Last Updated Oct 06, 2022, 4:43 PM
College Football Odds Week 5: Opening Line and Action Report
US Sports Betting Industry Expert
College Football Week 5 odds feature a few matchups pitting ranked teams against each other, including two in the SEC. No. 2 Alabama travels to No. 20 Arkansas, and No. 7 Kentucky visits No. 14 Mississippi.
Plus, there's a top-10 battle in the ACC between unbeatens North Carolina State and Clemson.
Let's dive into Week 5 college football odds and action, with insights from multiple oddsmakers and sportsbooks. Check back regularly for updates.
Opening line: Clemson -7; Over/Under 46
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday (ABC)
UPDATE 9 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Shortly before kickoff, Clemson is a 6.5-point chalk at WynnBet. On Sunday night, the Tigers opened -7 and stuck at various iterations of that number all week. Clemson inched down to -6.5 this morning.
Point-spread ticket count dead even, and money is pretty close, too, at 55% on Clemson.
The total opened at 45.5, and between sharp bettors and oddsmakers looking to get ahead of potential Hurricane Ian impacts, the number plunged to 39.5 by midweek. However, the total rebounded to 45 by this morning. Ticket count is 5/1 and money 2/1 on the Over.
UPDATE 3 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Clemson hit Caesars Sports' college football Week 5 odds board as an 8-point chalk Sunday afternoon and within a few hours adjusted down to -6.5. The number has since bounced between Tigers -6.5 and -7 multiple times, and it's currently -7.
North Carolina State is taking 59% of early spread bets and 64% of early spread dollars.
"Many bettors don’t really trust DJ [Uiagalelei], that’s what this comes down to,” Caesars lead college football trader Joey Feazel said. “He didn’t play terribly last week, but people thought Wake Forest should have won that game. In the beginning of the year, N.C. State was one of those teams that people were really on top of. They had that big scare Week 1 against East Carolina and not many impressive wins after that, so this will be an interesting matchup for them. But it’s in the hands of DJ and how that offense performs against the N.C. State defense.”
The total is being impacted by the path of Hurricane Ian. Caesars opened at 46.5 and plunged to 39.5 by late Tuesday morning. It's since rebounded to 43. Betting splits aren't available today.
UPDATE 3 P.M. ET MONDAY: Clemson is off to a 4-0 SU start, but the Tigers covered in just one of those four tilts (1-3 ATS). This past weekend, Dabo Swinney's troops went to Wake Forest as 7.5-point favorites and jumped out to a 14-0 first quarter lead.
But it was a dogfight/shootout the rest of the way, with Wake taking the lead multiple times. Clemson tied it at 38 with four minutes left in the fourth quarter, forcing overtime. The Tigers then won 51-45 in double OT.
N.C. State (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) got a decent Week 3 win over Texas Tech, but takes a big step up in competition this week. In Week 4, the Wolfpack rolled over UConn 41-10, but didn't cover the 38-point spread.
Clemson is down a tick to -6.5 at TwinSpires, where the Tigers are taking 67% of early tickets, but just 53% of early money.
"Sharp play on N.C. State +7," Lucas said.
The total has already tumbled to 42.5 from a 46 opener, with 54% of bets on the Over, but 78% of cash on the Under.
"Sharp play on the Under early in the week," Lucas said.
Opening line: Alabama -16.5; Over/Under 62
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday (CBS)
UPDATE 3:15 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Shortly before kickoff, Alabama is an XX-point favorite at DraftKings. The Crimson Tide opened at -14 and quicky advanced to -15.5, then to -16.5 Sunday night. By late Tuesday night, 'Bama moved to -17.5, then toggled between -17.5 and -17 the rest of the week.
Alabama is now -17, while Arkansas is drawing 69% of spread bets and 60% of spread money.
The total opened at 62, backed up to 60.5 Monday and 60 Tuesday. It returned to 61 Friday, where it sits now, with 71% of tickets/78% of money on the Over.
UPDATE 3 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Caesars Sports opened Alabama at -14.5 Sunday afternoon, and within about 24 hours, the Crimson Tide were up to -17. On Tuesday, 'Bama went to -17.5, and the number has been stable at -17 since Wednesday night.
Point-spread ticket count is about 2/1 on underdog Arkansas, but spread money is 2/1 on road chalk Alabama, about 48 hours ahead of kickoff.
"I think what the public is seeing with Arkansas is that they do have an explosive offense,” Caesars lead college football trader Joey Feazel said. “They think that Arkansas can hang in that 14- to 17-point range with Alabama, because they can keep up with their scoring. But there are big questions about that Arkansas defense, and now they have to go up against Bryce Young. This has definitely been a public vs. sharps game, but we’ll see how Arkansas shows up after that disappointing loss to Texas A&M last week.”
The total opened at 62 and has been a steady 61 since Monday. Betting splits aren't available today.
UPDATE 3 P.M. ET MONDAY: Alabama is out of the gate at 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS, though that lone non-cover came against the only good opponent the Crimson Tide have seen this season. In Week 2, 'Bama narrowly escaped Texas with a 20-19 win as a 21-point favorite.
In Week 4 against Vanderbilt, Alabama closed as a 40.5-point home favorite and rolled to a 55-3 victory. The Crimson Tide's Week 5 game at Arkansas has the shortest spread of any 'Bama game so far this season.
Arkansas (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) saw their early unbeaten mark fall by the wayside in a neutral-site Week 4 game against Texas A&M. Playing at AT&T Stadium, the Razorbacks jumped out to 14-0 first-quarter lead. But A&M scored the next 23 points, and Arkansas fell short 23-21 as a 1.5-point underdog.
Alabama is already up a point to -17.5 at TwinSpires Sportsbook, although early action is very even. Arkansas is netting 51% of spread tickets, while 'Bama is seeing 52% of spread money.
"It's virtually split so far. We're not seeing the usual lopsided Alabama money," TwinSpires director of retail sports Zachary Lucas said.
The total is down a point to 61, with 57% of early tickets/54% of early cash on the Under.
Opening line: Baylor -1.5; Over/Under 55
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday (FOX)
UPDATE 3:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Baylor opened -2 in DraftKings' college football Week 5 odds market, then spent pretty much all week at -2.5. Tickets and money are running 2/1 on the Bears.
The total opened at 55, bottomed out at 54.5 Sunday night, rose to 57 by Monday night, then receded to 55.5 by Friday morning. Prekick, it was at 56, with ticket count 3/1 and money just shy of 2/1 on the Over.
UPDATE 3 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Baylor opened as a 1.5-point favorite Sunday afternoon in Caesars' college football Week 5 odds market. By late Sunday night/early Monday, the Bears were out to -2.5, where they stuck until backing up to -2 Wednesday morning.
Early spread tickets are running 2/1 and early spread money 4/1 on short home favorite Baylor.
The total opened at 55 and has been at 56.5 since Monday night. Betting splits aren't available today.
UPDATE 3 P.M. ET MONDAY: Oklahoma State (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) puts its unbeaten mark on the line in its Big 12 opener, the first time this season that the Cowboys are underdogs. And the Pokes are coming off an early bye week. In Week 3, laying 54.5 points against FCS foe Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Oklahoma State rumbled to a 63-7 home victory.
Meanwhile, Baylor (3-1 SU and ATS) already suffered an overtime loss in Week 2 at BYU and can ill afford another setback. The Bears opened Big 12 play in Week 4 as 2.5-point road pups against Iowa State and snagged a 31-24 victory.
The Bears are now -2.5 at TwinSpires, taking 61% of early dollars, while 59% of early tickets are on the Cowboys.
"Sharp play on Baylor has pushed this line up a point already," Lucas said.
The total nudged down to 54.5, though 63% of early tickets/57% of early dollars are on the Over.
Opening line: Mississippi -6; Over/Under 55.5
Time: Noon ET Saturday (ESPN)
UPDATE 11:30 A.M. ET SATURDAY: Thirty minutes before kickoff, DraftKings has Mississippi at -6.5. The Rebels opened -4 on Sunday afternoon and shot to -6.5 by Sunday night, then got to -7 Wednesday.
Ole Miss was then at several iterations of -7 before falling back to -6.5 today, and the Rebels are now -6.5 (-105). Ticket count is 2.5/1 and money 2/1-plus on Kentucky.
The total fell from 55.5 to 54.5 by Monday, then to 53.5 Wednesday, returned to 54.5 Thursday and is at 55 now. The Under is taking 60% of tickets, while 61% of money is on the Over.
UPDATE 3 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Ole Miss opened -4.5 Sunday afternoon and within just a few hours stretched to -6.5 in Caesars Sports' college football Week 5 odds market. The line has since toggled between Rebels -6.5 and -7 a couple of times, and it's been steady at -7 since lunch hour Wednesday.
Although the spread has climbed, ticket count is running 3/1-plus and money just shy of 2/1 on underdog Kentucky.
“I think the big key that may be attracting some Kentucky action is that [running back] Chris Rodriguez is back this week,” Caesars Sports' Joey Feazel said. “Will Levis has been getting draft hype, but if we talk about their explosiveness last year, it really came down to Rodriguez. Kentucky’s also done it before as an underdog this season. They came in and beat Florida in The Swamp after Utah couldn’t do it. There was so much hype around Florida after the Utah win, and Kentucky going in and winning handily was impressive.”
The total opened at 55.5 and steadily dipped to 53.5 by Wednesday. Betting splits aren't available today.
UPDATE 3 P.M. ET MONDAY: Kentucky is among four SEC teams in the top eight of the AP poll. The Wildcats (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) got more of a fight than expected from Northern Illinois in Week 5. The 'Cats pulled away from a 14-14 halftime tie to post a 31-23 victory, though they failed to cash as hefty 27-point home favorites.
While Kentucky has already faced one strong test, winning at Florida in Week 2, Ole Miss (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) will face its sternest challenge by far this week. The Rebels held a 35-17 halftime lead against Tulsa in Week 4, then put it in cruise control and didn't score again, winning 35-27 as 21-point home faves.
Ole Miss is up a half-point to -6.5 on TwinSpires Sportsbook's college football Week 5 odds board. Kentucky is seeing 62% of early bets, but 65% of early cash is on the home favorite.
"It's early, but we're seeing a Pros vs Joes split already. The pros are on Ole Miss," Lucas said.
The total is down a point to 54.5, with 66% of bets on the Over/55% of dollars on the Under.
Opening line: Michigan -9.5; Over/Under 43
Time: Noon ET Saturday (FOX)
UPDATE 11:30 A.M. ET SATURDAY: Michigan went from -10.5 to -10 and back to -10.5 by late Sunday night at DraftKings. The Wolverines advanced to -11 Wednesday morning, fell to -10.5 Thursday evening and went to -10 in the past hour.
Michigan is now -10.5 (-105), while taking 64% of spread bets and 61% of spread dollars.
The total opened at 43.5, fell to 42 by late Monday night and has since been fairly stable at 42. The Over is getting 56% of tickets, while 55% of cash is on the Under.
UPDATE 3 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Caesars Sports pegged Michigan a 9.5-point favorite at Sunday's outset and moved out to -11 by Sunday night. Since then, the Wolverines have toggled a couple times between -11 and -10.5, and they're currently at -11.
The Wolverines are seeing 59% of spread tickets/65% of spread money.
The total opened at 44 and on Monday evening bottomed out at 42, where it remains this afternoon. Betting splits aren't available today.
UPDATE 3 P.M. ET MONDAY: After three straight blowouts, Michigan (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) finally met some resistance in Week 4. The Wolverines, who put up 50-plus points in each of their first three outings, held off Maryland 34-27. That was well short of covering the 17-point spread.
After scoring a total of 14 points in its first two games, Iowa looks comparatively like an offensive juggernaut with two straight 27-point performances. In Week 4, the Hawkeyes (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) won 27-10 as 7.5-point favorites at Rutgers.
Michigan moved to -10 and is now -10.5 in TwinSpires' college football Week 5 odds market. That said, Iowa is taking 53% of early tickets and Michigan 54% of early money on the spread.
"Good two-way action to start the week," Lucas said.
The total inched from 43 to 42.5, with 60% of tickets/69% of cash on the Under.
Opening line: Washington -2.5; Over/Under 65
Time: 10:30 p.m. ET Friday (ESPN)
UPDATE 3 P.M. ET THURSDAY: On Sunday afternoon, Caesars Sports opened Washington at -3, and the line dipped to -2 within an hour. The line then spent Sunday evening bouncing between -2.5 and -3, then got to Huskies -3.5 late Monday morning.
Since Tuesday afternoon, the number has been at various iterations of Washington -2.5 or -3. It's currently Huskies -3, with early ticket count 5/1 and early money 3/1 on the road favorite.
“Bettors like this Washington team. They like the new coach [Kalen DeBoer] and the way [quarterback Michael] Penix [Jr.] is playing,” Caesars lead college football trader Joey Feazel said. “This UCLA team may not be as good as their 4-0 record suggests, given how they’ve played against lesser competition. If you look at the preseason odds to win the Pac-12, UCLA was in that fourth spot behind Oregon, and Washington was somewhere in the 15/1 range. Now it’s Week 5, and Washington is laying 3 on the road, and bettors can’t get enough of it.
"I can see this moving to 3.5 [again], even though it seems a lot for Washington being on the road. And on paper, these teams are closer together.”
Caesars opened the total at 65, bottomed out at 64 Monday, peaked at 66 Wednesday and is now at 64.5. Betting splits aren't available today.
UPDATE 3 P.M. ET MONDAY: Perhaps surprisingly, both these teams are unbeaten. That said, Washington (4-0 SU and ATS) has the more impressive resume, including a big Week 3 home win over then-No. 11 Michigan State. In Week 4, the Huskies opened Pac-12 play with a 40-22 victory laying 14 points against visiting Stanford.
By contrast, UCLA's toughest test so far came from South Alabama, a game the Bruins nearly lost as 16-point home favorites in Week 3. UCLA (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) needed a field goal as time expired to get a 32-31 victory. This past week, the Bruins had a much easier time as 22-point faves at Colorado, coasting to a 45-17 victory.
Washington has already crossed -3 on the way to -3.5 on TwinSpires' college football Week 5 odds board. Early ticket count is approaching 2/1 and early money is 3/1-plus on the Huskies.
"It's a mix of sharp and public play on the Huskies so far. No buyback yet on UCLA," Lucas said.
The total rose from 65 to 65.5, with ticket count 2.5/1 and money 2/1 on the Over.