Last Updated Sep 12, 2022, 4:53 PM
College Football Week 1 Opening Odds Report
US Sports Betting Industry Expert
College Football Week 1 odds represent a 180-degree turn from Week 0. While last week's schedule had little to write home about, this week's docket will make you want to write a five-page letter.
Leading the way: Defending national champion and third-ranked Georgia meets No. 12 Oregon, in a quasi-neutral-site game in Atlanta; and No. 5 Notre Dame travels to No. 2 Ohio State.
Let's dive into Week 1 college football odds and action, with insights from multiple sportsbooks. Check back regularly for updates.
College Football Week 1 Odds
Opening line: Clemson -18; Over/Under 50
Time: 8 p.m. ET Monday (ESPN)
UPDATE 7:30 P.M. ET MONDAY: With game time 30 minutes out, Clemson is laying 24 points at BetMGM Nevada. This game opened back in June with Clemson a 19-point favorite. The bulk of the movement has come over the past two weeks, with the Tigers going from -21 to -24. The number got to 23.5 Sunday and 24 early this afternoon.
"It's just climbed steadily. Tickets are 4/1 Clemson and money is 9/1 Clemson," BetMGM's Scott Shelton said of action at the sportsbook's Vegas operations. "It's all Clemson, a lot of tickets."
Further, there's live parlay liability to Clemson.
"Clemson is the last piece for a lot of parlays, teasers and moneyline parlay tickets," Shelton said.
The total opened at 50 and initially receded to 49, but it's now up to 51.
"Tickets are 2/1 and money 7/1 on the Over," Shelton said, noting the cash discrepancy is largely due to a $25,000 play on Over 51 at BetMGM Nevada. "A Georgia Tech cover and Under would be ideal."
Nationally at BetMGM, per data analyst John Ewing, point-spread ticket count is 3/1 and money 5/1 on Clemson. However, betting on the total is much more balanced, with 58% of bets/52$ of money on the Over.
UPDATE 3:30 P.M. ET MONDAY: A few hours ahead of kickoff, PointsBet USA's college football week 1 odds market has Clemson out to a 24-point favorite. This quasi-neutral-site matchup – at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, minutes from the Georgia Tech campus – opened Clemson -18.5 more than three months ago.
By early August, the Tigers were full three-touchdown favorites. The line hit -22 a week ago, -23 Thursday and -24 early this afternoon. Point-spread ticket count is 3/1-plus and point-spread money almost 5/1 on Clemson.
The total opened at 50 and backtracked to 48.5 in early August. However, by Wednesday, it rebounded to 51, which is where it sits now. The Over is netting 68% of tickets, while 54% of cash is on the Under.
UPDATE 3 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Clemson took a circuitous route to its current role as a 23-point favorite for a standalone Monday night game vs Georgia Tech. Caesars Sports opened the Tigers at -21.5 in April, dipped as low as -18.5 in mid-July, then rebounded to -21 by Aug. 26. Over the past few days, Clemson continued rising and now stands at -23.
Point-spread ticket count and money overwhelmingly favor the Tigers. Clemson is taking almost five of every six bets and more than nine of every 10 dollars wagered.
UPDATE 3 P.M. ET MONDAY: Like the Saturday Oregon-Georgia matchup, this game will also be played at Atlanta's Mercedes Benz Stadium. So while it's a "neutral site," it's pretty much a stone's throw from the Georgia Tech campus.
Clemson is coming off a down year by its lofty standards. The Tigers finished 10-3 SU/5-8 ATS, setting for a Cheez-It Bowl bid, rather than their customary spot in the CFP. In that bowl game, Clemson topped Iowa State 20-13 as a 2-point favorite.
Georgia Tech would take Clemson's "down" year pretty much every season. The Yellow Jackets went 3-9 SU/4-8 ATS last year.
If Clemson-Georgia Tech wasn't a standalone tilt on Monday night, it wouldn't make the cut for this report. But if you want to watch/bet on football Monday, this is your lone outlet. In late May, the Tigers opened -18 in TwinSpires College Football Week 1 odds market. Clemson rose to -19 in late June, and in early August, Dabo Swinney's troops reached -21.5, where the number rests now.
Point-spread ticket count is just shy of 2/1 and money just beyond 2/1 on Clemson.
"Liability will likely grow, since Clemson will be the last leg of a lot of parlays," Lucas said.
The total opened at 50, bottomed out at 47.5 in early August and is now 48.5.
"Sharp play on the Under," Lucas said.
Opening line: Pittsburgh -6.5; Over/Under 54.5
Time: 7 p.m. ET Thursday (ESPN)
UPDATE 5 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Two hours before kickoff, Pittsburgh is a 7.5-point chalk in The SuperBook's college football Week 1 odds market. That's up 1.5 points from the -6 opener, and the book's need tonight backs up the move.
"This game is shaping up for us to need West Virginia pretty good here," SuperBook senior risk supervisor Casey Degnon said. "Ticket count and money are just about double in favor of Pitt. Not a ton of moneyline action, but we'll definitely be rooting for the Mountaineers to cover the number."
The total opened at 53.5 and is down to 51, though that belies a modest need.
"We need the Under, but nothing significant," Degnon said.
UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: DraftKings opened Pittsburgh at -7 (-120) back in May. The Panthers then spent more than three months at various iterations of -7, priced at even money, -105, -110 and -115. However, on Sunday, Pitt moved to -7.5, and on Tuesday, DK went to -7.5 (-115).
The Panthers are now back at 7.5 flat. It's two-way point-spread action, but with a lean toward underdog West Virginia, at 52% of bets/57% of money.
The total opened at 55.5, dipped to 52 by Aug. 1 and bottomed out at 50.5 on Tuesday. This afternoon, the total rebounded to 52.5, and it's now at 51.5. The Over is seeing 71% of bets, but money is running dead even.
UPDATE 1 P.M. ET MONDAY: Behind star QB Kenny Pickett, Pitt went 11-3 SU/10-4 ATS last season, winning the ACC championship. But Pickett, who went on to be the Pittsburgh Steelers' first-round draft pick, opted to sit out the Peach Bowl. The Panthers lost to Michigan State 31-21 as 3-point 'dogs.
West Virginia did just enough to get a bowl bid last year, going 6-6 SU and ATS in the regular season. The Mountaineers then lost 18-6 getting 6 points against Minnesota in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl.
TwinSpires moved host Pitt out to -7.5 in early August, then spent much of the month toggling between -6.5 and -7.5. The Panthers are now -7.5, with 56% of early tickets on West Virginia and 58% of early dollars on Pitt.
"Small sharp play on Pitt, and sharp play on the Under," Lucas said.
The total dropped 3 points to 51.5, with ticket count almost even, but 74% of money on the Under.
Opening line: Penn State -3.5; Over/Under 54.5
Time: 8 p.m. ET Thursday (FOX)
UPDATE 5 P.M. ET THURSDAY: With three hours until kickoff, Penn State is right where it's been since this line posted months ago: a 3.5-point favorite. But there's liability to the Nittany Lions.
"A lot of public money on favored Penn State," The SuperBook's Degnon said. "We'll need the home 'dog Purdue Boilermakers to cover the number, and hopefully win outright."
The total is down a point to 53.5, but the situation is much like it is for West Virginia-Pitt.
"Again, public money on the Over, but nothing significant," Degnon said.
UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Penn State hit DraftKings' College Football Week 1 odds market as a 2-point road chalk in May. The Nittany Lions quickly moved out to -3, and their price at that number peaked at -125 a week ago. On Monday, Penn State rose to -3.5, and the Nittany Lions have since toggled between various iterations of -3.5 and -3.
Currently, Penn State is at -3.5 (-105), with point-spread ticket count running 3/1 and money almost 3/1 on the Nittany Lions.
The total opened at 54.5 and stuck there until dipping to 53.5 Monday. On Tuesday, the total dipped to 52.5, and it's now at 53 (Under -115). The Over is netting 62% of tickets, but 66% of cash is on the Under.
UPDATE 1 P.M. ET MONDAY: Penn State went 7-6 SU and ATS in its 2021 campaign. In the season finale, the Nittany Lions closed as 3.5-point underdogs to Arkansas in the Outback Bowl and lost 24-10.
Purdue finished 9-4 SU/8-5 ATS last season. The Boilermakers wrapped up the year in the Music City Bowl, notching a riveting 48-45 overtime victory as 7.5-point pups against Tennessee.
Visiting Penn State has been a stable 3.5-point chalk on TwinSpires' College Football Week 1 odds board. Ticket count is 2/1 and money almost 3/1 on Penn State for this Thursday night prime-time game.
"Purdue will be one of our bigger needs this week," Lucas said.
The total briefly inched down to 54 before returning to the 54.5 opener. The Under is drawing 54% of tickets, while 55% of money is on the Over.
Opening line: Georgia -18.5; Over/Under 50.5
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday (ABC)
UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Way back on May 14, DraftKings opened Georgia -14 in the college football Week 1 odds market. By the end of May, the Bulldogs were out to -17, where they spent much of the summer. On Aug. 21, the Dawgs peaked at -17.5, but by this morning, Georgia dialed back to -16.
It's two-way action on the point spread, with 52% of tickets/53% of cash on the favored Bulldogs.
The total opened at 50.5 and this morning reached its peak at 55. However, the action isn't as lopsided as that climb might suggest, with 61% of tickets/51% of money on the Over at DraftKings.
UPDATE 3 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Caesars Sports pegged Georgia as a 15-point favorite when this game opened months ago. The Bulldogs peaked at -18, spending most of July at that number, and the line receded to -16 by early this afternoon. Oregon is taking 68% of spread bets/61% of spread dollars.
"Last year, Oregon had that big upset early over Ohio State," Caesars lead college football trader Joey Feazel said in a Friday release. "One interesting thing is that the new Oregon head coach, Dan Lanning, was Georgia's defensive coordinator last year. Does he have an edge, or does Georgia have an edge knowing how his defense is going to play?
"This is basically a home game for Georgia, and they're still going to be a talented team, even after losing all of those defensive starters. But they only returned five defensive starters ahead of last season and still had the nation's best defense."
UPDATE 1 P.M. ET MONDAY: Georgia went 14-1 SU/10-5 ATS en route to winning the College Football Playoff last season. In the title game, the Bulldogs took down SEC rival Alabama 33-18 as a 3-point favorite.
Meanwhile, Oregon went 10-4 SU, but 5-9 ATS and finished with a couple of big thuds. As 3-point pups in the Pac-12 title game, the Ducks got run by Utah 38-10. Subsequently in the Alamo Bowl, Oregon lost 47-32 catching 7 points against Oklahoma.
Georgia is a hefty favorite in TwinSpires College Football Week One odds market, opening -18.5 at the end of May. But the line has ticked down a point, now sitting at -17.5. Oregon is taking 56% of tickets, while a slim majority 52% of cash is on the Bulldogs.
"Great two-way action leading into this matchup," Lucas said.
The total is up a point to 51.5, with the Over seeing 58% of early tickets/68% of early cash.
Opening line: Ohio State -14.5; Over/Under 57.5
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday (ABC)
UPDATE 5 P.M. ET SATURDAY: With 2.5 hours until kickoff, Ohio State is a 17-point favorite at WynnBet, after opening -14 back in May. However, Notre Dame is drawing 57% of spread bets and 58% of spread money.
But WynnBet said a Fighting Irish outright upset is the need, largely due to Ohio State liability in moneyline parlays.
The total opened at 58, was at 59 this morning and is now at 58.5. The Over is netting 58% of bets/67% of money.
UPDATE 3 P.M. ET FRIDAY: With just one more sleep until this massive matchup on the college football Week 1 odds board, Caesars Sports has Ohio State as a hefty 17-point home chalk. That's up 4 points from the Buckeyes -13 opener way back in mid-April.
By mid-May, Ohio State was already at -14.5. The Buckeyes reached -15.5 in mid-August and peaked at -17.5 on Sunday. The number ticked back to -17 on Tuesday. However, Notre Dame is drawing 63% of spread bets, and spread money is running almost dead even. And there are bettors taking fliers on Notre Dame moneyline +550.
"Notre Dame has some key injuries that have driven that line up," Caesars lead college football trader Joey Feazel said. "There's certainly very high expectations for Ohio State, but I don't know if [bettors] want to lay 17 points here. It's crazy that Ohio State is ranked No. 2 and Notre Dame is No. 5, and it's that big of a spread, just because it's that big of a talent difference.
"I think if Notre Dame wants to stay in this game, they can't get in a shootout with Ohio State. They have to control the ball and keep C.J. Stroud on the sideline."
UPDATE 1 P.M. ET MONDAY: It's kind of hard to believe that a matchup of two of the nation's top five teams has a spread that's already out to -17. But such is the perceived gap between the Buckeyes and the Fighting Irish.
Ohio State is coming off an 11-2 SU campaign (7-5-1 ATS). The Buckeyes capped the season with a wildly entertaining 48-45 win over Utah in the Rose Bowl, but failed to cash as 4-point favorites.
Notre Dame went 11-2 SU and a solid 9-4 ATS last season. The Irish finished with a 37-35 Fiesta Bowl loss to Oklahoma State, failing to cover as 1-point underdogs.
For Saturday night's game at the Horseshoe, TwinSpires moved Ohio State to -16.5 in mid-August before moving onward to -17. Point-spread ticket count is almost 2/1 on visiting Notre Dame, but spread cash is 2/1 on Ohio State.
"The public is grabbing the points, while sharp action is on Ohio State," Lucas said of early action on this showdown.
The total is up a notch to 58, with 62% of bets/58% of cash on the Over.
Opening line: Arkansas -6.5; Over/Under 54
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday (ESPN)
UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: DraftKings opened Arkansas as an 8.5-point chalk back in mid-May, but that didn't last long. Within a week, the Razorbacks were down to -7. That number held until Aug. 23, when the Hogs dipped to -6.5, and they then went to -6 Aug. 26. The number has bounced between 6, 6.5 and 7 a few times since and is now at Arkansas -6.5.
Point-spread ticket count and money are both in the 3/1 range on Arkansas.
The total opened at 53, got to 54 in early June, then receded to 52 by early August. It's been climbing over the past couple of days and is now at 53.5. Ticket count is 3/1 and money 3/2 on the Over.
UPDATE 3 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Arkansas hit Caesars' college football Week 1 odds market months ago as an 8.5-point favorite. The Razorbacks dipped to -7 by late May and bottomed out at -6 a week ago. On Wednesday, the Hogs inched up to -6.5, where the number sits now.
Point-spread ticket count is 3/1-plus and money 2.5/1 on host Arkansas.
UPDATE 2 P.M. ET MONDAY: Cincinnati is coming off a landmark season, turning a 13-0 SU record (8-5 ATS) into a berth in the College Football Playoff semifinals. But the joyride ended there against Alabama, as the Bearcats lost 27-6 catching 12.5 points.
Arkansas went 9-4 SU/8-4-1 ATS last year. The Razorbacks wrapped things up with a 24-10 Outback Bowl victory laying 3.5 points against Penn State.
TwinSpires dropped Arkansas to -5.5 in the past few days. The Razorbacks are seeing 64% of spread tickets, but spread money is much more two-way, with a lean toward Arkansas at 53%.
"Sharp play on Cincy +6.5," Lucas said.
The total dipped to 53 in early August and is now down to 52. The Under is netting 56% of bets/51% of cash.
Opening line: Utah -1.5; Over/Under 52.5
Time: 7 p.m. ET Saturday (ESPN)
UPDATE 5 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Utah is now a 2-point favorite at WynnBet, after opening -1.5 and spending much of the past couple months at -2.5. The line ticked back to -2 Friday night.
The Utes are taking 76% of spread tickets, but just 54% of spread cash. WynnBet said much like the Notre Dame-Ohio State game, the need is on an outright win on underdog Florida. However, it's not a big decision.
The total dipped from 53 to 51, but has since rebounded to 52.5. Still, 72% of tickets/70% of dollars are on the Under.
UPDATE 3 P.M. ET FRIDAY: In mid-April, Caesars Sports opened Florida as a slim 1-point home favorite. By late May, the line jumped the fence to Utah -1, and it then stretched to Utes -2.5 by mid-July. Over the past week, Utah toggled between -2.5 and -3, and the Utes are currently -3.
Point-spread ticket count is almost 2/1 and money beyond 2.5/1 on the Utes for a Saturday night game at The Swamp.
"Sharps and the betting public are all on Utah. They really like this team," Caesars Sports lead college football trader Joey Feazel said. "Utah has done a lot of preparation for this game's environment. When they were practicing, they were jacking the heat up and pumping up the noise, because The Swamp is a tough place to play.
"There are two great quarterbacks in this game, with [Utah's] Cam Rising and [Florida's] Anthony Richardson, and two pretty good defenses, too. Utah was one of the best teams down the stretch last season, and this game is a big opportunity for [the Utes], given their high expectations."
UPDATE 2 P.M. ET MONDAY: In the offseason, Utah has gotten some chatter in the College Football Playoff odds conversation. The Utes went 9-3 SU in the 2021 regular season, then trashed Oregon in the Pac-12 title game. Utah then held a 14-point halftime lead against Ohio State in the Rose Bowl, but ultimately lost a shootout 48-45 as a 4-point pup. So the Utes finished 10-4 SU/7-7 ATS.
Florida is coming off a 6-6 SU regular season in which it was one of the worst spread-covering teams in the nation, going 3-9 ATS. That frustration continued in the Gasparilla Bowl, where the Gators lost 29-17 as 7-point faves against Central Florida. Coach Dan Mullen was fired with one game left in the regular season, and in December, Florida hired Billy Napier as the new coach.
In late July, Utah rose to -2.5 in TwinSpires' College Football Week 1 odds market, and the line remains -2.5. The Utes are landing 60% of tickets/59% of spread dollars.
"The public is siding with the small road chalk. We'll need Florida in this one," Lucas said.
The total peaked at 53 in mid-July, then tailed off to a 50.5 low point. It's now at 51.5, with 54% of tickets on the Over/58% of money on the Under.
Opening line: LSU -2.5; Over/Under 51.5
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET Sunday (ABC)
UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Sixty minutes before kickoff, BetMGM has LSU at -4. This matchup opened Tigers -2.5 back in June, then spent late July and all of August at -3. On Saturday, the line moved to LSU -3.5, then it advanced to -4 this afternoon. The juice at -4 briefly went to -115 in the past half hour or so, but it's now -4 flat.
"A lot of tickets on the game, almost 5/1 on LSU. Money is 4/1 on LSU," BetMGM Nevada's Scott Shelton said of mobile and retail betting at the sportsbook's Las Vegas properties. "Sharp play on LSU -3."
Nationally, BetMGM's John Ewing noted similar lopsided action, with tickets and money running 4/1 on the Tigers.
The total dipped a point from 51.5 to 50.5, but tickets and money are in the 2/1 range on the Over, both in Vegas and nationally for BetMGM.
"Sharp guys on Under 51.5," Shelton said. "We're gonna need 'dog and Under, our usual."
UPDATE 1:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: A few hours ahead of kickoff, LSU is a 4-point favorite in DraftKings' college football Week 1 odds market. That's where this game opened way back in mid-May, though it quickly adjusted to LSU -2.5. The number then stabilized at Tigers -3 for much of the summer.
On Saturday, LSU climbed to -3.5 and spent time there at various prices before popping up to -4 late this morning. It's all Tigers on the spread, with ticket count running 5/1 and money 4/1.
The total opened at 52 and slowly made its way down to 49.5 by Friday. It briefly got back to 52 in the wee hours today, but the number has since dipped down to 50.5. Ticket count is 3/1 and money just above 3/2 on the Over.
UPDATE 3 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Caesars Sports opened Brian Kelly's LSU outfit as a 4-point fave for this Sunday night season opener at Death Valley. The Tigers dipped as low as -2.5 in late May, but the line has been a pretty stable -3 all summer.
That said, early action is all LSU, with ticket count approaching 9/1 and money beyond 7/1.
UPDATE 2 P.M. ET MONDAY: Neither team is ranked, so being totally honest here: The only reason this matchup is in this report is because it's a standalone national TV game on Sunday night.
For LSU, it's the beginning of the Brian Kelly era, after the coach left Notre Dame to take the Tigers post. LSU barely scratched out a bowl bid last year, going 6-6 SU/5-6-1 ATS in the regular season. The Tigers then got rolled in the Texas Bowl by Kansas State, losing 42-20 as 9.5-point underdogs.
Florida State couldn't even get bowl-eligible in 2021, finishing 5-7 SU/6-6 ATS.
Sunday night's clash is another quasi-neutral-site game, at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.
LSU opened -2.5 at TwinSpires and in early June went to -3.5, where the number remains now.
"It's a mix of public and sharp play on LSU," Lucas said.
The total has been fairly stable at 51.5, with two-way action leaning toward the Over, at 55% of bets/52% of cash.