Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:57 AM
Total Moves - Week 5
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College Football Week 5 Total Moves
The oddsmakers and I have been passing that broomstick back and forth for the past three weeks, as after Week 3's plays saw me on the wrong side of the broom, last week's plays gave me the upper hand once again. That made it two of the past three weeks that I've been on the right side of these plays sweeping the board, and hopefully this week's plays don't mirror Week 3's results.
Michigan State and Northwestern got so much 'under' love all the way until kickoff that the line actually dropped as low as 35 points. So 38 was far from the best number, but thanks to both teams finding the end zone in the final frame, the two teams managed to finish with 41 points and eclipse every number.
UCF and Pitt managed to prove that that early money on the high side of the 'over' was the correct side all along, as even before Pitt scored that final TD to win in basically walk-off fashion, the two teams had combined for 62 points already. The scoring was that high despite the two teams going a combined 9-for-33 on 3rd downs.
It's on to Week 5's plays though, as just like every week in college football, there have been plenty of total moves already.
YTD: 5-3 ATS
Week 5 Total move to disagree with:
USC/Washington from 59.5 to 61
Lots of 'over' love already this week for this Pac-12 tilt, as betting percentage numbers up at VegasInsider.com currently show about 75%+ of the action already on the high side. Given the high profile of both schools and the emphasis on winning with offensive football, the 'over' that the majority is backing here does have a case.
However, a good portion of that case for the 'over' is predicated on many believing Washington QB Jacob Eason is believed to be better then he probably is. Yes, He's put up great numbers through four games so far this season (10/2 TD/INT ratio), and was a highly sought after guy coming out of high school. He's got all the physical attributes for sure, and his dissection of BYU last week – a common opponent already between the two teams – was respectable. However, he's also 0-1 SU in Pac-12 play this year as a very good Cal defense stifled and confused him at nearly every turn. California might have the best defense in the conference, but with the athletes USC always recruits on that side of the ball, it's like the Trojans are chopped liver.
Furthermore, on the other side of the coin you've got a 3rd string QB in Matt Fink making his first collegiate road start in hostile, rival territory. That situation in itself is not that conducive to points, and with Washington not allowing more than 20 points against in any one of their four games so far, I've got a tough time seeing just where all these points are going to come from.
Even if you were to pencil in 20 points for the Trojans, that means you'd need 40+ from Washington to clear this current number. Sure, the Huskies have been able to do that in all three of their wins this year, but again, that came against lesser competition for the most part, and to assume they'll be able to do that against USC is severely disrespecting what the Trojans bring on defense. USC hasn't allowed more than 27 points through four quarters of play in any of their four games this year, and with a 2-6 O/U run going after their last eight victories, even getting to 55 points feels like a stretch.
Week 5 Total move to to agree with:
Arkansas/Texas A&M from 57.5 to 59.5
Neutral site game for these two Big 12 rivals each coming off a disappointing defeat. For Texas A&M, they failed to defend their home turf against a very good Auburn team in a 28-20 loss, as they were thoroughly dominated on the ground in that game. For the Razorbacks, they were unable to defend their home turf either, but an outright loss to San Jose State as -20 home favorites reeks of disappointment on all levels.
This is a big step up in class for Arkansas and given how they performed so poorly, and while that may bring it's challenges on offense, you give up 31 points to San Jose State, allowing 40+ to Texas A&M is definitely in the cards. After all, after facing defenses like Clemson and Auburn in two of the past three weeks, this Aggies attack may feel like they are up against a high school unit when Arkansas's defense is on the field.
It does take two teams to pull their weight though to cash an 'over' ticket, and as I touched on the other day in this piece, I do like Arkansas's chances of at least doing enough to put up 20 points themselves. After all, it's hard not for the Aggies to be a little deflated after already suffering two defeats, and with a huge game against Alabama on deck, it's also hard for them not to be peeking ahead to that game. The Razorbacks should be in full blown redemption mode after losing as huge favorites at home a week ago, and with nobody giving them a shot this week, and in a favorable situational spot at least in terms of the potential negatives for the Aggies here, 20+ points from Arkansas isn't much to ask.
Texas A&M are on a 8-2 O/U run after failing to cover a spread as it is, and with them being no strangers to putting on an offensive show for neutral site fans – the Aggies are on a 5-1 O/U run in their last six on a neutral field – something like 45-24 could easily be where this game ends up.
Other Notable Moves
Buffalo-Miami (Ohio).: 49.5 to 47
Minnesota-Purdue: 56.5 to 53.5
Northern Illinois-Vanderbilt: 54.5 to 51.5
UTEP-Southern Miss: 52.5 to 49.5
Fresno State-New Mexico State: 60 to 63
Kentucky-South Carolina: 50.5 to 53
(Odds Subject to Change)