ACC Report – Week 8

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

21 minute read

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The Atlantic Coast Conference will have 14 of 15 schools in action for Week 8 for a total of seven conference games, while one team (Duke) rests.

All games are scheduled for Saturday, Oct. 24, 2020.

Conference

• Syracuse at Clemson
• N.C. State at North Carolina
• Florida State at Louisville
• Notre Dame at Pittsburgh
• Virginia Tech at Wake Forest
• Georgia Tech at Boston College
• Virginia at Miami-Florida

Not In Action

• Duke

Syracuse at Clemson (ACC, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Betting Odds: Clemson -45.5, O/U 61.5

• Last Week: Syracuse L 21-38 vs. Liberty (+4, 53)
• Last Week: Clemson W 73-7 at Georgia Tech (-27, 64.5)

The Orange have been a thorn in the side of the Tigers in the past, but the defending conference champs and national runners-up are expected to polish off the visitors in a big way in Death Valley on Saturday. Clemson roughed up Georgia Tech by a 73-7 score last week in Atlanta, now they set their sights on the 1-4 SU/2-3 ATS Tigers, a team which fell 38-21 at home against Liberty in a non-conference tilt. Syracuse has allowed 38.0 PPG across the past two games vs. Liberty and Duke. It's hard to imagine what the Tigers are going to be able to do to them. The Orange enter this one 4-9 ATS across the past 13 games overall, and they're 2-5 ATS in the previous seven on the road.

After opening the season 0-3 ATS, the Tigers have covered the spread in each of their past two outings. They have outscored Miami and Georgia Tech by a 115-24 count. Clemson is averaging 530.6 total yards per game to rank eighth in the nation, they're 10th in passing yards with 348.0 per game and they're third in the nation with 48.4 PPG. Defensively they're just as impressive, allowing just 264.6 total yards per game to rank third in the country. They're also ninth against the pass (168.2 yards), 11th against the run (96.4 yards) and fifth in the country with just 12.0 PPG. Clemson has managed a 19-6-1 ATS mark across their past 26 ACC battles, and they're 21-9 ATS in the past 30 overall, including 20-8 ATS in the previous 28 as a favorite.

N.C. State at North Carolina (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Betting Odds: North Carolina -16.5, O/U 61

• Last Week: N.C. State W 31-20 vs. Duke (-3.5, 59.5)
• Last Week: North Carolina L 28-31 at Florida State (-13.5, 65.5)

The Wolfpack rushed past Blue Devils last weekend by a 31-20 score, winning and covering for the third consecutive game. As a result, they have found their way into the Top 25 rankings. Last week's win over Duke was also the first time they were favored, covering in their first game as a favorite. They're back to being an underdog this weekend, but the good news is that they're 2-0 SU/ATS as an underdog of seven or more points, including their 30-29 win at Pittsburgh on Oct. 3 as a two-touchdown 'dog. The under cashed last week for the first time in five games after the over connected in each of the first four.

The Tar Heels shot all the way up to No. 5/6 in the rankings last week, but they fell behind Florida State on the road, trailing 31-7 at halftime, and they were unable to dig themselves completely out of the hole. The Heels made a furious comeback, outscoring the 'Noles 21-0 in the final 30 minutes, but the Heels still ended up flying back to the Triangle with a three-point loss and a tumbling down the rankings. Now, they'll have to contend with their heated rivals, the Wolfpack. Since 2007, the Wolfpack have registered wins in nine of the past 13 games, although UNC won 41-10 at Carter-Finley Stadium on Nov. 30, 2019 in the most recent meeting. The Heels have covered four of the past five in this series, although the underdog is 12-5 ATS in the previous 17 meetings, with the road team 6-1 ATS in the past seven. The under has also hit in five of the past seven in the series.

Florida State at Louisville (ESPN3, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Betting Odds: Louisville -5, O/U 61

• Last Week: Florida State W 31-28 vs. North Carolina (+13.5, 65.5)
• Last Week: Louisville L 7-12 at Notre Dame (+15, 62.5)

The Seminoles and Cardinals hook up in Kentucky, and a loss in this one is likely the death knell, especially for Louisville. The 'Noles might have saved their season with a 31-28 win over North Carolina last week, proving that they can beat anyone nationally. Louisville actually hung with Notre Dame, the third-ranked team in the land, falling in a defensive battle in the shadows of Touchdown Jesus, 12-7. After an 0-3 ATS start, FSU has covered back-to-back games, and the over is 3-1 in the past four for the Seminoles. For Louisville, they're on a four-game losing skid since a 35-21 win over Western Kentucky to open the season. Overall they're 2-2-1 ATS, including 1-1 ATS at home. The 'over' is a perfect 2-0 for the Cardinals at home.

This game opened at 6.5, but the money has been on FSU after their upset win. Trend bettors also like the Seminoles because they're 8-0 ATS in the past eight against losing teams. On the other hand, the Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in the past five home games, and 5-2 ATS in the past seven as a favorite, although they're just 5-12-1 ATS in the past 18 inside the conference. The home team has hit in four of the past five in this series. Florida State won and covered last season as seven-point favorites, 35-24, in Tallahassee on Sept. 21, 2019.

Notre Dame at Pittsburgh (ABC, 3:30 p.m.)

Betting Odds: Notre Dame -10.5, O/U 43.5

• Last Week: Notre Dame W 12-7 vs. Louisville (-15, 62.5)
• Last Week: Pittsburgh L 19-31 at Miami-Florida (+11.5, 46.5)

The Irish and Panthers hook up for the first time since Oct. 13, 2018, a 19-14 victory by the Irish in South Bend. They didn't come close to covering as three-touchdown favorites that afternoon. The Irish didn't come close to covering last week, either, struggling on the offensive end, losing 12-7 as 15-point favorites. In fact, Notre Dame has covered just once in four games, a 52-0 non-conference shutout against South Florida. They're 3-0 SU/0-3 ATS in three games against conference opponents. The key to Notre Dame's success so far has been their run game, as they are averaging 261.0 yards per game on the ground to rank seventh in the nation. On the flip side, the Irish defense has been lights out. They're 11th in the country in total yards allowed (300.8), 19th in both passing yards (193.3) and rushing yards (107.5) allowed, while ranking fourth in points allowed (11.5).

The Panthers fell by a 31-19 score in Miami last week, narrowly missing a cover as 11.5-point 'dogs. After covering in a 55-0 whitewashing of FCS Austin Peay in the opener, the Panthers are 2-3 SU/0-4-1 ATS in their five games against FBS opponents. The 'over' has connected in each of the past three games , as the Pitt defense has fallen apart, yielding 30.7 PPG during the span. 

While Pitt has struggled lately, this is a rivalry game. The Irish are just 1-4-1 ATS in the previous six meetings, with the underdog going 9-1-1 ATS in the past 11 meetings.

Virginia Tech at Wake Forest (ESPN3, 3:30 p.m.)

Betting Odds: Virginia Tech -10, O/U 68

• Last Week: Virginia Tech W 40-14 vs. Boston College (-13, 62)
• Last Week: Wake Forest W 40-23 vs. Virginia (-2.5, 57)

The Hokies righted the ship a bit last week, at least defensively, allowing just 14 points in their blowout win over Boston College. It was their first cover since Sept. 26, the opener win against N.C. State. The Hokies had allowd 87 points in their previous two games, both on the road, but they're actually quite a bit better at home. Virginia Tech is 2-0 SU/ATS in two games at home against B.C. and N.C. State, outscoring the opponent 42.5 to 19.0 PPG. It's a different story on the road, as the Hokies have been outscored 41.5 to 43.5 PPG in two games away from Blacksburg, going 1-1 SU/0-2 ATS.

The Demon Deacons played their best game of the season last week in a 40-23 win over Virginia, easily covering a 2.5-point number at Truist Field. Wake has rolled up 106 total points in the past two games while yielding just 37 to FCS Campbell and UVA. They have hit the 40-point mark in three in a row, so it's no surprise the 'over' has connected in each game, too. In fact, the only game they were truly outclassed was the opener at home against Clemson, falling 37-13, and they way things have gone for the Tigers lately, that effort actually looks pretty damn good. Wake's defense has been opportunistic, racking up six takeaways while turning it over just once.

Georgia Tech at Boston College (ACC, 4:00 p.m.)

Betting Odds: Boston College -3, O/U 55

• Last Week: Georgia Tech L 7-73 vs. Clemson (+27, 64.5)
• Last Week: Boston College L 14-40 at Virginia Tech (+13, 62)

The Yellow Jackets are licking their wounds after a 66-point beatdown at home from Clemson. The Yellow Jackets have been a Jekyll and Hyde team all season, as you never know who is going to show up. They shocked Florida State in the opener, 16-13, then were roughed up by UCF at home, 49-21. They hit the road as 7.5-point underdogs and lost outright to a poor Syracuse team, 37-20, before returning home and topping Louisville 46-27, thanks to a 20-0 fourth quarter run. They were unable to carry over the momentum, obviously, as they were crushed by the Tigers. One thing which has been consistent for Georgia Tech - the over. That's four in a row for Georgia Tech.

Boston College entered last week's game at Virginia Tech with a 3-1 SU/ATS record, but they were hammered 40-14 by the Hokies. While the score looks pretty bad, they were actually in it until the fourth quarter before the home side pulled away. The Eagles are 2-1 SU/ATS in three home games, including covers in each of their two home conference tilts against North Carolina and Pitt. Unlike Georgia Tech, it's all about the under for the Eagles. The under has cashed in four of five games for the Eagles, as they're scoring just 23.4 PPG to rank 60th in the country, and they're allowing a respectable 24.6 PPG to rank 26th in points yielded. The trend for B.C. might continue here, as the under is 4-0 in the previous four meetings in this series.

Virginia at Miami-Florida (ACC, 8:00 p.m.)

Betting Odds: Miami-Florida -11.5, O/U 58

• Last Week: Virginia L 23-40 at Wake Forest (-2.5, 57)
• Last Game: Miami-Florida W 31-19 vs. Pittsburgh (-11.5, 46.5)

In the evening game, the Cavaliers travel to battle the Hurricanes, and both sides are looking for a bounce back. Virginia was roughed up by Wake Forest in the Triad last week, and they're on a three-game slide since their opening game win over Duke on Sept. 26. Not only have the Hoos lost three in a row, but they have been dumped by 18, 17 and 17 in the three-game losing streak. Like Georgia Tech above, one thing has been consistent about UVA - overs. They have hit the over in each of their four games so far, and they're the only team in the Atlantic Coast Conference yet to see an under result in 2020. Vrginia is averaging a respectable 26.3 PPG, and they're coughing up 34.8 PPG, ranking 62nd in the country.

Miami earned a narrow cover against Pitt last week, winning 31-19, but they're still reeling from a blowout loss at Clemson two weeks ago. That one might sting for a while, because it was a measuring stick game, and they didn't come close to measuring up against the Tigers. Even a resounding win over Virginia isn't likely to take the sour taste out of their mouths, but it would help. The Canes are 3-0 SU/ATS in three games at home, with the Over cashing in each of the past two. Miami has been very balanced on offense, ranking 42nd with 228.0 passing yards per game, and they're 33rd in rushing yards per game with 179.0. They're also 23rd overall with 35.6 PPG. Defensively, they're also fairly balanced, but nothing terribly special. They are 37th in total yards allowed (396.2), 46th in passing yards (252.2), 32nd in rushing yards (144.0) and 23rd in points allowed (23.8 PPG). Miami won an uninspiring 17-9 game against UVA on Oct. 11, 2019 in a Friday night affair at Hard Rock Stadium.

In this series, UVA is 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings, with UVA going 4-1 ATS in their past five trips to Miami. The underdog is 13-3 ATS in the past 16 meetings, too, with the under hitting in five of the past six. Will we get another low-scoring affair in South Florida under the lights?

ACC Betting Results - 2020

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