games played in March.

Betting Analysis – Ohio State Buckeyes

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 18-8
  • ATS: 14-11-1
  • O/U: 14-11-1

Duane Washington Jr. and Justice Sueing had the hot hands in the win over Minnesota with a combined 32 points. Seth Towns scored a season-high 12 points as a key contributor in Ohio State’s overtime victory against Purdue.

E.J. Liddell remains the team’s leading scorer with 16 points per game. He has scored a combined 31 points in this year’s tournament with 10 total rebounds. The sophomore forward has eclipsed his scoring average in six of his last eight outings.

The Buckeyes are averaging 77.3 PPG and shooting 46.1% from the field. That number drops to 36% from three-point range. They are also pulling down an average of 36.1 rebounds a game.

Defensively, Ohio State has given up at least 70 points in each of its last seven games. Its points-allowed average on the year is now 70.4.

Betting Analysis – Michigan Wolverines

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 19-3
  • ATS: 16-6
  • O/U: 8-14

Michigan got tripped up by Illinois at home and Michigan State on the road with a pair of losses (SU and ATS) in its last three regular season games. The Wolverines quickly returned to top form against Maryland in their first postseason outing.

They turned a two-point lead at the half into a double-digit win by turning up the heat in the second half. Guard Mike Smith ended Thursday’s game with 18 points and 15 assists. Forward Austin Davis pulled down eight rebounds.

Center Hunter Dickinson continues to lead the team in both points (13.9) and rebounds (7.6). Michigan is scoring an average of 76.7 points with 37.5 rebounds a game.

It is shooting 48.9% from the field and 39% from three-point range. After holding opposing teams to 70 points or less in eight of their last 11 games, the Wolverines are allowing an average of 65.3 PPG this season.

Inside the Stats – Ohio State Buckeyes

  • PS/G: 77.3 (49th)
  • PA/G: 70.4 (183rd)
  • Off Rtg: 113.6 (11th)
  • Def Rtg: 103.5 (255th)

Inside the Stats – Michigan Wolverines

  • PS/G: 76.7 (59th)
  • PA/G: 65.3 (52nd)
  • Off Rtg: 112.4 (18th)
  • Def Rtg: 95.7 (67th)

Key Players to Watch

  • OHST - Duane Washington Jr. (15.5 PPG)
  • OHST - E.J. Liddell (16 PPG, 6.4 RPG)
  • MICH - Hunter Dickinson (13.9 PPG
  • MICH - Isaiah Livers (13.1 PPG, 6 RPG)

Ohio State-Michigan Predictions

Ohio State has found a spark in this tournament that was missing down the stretch run of the regular season but its current postseason run ends Saturday afternoon. Betting the Buckeyes on a first half spread might make sense. However, Michigan will wear them down by the end of the game to cover the six points on the game spread.

I also have the total going OVER the current 146-point line, with both team’s top shooters showing up for this one.

  • Score Prediction: Michigan 78 Ohio State 70
  • Best Bets: Michigan -6
  • Best Bets: OVER


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