Last Updated Nov 24, 2022, 8:14 PM
College Football Week 12 Opening Odds Report
US Sports Betting Industry Expert
College football Week 12 odds reveal a dearth of high-profile games. But for teams wanting to stay in the College Football Playoff odds conversation, even low-profile games are high-profile games.
Like, for example, unbeaten and fourth-ranked TCU facing four-loss and unranked Baylor. Yet the Horned Frogs are only 2.5-point road favorites. USC and Tennessee, currently on the outside looking in, also must keep rolling against UCLA and South Carolina, respectively.
Let's dive into Week 12 college football odds and action, with insights from multiple oddsmakers and sportsbooks. Check back regularly for updates.
Opening line: USC -2.5; Over/Under 74
Time: 8 p.m. ET Saturday (FOX)
UPDATE 6 P.M. ET SATURDAY: USC is a 2-point favorite on WynnBet's college football Week 12 odds board. The Trojans opened -3 (-105), spent most of the week at various iterations of -2.5, then went to -2 Friday night.
UCLA is taking 62% of spread tickets and a healthy 82% of spread money. And while moneyline tickets are close, 71% of moneyline dollars are on the Bruins. So WynnBet needs a USC win and cover tonight.
The total is up to 76.5 from a 74 opener, with multiple stops along the way during the week. However, it's two-way play, with 60% of tickets on the Under/58% of money on the Over.
UPDATE 3 P.M. ET THURSDAY: This number bounced around a bit early on at Caesars Sports, where USC opened as a 2.5-point road favorite Sunday afternoon. The Trojans briefly touched -3.5 Sunday evening, but were back to -2.5 within a couple of hours, and they haven't budged since.
UCLA is a trendy underdog at Caesars, with spread tickets approaching 2/1 and spread money 7/1 on the Bruins.
“Even on the look-ahead [line], bettors were big fans of UCLA,” Caesars lead college football trader Joey Feazel said. “With [the Bruins'] loss last weekend, they could have possibly been a victim of looking ahead toward this USC game, and that’s why they were so poor against Arizona. So it’s interesting to see all of this UCLA money, even with USC having the only shot of making the [College Football] Playoff in the Pac-12. It’s been half-and-half with sharps on USC this season, they either love them or they hate them. In this matchup, they hate them.”
The total is already out to 76.5, reaching that point today after opening at 73.5 and making multiple stops along the way. Ticket count is 3/2 and money 4/1 on the Over.
UPDATE 2 P.M. ET MONDAY: USC (9-1 SU, 6-4 ATS) needs to keep winning and needs some chaos among the teams above it in the CFP chase. In Week 11, the Trojans throttled Colorado 55-17 to cash as hefty 34.5-point home faves.
UCLA (8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS) would love nothing more than to derail its archrival's CFP hopes. The Bruins are coming off a stinging upset, closing as 19.5-point home favorites against Arizona and losing outright 34-28.
The Trojans are already down a point to -1.5 on TwinSpires' college football Week 12 odds board. USC is netting 63% of early spread bets, but 60% of early spread dollars are on UCLA.
"This is clearly the game of the week," TwinSpires' Zachary Lucas said. "We saw sharp money come in on UCLA +2.5."
The total inched up to 74.5 early, with ticket count 2/1-plus and money 3/1 on the Over.
Opening line: Tennessee -21; Over/Under 67
Time: 7 p.m. ET Saturday (ESPN)
UPDATE 6 P.M. ET SATURDAY: An hour before kickoff, Tennessee is laying 22.5 points at WynnBet. The Vols opened -21, spent the first half of the week at -21.5 and the latter part of the week at -22.
The line went to Vols -22 today, with spread tickets running 6/1 and spread money beyond 9/1 on Tennessee. WynnBet said it needs South Carolina to cover, in one of the biggest decisions of the day.
The total went from 66 to 66.5 and back to 66 by Tuesday morning. Today, it returned to 66.5, with 54% of tickets on the Over, but 81% of cash on the Under.
UPDATE 3 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Tennessee hit Caesars' college football Week 12 odds board as a 21.5-point favorite Sunday. The Vols initially backed up to 21, then spent most of the week at 21.5 before touching 22 late Wednesday night.
Today, the Vols are back at the -21.5 opener. It's all Tennessee on the spread, with tickets running 7/1 and money beyond 9/1.
The total opened at 66.5, quickly bottomed out at 65 and has been at 66 since Monday afternoon. The Over is attracting 92% of early tickets/78% of early dollars.
UPDATE 2 P.M. ET MONDAY: Like USC, Tennessee is on the outside looking in, but is closer to the top four in the CFP. In Week 11, the Vols (9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS) rebounded from their loss at Georgia by drubbing Missouri 66-24 laying 19.5 points at home.
South Carolina should be no contest for the Vols, as the spread indicates. The Gamecocks (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS) are coming off a 38-6 loss catching 8.5 points at Florida.
Tennessee is already up a tick to -21.5 at TwinSpires. Early ticket count is 5/1 and early money 4/1 on the Vols.
"It's all Tennessee so far. This line can't be high enough," TwinSpires' Zachary Lucas said.
The total receded to 65.5, then rose a notch to 66, with 65% of tickets on the Over/57% of money on the Under.
"Sharp play on Under 67," Lucas said.
Opening line: Oklahoma -6; Over/Under 64.5
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
UPDATE 6 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Oklahoma toggled between -7 and -6.5 a couple of times early on, then went to -7.5 late Monday morning. The line then spent all week at various iterations of Sooners -7.5, before returning to -7 today.
Oklahoma State is taking a healthy 85% of spread tickets, but that's translating into just 55% of spread dollars.
The total is out to 67.5 from a 64.5 opener, with stops all along the way throughout the week. The Over is getting 58% of tickets/74% of money
UPDATE 3 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Oklahoma opened -6 and went to -7 with a few hours Sunday at Caesars Sports. Late Monday morning, the Sooners peaked at -7.5, and the number remains -7.5 this afternoon.
Bettors like the Cowboys now getting more than a touchdown on the road. Ticket count is 3/1-plus and money 2.5/1 on Oklahoma State.
Caesars' total bounced between 65 and 64.5 a couple of times Sunday/Monday, then went to 65.5 and 66 late Wednesday morning. The total is still at 66, with 52% of tickets/73% of cash on the Over.
UPDATE 2 P.M. ET MONDAY: The Bedlam game normally has huge significance in the Big 12 title chase and the CFP conversation. It's not nearly as relevant this year, particularly for a reeling Oklahoma outfit.
The Sooners (5-5 SU, 3-7 ATS) have been favored in nine of 10 games this season, yet have only a .500 record to show for it. In Week 11, Oklahoma was an 8.5-point road chalk against West Virginia and lost outright 23-20.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma State (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) halted a CFP-killing 1-3 SU skid. The Cowboys held off Iowa State 20-14 as 2.5-point home pups.
This line has been on the move early, with Oklahoma going to -6.5, then crossing -7 to -7.5 at TwinSpires. But it's not overwhelming Sooners play, at 55% of spread bets/64% of spread dollars.
"Sharp play on the Sooners early in the week," TwinSpires' Zachary Lucas said.
The total is stable at 64.5, with the Over getting 68% of tickets/62% of money.
Opening line: Georgia -22.5; Over/Under 49.5
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday (CBS)
UPDATE 1:45 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Georgia is a 22.5-point home chalk at WynnBet, less than two hours before kickoff. In fact, WynnBet hasn't budged off Bulldogs -22.5 all week, save for a couple of juice adjustments. Georgia opened -22.5 (-115) and had a Wednesday/Thursday stint at -22.5 (-105), but otherwise has been -22.5 flat.
Point-spread ticket count is 2.5/1 and spread money 4/1-plus on the Bulldogs.
The total opened at 49.5 and by Friday night reached a low point of 47.5, where the number remains now. Ticket count is dead even, but a hefty 91% of cash is on the Under.
WynnBet said it will need Kentucky to cover and the Over.
UPDATE 3 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Caesars Sports opened Georgia as a hefty 23-point chalk in its college football Week 12 odds market and has spent pretty much all week at Bulldogs -22. Point-spread tickets are 2/1 Georgia and money almost 4/1 Georgia.
The total toggled between 49.5 and 49 a couple of times over the past four days. It's been stable at 49 since Wednesday morning, with 57% of early tickets and a hefty 97% of early cash on the Under.
UPDATE 2 P.M. ET MONDAY: Georgia continues its pursuit of a second straight national championship, with seemingly the only roadblock being LSU in the Dec. 3 SEC championship game. The Bulldogs (10-0 SU, 6-4 ATS) coasted past Mississippi State 45-19 giving 16.5 points on the road in Week 11.
After a 4-0 SU start, Kentucky (6-4 SU and ATS) has seen its season fall apart. And the latest setback was easily the most stunning. The Wildcats closed as 17.5-point home favorites against SEC doormat Vanderbilt and lost outright 24-21.
Georgia is stable at -22.5 on TwinSpires' college football Week 12 odds board. The Bulldogs are seeing 55% of early tickets/52% of early cash.
"This game isn't getting a lot of attention so far," TwinSpires' Zachary Lucas said.
The total is down a notch to 49, with 53% of tickets/59% of money on the Under.
Opening line: TCU -2.5; Over/Under 56.5
Time: Noon ET Saturday (FOX)
UPDATE 11:30 A.M. ET SATURDAY: Thirty minutes before kickoff, the Horned Frogs are laying 2 points at WynnBet. TCU opened -3 (-105) on Sunday, dipped to -2.5 Tuesday, then to -2 Friday night.
Ticket count is 4/1-plus and money 8/1 on TCU. Bettors are hitting the Horned Frogs moneyline too, with tickets 2/1 and money 4/1. WynnBet said Baylor is the need in one of the bigger decisions of the day.
The total opened at 56.5, peaked at 58 midweek, fell to 57 Thursday afternoon, then returned to 58 this morning. The Over is getting 78% of tickets and a hefty 96% of cash.
UPDATE 3 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Caesars Sports pegged TCU a 2-point road chalk Sunday afternoon and initially backed up to -1.5. But by Sunday evening, the Horned Frogs were out to -3, where they remained until dipping to -2.5 Tuesday.
Texas Christian remains -2.5 this afternoon and, per usual with its 8-1-1 ATS record, is seeing plenty of public action. Point-spread ticket count is 5/1 and spread money beyond 3/1 on the Horned Frogs.
“The sharps keep doubting TCU, but the public keeps cashing tickets on them,” Caesars Sports lead college football trader Joey Feazel said. “Obviously, TCU has a lot to play for. If they lose one game, in my opinion they’re most likely out of the playoff. The public is definitely all over them again here. But when the line goes up to 3, it’s going to get bet back down by a sharp. So I’d say that it’s trending toward us staying at 2.5.”
The total opened at 56.5, leapt to 58 Monday afternoon, receded to 57.5 Monday night, then returned to 58 Wednesday afternoon. This afternoon, it backed up to 57, with the Over getting 78% of tickets, but just 56% of cash.
UPDATE 2 P.M. ET MONDAY: TCU is No. 4 in the latest AP poll and was No. 4 in last week's CFP rankings. The new CFP rankings don't drop until Tuesday night, but it's pretty safe to assume the Horned Frogs will remain No. 4 after their efforts in Week 11.
Texas Christian went to Texas as a 7.5-point underdog and emerged with a 17-10 outright victory, moving to 10-0 SU and a robust 8-1-1 ATS. The Horned Frogs are the No. 1 spread-covering team in the nation.
On the flip side, Baylor just had its three-game SU and ATS win streak halted in embarrassing fashion. The Bears (6-4 SU and ATS) closed as 2.5-point home favorites against Kansas State and got roasted 31-3.
TwinSpires Sportsbook is already up a half-point to TCU -3, with 72% of early tickets/75% of early money on the Horned Frogs.
"TCU has been killing us all year, and we'll be rooting against them again. Let's see if the Cinderella story continues," TwinSpires director of retail sports Zachary Lucas said.
The total is already up to 58, with 61% of tickets/66% of money on the Over.
Opening line: Michigan -17; Over/Under 43.5
Time: Noon ET Saturday (ABC)
UPDATE 11:30 A.M. ET SATURDAY: As kickoff approaches, Michigan is a 17-point chalk at WynnBet. The Wolverines opened -17 (-115) on Sunday, spent most of the week at -18, fell to -17.5 Friday and -17 this morning.
Illinois is seeing 53% of spread tickets and 62% of spread money.
The total tumbled from 46 to 40.5 by midweek, and has been at 41.5 since Friday morning. However, that's primarily due to very cold/windy weather today in Ann Arbor.
Ticket count is 2.5/1 and money 3/1-plus on the Over, and WynnBet's biggest need in this game is on the Under.
UPDATE 3 P.M. ET THURSDAY: The Wolverines opened -17 Sunday afternoon at Caesars Sports and stretched to -18 by Monday afternoon. Michigan hasn't moved off -18 since then.
This matchup has seen interesting action at Caesars. Spread tickets are running 2/1 on Michigan, but spread cash is nearly 9/1 on Illinois. That's pretty much entirely due to a $200,000 bet on Illinois +18.
The total at Caesars has been more active, opening at 44.5 and touching every half-point on the way down to 40.5 Wednesday evening. It's expected to be cold and windy Saturday in Ann Arbor, with a high of 29 and breezes of 15-25 mph.
The Under is getting 56% of bets/72% of money at Caesars.
UPDATE 2 P.M. ET MONDAY: Michigan (10-0 SU, 7-3 ATS) is just biding its time until the Nov. 26 showdown against Ohio State. In Week 11, the Wolverines dumped Nebraska 34-3, narrowly cashing as 30.5-point favorites.
Illinois let a 7-1 SU start slip away and is now in a dogfight to represent the Big Ten West in the conference championship game. The Fighting Illini (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) have dropped two in a row, including a 31-24 Week 11 home loss laying 6.5 points against Purdue.
Michigan is up to -17.5 in TwinSpires' college football Week 12 odds market, with early ticket count 4/1 and early cash just shy of 3/1.
"The public is all over Michigan early. It's lopsided ticket count already, and I expect that to continue," TwinSpires' Zachary Lucas said.
The total nudged down to 43, with 55% of early tickets on the Over/58% of early cash on the Under