Betting Recap – Week 12

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

7 minute read

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Ball State (+9.5, ML +300) vs. Western Michigan, 42-41 (OT)
Kansas State (+6.5, ML +210) vs. Texas Tech, 21-6
Miami-Ohio (+6, ML +200) vs. Northern Illinois, 13-7
Bowling Green (+6, ML +200) at Akron, 21-6
Oklahoma State (+6, ML +185) vs. West Virginia, 45-41

The largest favorites to cover
Florida (-41.5) vs. Idaho, 63-10
Old Dominion (-31) vs. VMI, 77-14
South Carolina (-31) vs. Chattanooga, 49-9
Auburn (-29.5) vs. Liberty, 53-0
BYU (-26) vs. New Mexico State, 45-10

Top 25 Notes

-- Ohio State was in serious trouble and they couldn't stop the rushing attack of Maryland. It appeared Saturday was going to start off with a giant upset, but the Buckeyes held on by a thread to edge the Terrapins 52-51 in overtime to survive and advance. Perhaps they were looking forward to their huge rivalry game against Michigan next Saturday. The Wolverines might have been looking past Indiana, too, as they won 31-20 despite entering the day as a four-touchdown favorite.

-- Alabama  stepped out of the SEC and faced a cupcake, like has become customary in that league in the penultimate weekend of the regular season before rivalry week. FCS The Citadel played the No. 1 team in the land tougher than LSU held Mississippi State in the previous two weeks, as the Crimson Tide blanked those two SEC foes. The Bulldogs entered 4-5 SU, but they ended up tied at halftime by a 10-10 score before the Crimson Tide pulled away in the third quarter. The Citadel received a big pay day, but they were the ones making the Tide work hard. 

-- Utah State held on by the skin of their teeth, 29-24, against Colorado State. The Rams appeared to have a Hail Mary touchdown, but...see bad beats below.

-- Notre Dame kept their foot on the gas and never let Syracuse even think they had a chance at the upset, as the Irish are hurtling toward their first appearance in the four-team national playoff. The Fighting Irish easily hit on the 10-point number, covering by the end of the first quarter and never looking back. The Irish improved to 3-0-1 ATS over the past four, and 6-1-1 ATS across the past eight.

Big Five Conference Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)

-- Florida State kept their bowl eligibility alive with a 22-21 nailbiter win over Boston College. It was a surprising result for the Seminoles, who were short 'dogs at home. QB Anthony Brown and RB A.J. Dillon were question marks for the Eagles, but they were able to play so B.C. had their best players on the field. ... N.C. State added to the woes of Louisville, roughing up the Cardinals 52-10. Louisville canned Bobby Petrino this past week, but the team didn't seem to respond with any energy. ... Miami-Florida picked up a 38-14 win on the road against Virginia Tech on the road. The total was also a bad beat (see below).

-- Iowa took care of business on the road against Illinois by a 63-0 victory. They really pulled away in the second quarter with 28 points to take a 35-0 lead into the half, but they kept their foot on the gas and helped total bettors to an 'over' (60) all by themselves. ... Wisconsin-Purdue was a crazy game, totaling 91 points in a 3OT battle. The Boilermakers (-3.5) were covering for a good chunk of the game, but the Badgers tied it up with 2:51 to go to force OT. Purdue took a 34-27 lead in the first OT, Wisconsin tied. Purdue took a 41-34 lead in 2OT, Wisconsin tied. Purdue then elected to kick the field goal in 3OT, taking a 44-41 lead, but they allowed the 17-yard TD run to Jonathan Taylor to lose a heartbreaker.

-- West Virginia- Oklahoma State (74) turned into a barn burner. There were a total of 55 points on the board heading into the fourth quarter, so it wasn't necessarily a slam dunk 'over'. However, the teams combined for 31 points in the final quarter to end up with 86 points on the board. ... Texas Tech limped into Manhattan with a backup QB and they never got on track, losing 21-6 to Kansas State. The Wildcats entered as a 6 1/2-point underdog, but they picked up the cover, moving to 5-2 ATS over the past seven. The 'under' is also a perfect 3-0 in the past three for the Wildcats, and 8-3 in 11 games overall.

-- USC hit rock-bottom in their loss to rival UCLA, falling 34-27. Now, if the Trojans want to avoid being home for the holidays they need to spring a monumental upset over Notre Dame if they want to go bowling. ... Colorado started 5-0 SU, but now they're 5-6 following a 30-7 loss against Utah. The Utes are on their way to the Pac-12 Championship Game for the first time in school history. ... Washington State laid the wood to Arizona, as QB Gardner Minshew tossed seven TDs. He had 311 yards and five TDs - at half - as the Cougars made a statement with a 55-14 lead at the break. 'Over' (63.5) bettors loved it, as they might have been the easiest betting win ever. The Cougs are now 9-2 ATS on the season.

-- Florida buried FCS Idaho by a 63-10 score, covering the 'over' (59) all by themselves. ... Mississippi State also covered the 'over' (48.5) on their own, shelleacking Arkansas by a 52-6 score. 

Bad Beats

-- Florida Atlantic appears on bad beats pretty frequently. They were playing from behind for a good chunk of Thursday's game at North Texas, catching four points from the Mean Green. The Owls took the lead in the third quarter, 24-20, but slipped behind 34-24 just six minutes lately. With 4:06 to go, the Mean Green appeared to have secured the cover, going up 41-31. However, the Owls hit a 55-yard TD pass with 3:38 to go in regulation, closing the game to 41-38 for the backdoor cover.

-- The Mountain West featured some strange endings. Colorado State appeared to have hit a Hail Mary with no time left to stun Utah State outright as 29 1/2-point underdogs. It's doubtful very many people took the Rams on the moneyline, but...they appeared to have a game-winning TD with no time on the clock. However, the receiver who caught the ball in the end zone was flagged for illegal touching, stepping out of bounds before coming back into the field of play. Ouch.

-- Also in the MWC, Wyoming (-2 1/2) trailed Air Force 27-14 with 8:44 to go in the fourth quarter. However, Wyoming scored a rushing TD to slice the lead to 27-21, and then they had a TD pass with 1:09 to go, making it 28-27. It appeared as if it would end right there in the snow and ice, with a Cowboys win, Falcons cover. However, after the onside kick, the Cowboys ripped off a 27-yard run for the 35-27 lead.

-- If you had Maryland on the moneyline. Ouch.

-- If you had the 'under' in Colgate-Army (37), it was a rough finish. If you have Colgate +11, it was a rough finish. The Black Knights punched in a touchdown with 2:06 to go, flipping the cover to Army and the total to 'over' in the process.

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