2023 Heisman Trophy Odds: Penix Now Odds-On Favorite as Caleb Williams Plummets

Patrick Everson Sports Betting Expert

2 minute read

Heisman Trophy odds got a good jolt from a great game in Week 7 of the college football season. Either Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. or Oregon QB Bo Nix was going to get a noteworthy boost.

With the Huskies nabbing a tight win in an exhilarating game, Penix is now the solid favorite.

Caesars Sports lead college football trader Joey Feazel chimes in on the shifting market in odds to win the Heisman Trophy.

Heisman Trophy Odds

Michael on the Move

Even before the Oregon-Washington showdown, Penix moved into the favorite's role at Caesars Sports, surpassing USC QB and reigning Heisman winner Caleb Williams. Penix was +220 to Williams' +260, while Nix sat third at +420.

After Penix led a 36-33 Washington victory, Caesars moved him to the -140 favorite. Oklahoma Sooners QB Dillon Gabriel is now the somewhat distant +800 second choice.

"What really happened last weekend was that Penix kind of separated himself from the pack," Feazel said. "For the first time this year, we're seeing a candidate in minus money."

On the flip side, Oregon QB Nix slid from the +420 third choice all the way to the +2500 eighth choice on Caesars' Heisman odds board.

Williams had a similar drop after a dismal performance in USC's 48-20 loss at Notre Dame. The Trojans star was the +260 second choice prior to Week 7, just behind Penix. Now, Williams is the +2200 seventh choice.

"Williams had a tough day, throwing three interceptions, and the USC defense gave up a lot of points again," Feazel said. "It's a big drop in his odds, obviously due to a bad game and USC not being as good as we thought."

Championship Correlation

With Southern Cal seen as a noncontender in the College Football Playoff odds market, Williams' Heisman Trophy odds took a beating. Penix led Washington to a signature win that put the Huskies firmly in the championship chase, therefore he's atop the Heisman odds board.

Washington is now the +800 third choice to win the national title, behind only +280 favorite Georgia and +300 second choice Michigan.

"The national championship and Heisman odds are correlated in some way," Feazel said. "Penix really controls his destiny as we move toward the later games. But Penix isn't gonna be a lock. We've seen crazy things in this Heisman Trophy race, and that could continue into November.

"There are certainly a lot of live quarterbacks."

That includes the aforementioned Gabriel, along with +850 third choice Jayden Daniels of LSU and +1000 fourth choice J.J. McCarthy of Michigan, among others.

Flying Under the Radar

Just behind those top four in Heisman Trophy odds is a QB leading an undefeated team that hardly anyone is talking about. North Carolina is 6-0 SU and wouldn't face Florida State until the ACC championship game.

Feazel believes that North Carolina is a dark horse in the CFP odds market, as is Tar Heels QB Drake Maye at +1100 in the Heisman market.

"I think Drake Maye is under the radar," Feazel said. "Maye is a phenomenal quarterback, and he should be the second QB taken in the NFL Draft, if it were today."

Feazel slots Maye behind Williams in the NFL Draft. But the Caesars oddsmaker is much more keen on Maye's Heisman odds than on Williams rebounding to repeat.

As for other contenders:

"With Dillon Gabriel, obviously Oklahoma controls its fate. The Sooners certainly put up numbers week-by-week," Feazel said. "Jayden Daniels already has two losses. But man, is he a gamer, on the ground and through the air."

Indeed, the LSU standout has 22 TD passes against just three INTs this season, with 2,294 yards through seven games. On the ground, Daniels has 515 rushing yards and four TDs, while averaging a healthy 6 yards per carry.

Patrick Everson

Patrick Everson is a senior reporter for VegasInsider. Based in Las Vegas since 1994, he's worked in the sports betting journalism/content space for more than a decade. He's most known for his deep roster of contacts behind sportsbook counters, providing readers and viewers with the ins-and-outs of how events are being bet. He's also a thought leader in the sports betting space, often appearing on or moderating panels at national conferences. More from Patrick Everson