Alabama Crimson Tide vs. LSU Tigers Picks, Predictions, Odds
Saturday’s first college basketball tip-off on CBS features an SEC tilt between the No. 25 Alabama Crimson Tide and the LSU Tigers at Pete Maravich Assembly Center in Baton Rouge. This game is set to get underway at 12 p.m. (ET).
Score Prediction
LSU 78, Alabama 73
Best Bet
LSU -4.5 (-110)
ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE vs. LSU TIGERS PREDICTIONS
SEC Tournament seeding is on the line in this season finale for both teams. Alabama is 9-8 straight-up in conference play following Wednesday’s 16 point loss to Texas A&M as a 10-point home favorite. One of those nine wins came against LSU on Jan.19 with a tight three-point win at home as a 4.5-point favorite.
The Tigers are sitting at 8-9 SU in SEC play after coming up just short against Arkansas on Wednesday in a one-point loss as 5.5-point road underdogs. They have now lost three of their last four games SU in a late season slide. LSU is 20-10 SU on the year.
The winner of this game can climb as high as fifth in the final conference standings depending on various tiebreakers. Neither of these teams is playing at a high level right now as compared to earlier in the year. In a close matchup like this, my immediate lean is towards the home team. This is especially true if that team lost the first meeting between the two in the regular season series.
ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE vs. LSU TIGERS BETTING ODDS
- Alabama +165
- LSU -200
- Alabama +4.5 (-110)
- LSU -4.5 (-110)
- Over 152.5 (-110)
- Under 152.5 (-110)
ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE vs. LSU TIGERS BETTING RESOURCES
- Matchup: SEC
- Date: Saturday, March 5, 2022
- Venue: Pete Maravich Assembly Center
- Location: Baton Rouge, Louisiana
- TV-Time: CBS - 12:00 p.m. ET
ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE BETTING ANALYSIS
Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)
- SU: 19-11
- ATS: 10-20
- O/U: 19-10-1
Alabama has been a train wreck to bet on against the spread for most of the season. The Tide are 19-11 SU through 30 games with a dismal 10-20 record against the closing number. They have failed to cover in five of their last six games. The OVER on the total has been a reliable wager lately. It has gone OVER in four of their last five outings.
As one of the highest scoring teams in the nation with an average of 80.2 points per game, guard Jaden Shackleford has led the way. He is averaging 16.9 PPG and shooting 40% from the field and 36.6% from three-point range. Guard Jahvon Quinerly has been another big part of this impressive offensive effort with 14.3 points a game.
Guard Keon Ellis (11.9 points) is the team’s leading rebounder with 5.9 a game and Quinerly tops the list in assists (4.4). Shackleford has been the most prolific three point shooter on the team with 254 attempts. Ellis has shot 36.4% from outside the three-point line on 165 tries. As a team, the Tide have shot 44.6% from the field and 31.3% from three-point range. They are pulling down 39.5 rebounds and holding opposing teams to an unflattering 76.1 PPG.
LSU TIGERS BETTING ANALYSIS
Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)
- SU: 20-10
- ATS: 19-11
- O/U: 11-19
The Tigers have been able to cover in five of their last seven contests. They are 12-5 ATS at home this season and 10-8 ATS in SEC play. The total has gone OVER in eight of their last 11 games overall. Interestingly enough, the total stayed UNDER in 12 of LSU’s first 14 games this season.
LSU’s lineup runs five deep with players averaging at least nine points a game as part of a team scoring average of 73 PPG. Leading the way is forward Tari Eason with 16.8 points while pulling down 6.9 rebounds a game. He is also one of the team’s best foul shooters at 79.5%. Forward Darius Days (13.3 points) and guard Xavier Pinson (10.4) are next on the list. Days leads the Tigers in rebounds with 7.7 a game and Pinson is adding 4.6 assists. Days also leads the way in three point attempts (177) while converting on 35% of those shots.
As a team, LSU is shooting 43.9% from the field. This drops to 32.3% outside the three-point line. The team is averaging 37.8 rebounds with 12.6 a game on offense. The Tigers’ points-allowed average on defense is a more plausible 62.4.
INSIDE THE STATS - ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE
- Record: 19-11
- PS/G: 80.2 (12th)
- PA/G: 76.1 (326th)
- ORtg: 109.2 (47th)
- DRtg: 103.6 (271st)
INSIDE THE STATS - LSU TIGERS
- Record: 20-10
- PS/G: 73 (135th)
- PA/G: 62.4 (23rd)
- ORtg: 102.4 (178th)
- DRtg: 87.6 (4th)
KEY PLAYERS TO WATCH
- BAMA: Jaden Shackelford - G (16.9 pag, 5.4 rpg)
- BAMA: Jahvon Quinerly - G (14.3 ppg, 4.4 apg)
- LSU: Tari Eason - F (16.8 ppg, 6.9 rpg)
- LSU: Darius Days - F (13.3 ppg, 7.7 rpg)
ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE vs. LSU TIGERS BETTING CONCLUSION
As added motivation for Saturday’s tilt, LSU has lost its last five games against Alabama. The Tide hold a SU 7-3 edge over the last 10 meetings but the series in knotted at 5-5 ATS. The total stayed UNDER 148 points in the first meeting with Alabama winning 70-67. It has stayed UNDER in two of the last three games between the two.
Alabama’s inability to play consistent defense will also be a factor in this game. LSU has proven it can score quite a few points when it has to in an effort to win a game.
ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE vs. LSU TIGERS BETTING TRENDS
- LSU has covered the spread in three straight games.
- Alabama has failed to cover the spread in 20 of its last 30 games.
- LSU has gone OVER the point total in four of its last six home games when facing Alabama.
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