Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:46 AM

Oklahoma State vs. Texas Predictions, Odds, Preview

Mar. 13, 2021
David Schwab
NCAA BK Expert

The No. 5 seeded Oklahoma State Cowboys square off against the No. 3 Texas Longhorns early Saturday night in the Big 12 Tournament Championship Game. Tip-off from T-Mobile Center is set for 6 p.m. (ET) on ESPN.


Oklahoma State-Texas Betting Odds

  • Spread: Texas -1.5
  • Total: 144.5

Odds Subject to Change

Texas has been opened as a slight 1.5-point favorite for this conference title showdown. The opening line for the total has been set at 144.5 points.

Oklahoma State beat West Virginia 72-69 as a 3.5-point underdog on Thursday before stunning the top-seeded Baylor Bears 83-74 in Friday’s semifinals as an 8.5-point underdog. The Cowboys are 8-1 straight-up in its last nine games. They have covered against the spread in their last eight contests.

The season series against Texas was split with the home team winning each game SU. Oklahoma State covered in each contest and the total was split. It is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games against the Longhorns.

Texas squeezed past Texas Tech 67-66 in its first tournament game as a slight 1.5-point underdog. Its semifinal matchup against Kansas was cancelled due to health protocols.

The Longhorns are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games. The total has gone OVER in 13 of their last 18 games. It has also gone OVER in 13 of their last 19 games against Oklahoma State.

Betting Analysis – Oklahoma State Cowboys

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 18-7
  • ATS: 15-9-1
  • O/U: 17-7-1

A win on Saturday night would basically hand the tournament’s Most Outstanding Player award to Cade Cunningham. The freshman guard is living up to expectations with a combined 42 points, 16 rebounds and nine assists in his first two postseason games.

He leads the Cowboys in both points (19.8) and assists (3.6) while shooting 45.2% from the field and 41.1% from three-point range. Guard Avery Anderson III (11.8 points) is one of four other players scoring at least nine points per game.

Oklahoma State is averaging 76.7 points and 38.9 rebounds a game. It is shooting 46.6% from the field and 33.9% from outside the three-point line.

After giving up at least 74 points in four of its last six games, the Cowboys’ points-allowed average this season stands at 72.2.

Betting Analysis – Texas Longhorns

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 17-7
  • ATS: 10-13-1
  • O/U: 15-9

Texas caught a huge break in not having to face Kansas in the semifinals. Guard Matt Coleman III was the hero against Texas Tech with 19 points and a couple of clutch free throws to seal the win.

The Longhorns will need their best effort from Coleman along with guards’ Andrew Jones and Courtney Ramey. This trio is accounting for more than half of the team’s 74.6-point scoring average this season.

Forwards’ Greg Brown and Jericho Sims are responsible for 13.4 of the Longhorns’ 38.6 rebounds a game. Texas is shooting 45.2% from the field and 35.5% from three-point range. Defensively, the Longhorns have not allowed more than 68 points in each of their last five contests. This has been consistent with the team’s average of 68.1 points allowed this season.

Inside the Stats – Oklahoma State Cowboys

  • PS/G: 76.7 (55th)
  • PA/G: 72.2 (234th)
  • Off Rtg: 103.2 (150th)
  • Def Rtg: 97.2 (98th)

Inside the Stats – Texas Longhorns

  • PS/G: 74.6 (93rd)
  • PA/G: 68.1 (111th)
  • Off Rtg: 106 (101st)
  • Def Rtg: 96.8 (89th)

Key Players to Watch

  • OKST - Cade Cunningham (19.8 PPG, 6.5 RPG)
  • OKST - Isaac Likekele (9.5 PPG, 6.9 RPG)
  • TEX - Matt Coleman (12.7 PPG, 4.2 APG)
  • TEX - Andrew Jones (14.7 PPG, 4.7 RPG)

Oklahoma State-Texas Predictions

Each of these teams is playing at a high level right now. Yet, the clear edge in this matchup goes to Oklahoma State coming off that impressive performance against the No. 2 team in the nation. Riding the elevated play of Cunningham for one more game, I'm going with the Cowboys SU.

I'm also going with the OVER on the total time. Defense is going to take a backseat in this matchup given each team’s ability to put points on the board.

  • Score Prediction: Oklahoma State 79 Texas 75
  • Best Bets: Oklahoma State +1.5
  • Best Bets: OVER


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