TCU vs. Gonzaga Picks, Predictions, Odds

2023 NCAA Tournament Picks
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The final game of the second round of the 2023 NCAA Tournament will pit the TCU Horned Frogs against the Gonzaga Bulldogs. The Sweet 16 will be set after this game is over, and both teams are looking to grab that spot.

Gonzaga is looking to make its seventh straight appearance in the Sweet 16, but this is one of the weaker teams we've seen out of Spokane in recent years as the Bulldogs aren't a No. 1 seed for the first time since the 2017-18 campaign. That has TCU feeling confident that it can pull off the upset.

We will see the TCU Horned Frogs take on the Gonzaga Bulldogs on Sunday, March 19, 2023, at 9:40 p.m. ET on TBS from Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado.

TCU Horned Frogs vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs Betting Preview

Most bettors are down on the Gonzaga Bulldogs after the program failed to win that elusive national championship despite being a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament for three straight seasons. Gonzaga came close to pulling off the feat in 2021 thanks to a miracle buzzer beater from Jalen Suggs to beat UCLA in the Final Four, but the Bulldogs were outclassed by Baylor in their next game. The Bulldogs lost both of their games against Big 12 opponents this season, falling to both Baylor and Texas, while the Horned Frogs split their two games against the Bears and the Longhorns. That has me loving TCU as a moderate underdog on Sunday night.

Best Bet: TCU +4
Score Prediction: TCU 77 Gonzaga 72

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TCU Horned Frogs vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs Betting Odds

TCU Horned Frogs vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs Betting Resources

Date: Sunday, Mar. 19, 2023
TV-Time: TBS, 9:40 p.m. ET
Venue: Ball Arena
Location: Denver, Colorado
Matchup
Expert Picks

TCU Horned Frogs vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs Betting Stats

TCU Horned Frogs
SU: 22-12
ATS: 16-17-1
O/U: 16-18
PPG: 75.2
OPPG: 67.9

Gonzaga Bulldogs
SU: 29-5
ATS: 13-19-1
O/U: 19-14
PPG: 86.5
OPPG: 73.9

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)
Points Per Game (PPG), Opponents Points Per Game (OPPG)

Updated on 04/23/2024

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TCU Horned Frogs Betting Analysis

The TCU administration showed they were serious about basketball by hiring Jamie Dixon away from Pittsburgh in 2016. The Horned Frogs had not been to the NCAA Tournament since 1998 before Dixon was brought in, but they have now made it to March Madness three times in the last six seasons. They had a top 25 defense this season, and that is always the key for teams coached by Dixon.

The Horned Frogs have a very good perimeter defense, allowing opponents to make just 30.8% of their threes. They rank in the top 40 in block percentage and steal percentage, so opponents need to be wary. Shahada Wells, Micah Peavy, and Damion Baugh all rank among the top 250 individual players nationally when it comes to steals, and four players rank among the top 400 in block percentage led by Chuck O'Bannon.

Mike Miles Jr. is the leading scorer on the team with 17.6 PPG, and he is making 49.2 percent of his field goals. Emanuel Miller is averaging 12.3 PPG and 6.3 RPG while making 40% of his threes, and Baugh is averaging 12.5 PPG with a team-high 5.9 APG.

Eddie Lampkin made the decision to enter the transfer portal right after Selection Sunday, so he is unavailable to play here against Gonzaga. That could be an issue for the Horned Frogs as none of their starters are taller than 6'7.

Gonzaga Bulldogs Betting Analysis

Drew Timme is still one of the best players in the country. Timme leads the Bulldogs in every major offensive category with 20.9 PPG, 7.3 RPG, and 3.2 APG. He is making 62.4% of his field goals, and he has the potential to dominate the Horned Frogs in the block with his size and strength.

Gonzaga has the best offense in the nation according to Ken Pomeroy. The Bulldogs make 58.9% of their two-pointers and 38.6% of their two-point attempts. Malachi Smith is an incredible three-point shooter that has come off the bench to hit 50% of his triples from downtown, while Julian Strawther is making 42.9% of his attempts while averaging 15.5 PPG. This team does not turn the ball over either, and that's important.

The Bulldogs aren't great on defense. Opponents are making 35.1% of their threes and 51% of their twos against Gonzaga, making this one of the weaker teams left in the NCAA Tournament in this area. They don't foul often, and they don't give teams a lot of second chances at the rim.