College Football Conference Championship Predictions: Duke Does the Unthinkable
Image Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images
Easy come, easy go as they say. The college football regular season has come to an end, and conference championships are here. Here are my predictions for the conference championship games this weekend.
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MIAMI (OH) VS. WESTERN MICHIGAN PREDICTION
M-OH @ WMU Odds
| Time | Open | Bet365 | BetMGM | DraftKings | Caesars | FanDuel | HardRock | Fanatics | RiversCasino | Consensus | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open | | | | | | | | | | ||
| | +3 -110 | +3 -115 | +3 -110 | +3 -110 | +2.5 -105 | +2.5 -104 | +2.5 -105 | +2.5 -110 | +2.5 -110 | +3 -110 | |
| | -3 -110 | -3 -105 | -3 -110 | -3 -110 | -2.5 -115 | -2.5 -118 | -2.5 -115 | -2.5 -110 | -2.5 -113 | -3 -110 | |
| Open | | | | | | | | | | ||
| | o45.5 -110 | o44.5 -110 | o44.5 -110 | o44.5 -110 | o44.5 -108 | o44.5 -115 | o44.5 -110 | o43.5 -110 | o43.5 -113 | o44.5 -110 | |
| | u45.5 -110 | u44.5 -110 | u44.5 -110 | u44.5 -110 | u44.5 -112 | u44.5 -105 | u44.5 -110 | u43.5 -110 | u43.5 -113 | u44.5 -110 | |
| Open | | | | | | | | | | ||
| | +124 | +125 | N/A | +124 | +115 | +116 | +120 | +115 | N/A | +124 | |
| | -148 | -150 | N/A | -148 | -137 | -142 | -140 | -140 | N/A | -148 | |
| Time | Open | Bet365 | BetMGM | DraftKings | Caesars | FanDuel | HardRock | Fanatics | RiversCasino | Consensus | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open | | | | | | | | | | ||
| | +3 -110 | +0.5 -110 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +3 -110 | |
| | -3 -110 | -0.5 -110 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | -3 -110 | |
| Open | | | | | | | | | | ||
| | o45.5 -110 | o21 -110 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | o44.5 -110 | |
| | u45.5 -110 | u21 -110 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | u44.5 -110 | |
| Open | | | | | | | | | | ||
| | +124 | +105 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +124 | |
| | -148 | -125 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | -148 | |
These are two good defenses meeting up in the MAC Championship. Western Michigan is 13th in EPA/pass allowed and one of the best defenses on late downs. Miami is 16th in EPA allowed on early downs and T38th in defensive passing success rate allowed.
As far as pace goes, Miami ranks 117th, averaging 63.3 offensive plays per game while Western Michigan ranks 85th.
Western Michigan has offensive issues, ranking 91st in rush offense and 104th in EPA/dropback. I expect a low-scoring MACtion Championship game.
Prediction: Miami (OH) RedHawks @ Western Michigan Broncos u44.5 (-110)
DUKE VS. VIRGINIA PREDICTION
Duke @ Virginia Betting Odds
| Time | Open | Bet365 | DraftKings | FanDuel | Fanatics | Consensus | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open | | | | | | ||
| +2.5 -110 | +2.5 -110 | +2.5 -110 | +2.5 -100 | +2.5 -110 | +2.5 -110 | ||
| -2.5 -110 | -2.5 -110 | -2.5 -110 | -2.5 -122 | -2.5 -110 | -2.5 -110 | ||
| Open | | | | | | ||
| o57.5 -110 | o58 -110 | o57.5 -110 | o58.5 -110 | o58 -110 | o57.5 -110 | ||
| u57.5 -110 | u58 -110 | u57.5 -110 | u58.5 -110 | u58 -110 | u57.5 -110 | ||
| Open | | | | | | ||
| +110 | +115 | +110 | +118 | +115 | +110 | ||
| -130 | -135 | -130 | -142 | -140 | -130 | ||
Somehow, the 7-5 Duke Blue Devils have found themselves in the ACC Championship game. When these teams met earlier in the season, the Cavaliers beat Duke 34-17. Coming into this matchup, Duke ranks 19th in EPA/pass attempt and 23rd in overall offensive success rate.
Virginia is average at best on offense, ranking 88th in passing offense and 66th in rushing offense. Duke has the offensive advantage, and Virginia has the defensive advantage. In this even of a matchup, I am going to take the team that is getting the points.
Prediction: Duke Blue Devils +2.5 (-100)
I would love to hear from you all. You can interact with me on Threads and best of luck this week!
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