Friday's Tip Sheet
September 23, 2015
By Brian Edwards
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**Boise State at Virginia**
-- As of early Wednesday, most betting shops had Boise State (2-1 straight up, 1-2 against the spread) installed as a 2.5-point favorite. The total was 49.5 points.
-- Bryan Harsin's club will make the long venture to Charlottesville to take on Virginia without its starting quarterback. Ryan Finley sustained a broken bone in his right ankle in last Friday's 52-0 win over Idaho State as a 27.5-point home favorite. Finley, who will miss the next eight weeks, had completed 46-of-70 passes (65.7%) for 485 yards with a 1/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Harsin played two QBs after Finley was injured and plans to employ a two-QB system again Friday.
-- Brett Rypien, a true freshman who left high school early for spring practice last year, connected on 8-of-9 passes for 126 yards in his collegiate debut. He is the nephew of Mark Rypien, the former NFL QB who had his best days with the Washington Redskins. Also, Tommy Stuart will play at UVA. He has completed 9-of-13 passes for 69 yards and one TD without an interception.
-- BSU is led in rushing by sophomore Jeremy McNichols, who has 204 yards and seven TDs on 54 carries. Senior WR Shane Williams-Rhodes has a team-best 18 receptions for 173 yards.
-- Finley isn't the only injury BSU is coping with going into Week 4. Junior DE Gabe Perez went down with a season-ending shoulder injury last week. Perez finished 2014 with 29 tackles and 3.5 sacks.
-- BSU owns a 3-3 spread record in six games as a road favorite on Harsin's watch. Going back to 2005, the Broncos are 30-19 ATS as road 'chalk.'
-- Virginia (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) has covered the number in five consecutive games as a home underdog, including its Week 2 loss to Notre Dame by a 34-27 count as a 13.5-point puppy. However, the Cavaliers are just 8-8-1 ATS in 17 games as home 'dogs during Mike London's six-year tenure.
-- After nearly knocking off Notre Dame in Week 2, Virginia failed to cover the spread in a 35-29 win over William & Mary as a 22-point home favorite this past Saturday. Matt Johns completed 17-of-23 passes for 263 yards and three TDs, but he was intercepted twice. Junior RB Taquan Mizzell produced 202 all-purpose yards on 12 'touches' (five carries, five catches and two KO returns), including an 80-yard TD reception.
-- Johns has connected on 66.7 percent of his passes for 790 yards with a 6/3 TD-INT ratio. Mizzell has rushed for a team-high 155 yards and also has 17 catches for 233 yards and a pair of TDs. Canaan Severin is Johns's favorite target, hauling in 19 receptions for 264 yards and one TD.
-- The 'over' is 2-1 overall for UVA this year, 2-0 in its home outings. The Cavs have seen their games average a combined score of 58.3 points per game.
-- The 'under' is 2-1 overall for BSU, but the 'over' cashed in its lone road assignment.
-- This is the first meeting between these schools. UVA will make a return trip to face the Broncos on the smurf turf in 2017.
-- Boise State has made the trip into the Eastern time zone six times in the last five years, producing a 4-2 SU record and a 5-1 ATS mark. The Broncos beat a pair of ranked foes in Va. Tech (No. 10 in D.C.) and Georgia (No. 19 at Ga. Dome in the ATL), in addition to covering double-digit numbers at Toledo and UConn. They lost but covered at Michigan State in the 2012 season opener. In last year's lid-lifter, they lost 35-13 to Ole Miss at the Ga. Dome in a game they trailed just 7-6 going into the four quarter.
-- Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
**Stanford at Oregon State **
-- As of early Wednesday, most spots had Stanford (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) favored by 15.5. With the uncertain status of QB Kevin Hogan, who is considered 'questionable' (leg) and will likely be a game-time decision, there was no total yet.
-- During David Shaw's five-year tenure, Stanford owns an 11-8 spread record in 19 games as a road favorite.
-- After pulling a no-show in a 16-6 season-opening loss at Northwestern, Stanford has responded with back-to-back wins vs. UCF (31-7) and at Southern Cal (41-31). The Cardinal was a double-digit underdog last week for only the third time on Shaw's watch. Like the two previous such spots (at top-ranked Oregon as a 20.5-point 'dog in 2012 and vs. Oregon as a 10.5-point puppy in '13), Shaw's team won outright as a 10-point underdog, improving to 6-1-1 ATS as a 'dog since 2011.
-- Hogan was the catalyst at The Coliseum last week, completing 18-of-23 passes for 279 yards and two TDs without an interception. Christian McCaffrey carried the load on the ground, rushing 26 times for 115 yards. Remound Wright did the heavy lifting in the red zone, rushing for 41 yards and three scores on 11 carries.
-- Oregon State (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) captured a 35-21 win over San Jose State as a six-point home favorite last weekend. The 56 combined points jumped 'over' the 50-point total. The Beavers trailed 21-14 at intermission, but they outscored the Spartans 21-0 in the third quarter. Seth Collins, the true freshman signal caller, ran 16 times for 114 yards and two TDs. He also connected on 13-of-25 throws for 135 yards with one TD and an interception. Storm Woods rushed for 151 yards and one TD on 17 carries.
-- Collins has completed 54.2 percent of his passes for 306 yards with an excellent 4/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has rushed for a team-high 294 yards and two TDs on 44 totes, averaging 6.7 yards per carry. Woods has rushed 35 times for 227 yards and one TD, averaging 6.5 YPC.
-- Oregon State opened the season with a 26-7 non-covering home win over Weber State In Week 2, the Beavers lost 35-7 at Michigan.
-- Stanford has won five in a row both SU and ATS over Oregon State , including a 38-14 triumph as a 12-point home 'chalk' last season. Hogan threw for 277 yards and two TDs, but he was also intercepted twice.
-- The 'under' is 2-1 overall for OSU, 1-1 in its home games. The 'under' is also 2-1 for Stanford, 1-0 its lone road outing.
-- Fox Sports 1 will have the telecast at 10:00 p.m. Eastern.
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