SEC Betting Notebook – Week 10

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

24 minute read

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There are four SEC games in Week 10, with four teams enjoying open dates.

Alabama goes into its bye week undefeated and listed as the -400 favorite to win the SEC at most shops.

Georgia and Florida have +300 and +400 odds, respectively, at most spots. After Texas A&M's 20/1 odds, there are only longshots left on the board with Auburn (130/1) owning the shortest of those monster numbers (see below).

Let’s get to this four-pack of Saturday showdowns…

Week 10 SEC Schedule

Florida vs. Georgia
Vanderbilt at Mississippi State
Texas A&M at South Carolina
Tennessee at Arkansas

How to Handicap SEC Week 10

Florida vs. Georgia

Odds: Georgia -3.5, Total 52.5
TV-Time: CBS, 3:30 p.m. ET
Venue: TIAA Bank Field
Location: Jacksonville, Florida

-- Georgia has won three consecutive games in this rivalry and is seeking its first four-game winning streak over Florida since the 1980s. As of Friday afternoon, most books had Georgia (4-1 straight up, 2-3 against the spread) installed as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 52.5. Circa actually opened the Bulldogs as six-point favorites before quickly adjusting to -5. By mid-to-late Monday afternoon, there weren’t any fives available with most spots moving UGA to -4 or -3.5. The number seemed to settle at -3 by Wednesday night, but it ticked back up to 3.5 on Thursday. There’s been minimal movement on the total all week. The Gators are around +135 to +145 on the money line.

-- Since the start of Dan Mullen’s tenure at UF, his team has compiled a 4-1-2 spread record with four outright wins in seven games as an underdog. One of the pushes for Florida was vs. UGA last year in a 24-17 loss as a seven-point underdog, and the lone non-cover came in 2018 when the Bulldogs roared past the Gators, who had briefly led 14-13 midway through the third quarter, to a 36-17 win.

-- Kirby Smart’s team failed to cover the spread in last week’s 14-3 win at Kentucky as a 17-point road favorite. Stetson Bennett was picked off twice by the Wildcats, bringing his total of interceptions to five in the last two games. It was a bittersweet victory for UGA, with the team leaving Lexington licking its wounds with injuries galore. Then things got worse upon arriving back in Athens early Saturday evening. Later that night, senior safety Richard LeCounte, a first-team All-SEC selection in 2019 who was well on his way to achieving that honor again this season, was involved in a multi-vehicle auto accident while driving either a motorcycle or some sort of dirt bike. Whatever the case, he sustained a concussion and a shoulder injury that’ll have him ‘out’ vs. UF on Saturday and will most likely cause him to miss multiple games.

-- Georgia’s injury list goes far beyond what happened to LeCounte, though. WR George Pickens, who led UGA in all receiving categories as a true freshman in 2019 (49 catches, 727 yards and eight TDs), didn’t even make the trip to Lexington due to an upper-body injury. He has reportedly been limited at practice all week and is listed as ‘questionable.’ Senior DT Julian Rochester, who has started 24 games in his collegiate career, suffered a torn ACL at UK and is out for the season. Also, junior nose tackle Jordan Davis sustained a fractured elbow against the ‘Cats. Although Smart attempted to imply that Davis might be able to play with some sort of brace or cast during a media scrum on Wednesday, that seems highly unlikely and, at best, he’d be extremely limited if he touches the field. Furthermore, LB Quay Walker, who had 23 tackles, nine QB hurries, 2.5 sacks and one tackle for loss in 2019, is ‘questionable’ along with starting safety Lewis Cine, who is dealing with a sprained ankle.

-- For the first time in at least three years, Florida (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) has the QB advantage in this showdown along the St. John’s River in Jacksonville. Senior QB Kyle Trask has been nothing short of spectacular through four games, completing 95-of-139 passes (68.3%) for 1,341 yards with a remarkable 18/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His junior TE Kyle Pitts might be the most difficult matchup for opposing defenses that any offense in the country possesses. Pitts has 22 receptions for 355 yards and six TDs, while senior WR Kadarius Toney has 22 catches for 297 yards and six TDs. Toney also has 83 rushing yards and one TD on eight attempts, and he’s eighth in the SEC in all-purpose yards with 120.0 yards per game.

-- Florida’s offense is ranked 12th in the nation in scoring with its 42.0 points-per-game average. The Gators are seventh in passing yards. The defensive numbers were UGLY in UF’s first three games. However, with the return of senior DT Kyree Campbell in last week’s 41-17 win over Missouri as a 13.5-point home ‘chalk,’ the run defense was vastly improved. After Florida’s defensive line was mostly bullied in its first three games, it shut down Missouri’s ground attack, holding Larry Rountree, a third-team All-SEC selection at RB in 2019, in check. In fact, the Tigers were limited to 40 rushing yards on 23 attempts. Until Rountree scored a TD with 3:18 remaining, the Gators had held Missouri to only three points in 56-plus minutes of play. (The Tigers got a first-half TD on a pick-six off of Trask.)

-- While Georgia is banged up, Florida might be at full strength. The Gators were without three starters in the secondary, several other reserves and veteran kicker (and All-American candidate) Evan McPherson vs. Missouri due to positive COVID tests. However, those results came back two Saturdays ago, so the expectation is that all those players will be cleared for Saturday and were probably able to return to practice on Wednesday or Thursday. On Tuesday, Florida reported no new positive COVID results for the first week since September. In fact, since the players reported to Gainesville in July, 68 players have tested positive for COVID, so it appears as if the team is past the virus.

-- Trask completed 21-of-36 throws for 345 yards and four TDs vs. Missouri last week. He also had a team-best 47 rushing yards on just six attempts. Toney found paydirt three times on two TD catches and a 16-yard TD scamper.

-- When these teams met last year, Trask connected on 21-of-33 passes for 257 yards and two TDs without an interception. Pitts had four receptions for 78 yards, but Toney was out of the game with an injured wrist.

-- UGA is ranked second in the nation in scoring defense (12.5 PPG), third in run defense and fourth in total defense.

-- The ‘over’ is 3-1 for the Gators, who have had combined scores of 86, 62, 79 and 58 points. This is UF’s lowest total of the season to date.

-- UGA is ranked second in the nation in scoring defense (12.5 PPG), third in run defense and fourth in total defense.

-- The ‘over’ is 3-1 for the Gators, who have had combined scores of 86, 62, 79 and 58 points. This is UF’s lowest total of the season to date.

-- The ‘under’ is 3-1 overall for Georgia.

Vanderbilt at Mississippi State

Odds: Miss State -19, Total 45
TV-Time: SEC, 3:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Davis-Wade Stadium
Location: Starkville, Mississippi

-- As of Friday, most books had Mississippi St. installed as a 19-point favorite with a total of 44. The Commodores were anywhere from +700 to +950 on the money line depending on what spots you were shopping for numbers.

-- Vanderbilt (0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS) posted its lone spread cover in its opener on the road, a 17-12 loss at Texas A&M as a 31-point road underdog. Since then, though, the Commodores have been outscored 136-35 at home in losses vs. LSU, South Carolina and Ole Miss. Those three teams have combined for a mediocre 6-10 overall record, yet they’ve beaten the breaks off the ‘Dores in Nashville.

-- Mississippi St. (1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS) thumped LSU 44-34 in its season opener to launch the Mike Leach Era in spectacular fashion with a convincing win as a 14.5-point underdog in Baton Rouge. However, the Bulldogs have lost four games in a row both SU and ATS since then, including a 41-0 loss at Alabama as a 30.5-point road underdog last Saturday. It was the first time in 234 career games that a Leach team had been shut out.

-- Although Mississippi St. has struggled immensely on offense in four straight setbacks vs. Arkansas (21-14), at Kentucky (24-2), vs. Texas A&M (28-14 with one TD coming from MSU’s defense) and in Tuscaloosa, the defense has been among the SEC’s best. In fact, the Bulldogs are ranked second in the SEC in both total defense and pass defense, and they’re third in the league at stopping the run.

-- Since throwing for an SEC-record 623 passing yards and five TDs vs. LSU, MSU QB K.J. Costello had an atrocious 1/8 TD-INT ratio in four games leading into the Alabama game last week. Costello had to leave the game with a concussion and is ‘out’ this week, although Leach doesn’t discuss injuries and you may see the Stanford grad transfer as ‘questionable’ on injury reports. That means true freshman QB Will Rogers will get his first career start, but he’s played quite a big in recent weeks. Rogers has completed 48-of-70 passes (68.6%) for 310 yards with one TD compared to four interceptions, including one in the end zone at ‘Bama last week.

-- MSU is 0-1 both SU and ATS as a home favorite this year, but the Bulldogs are 30-19 ATS in their past 49 such spots since 2010.

-- Vandy is 15-15 ATS in 30 games as a road underdog during Derek Mason’s tenure.

-- Vandy true freshman QB Ken Seals enjoyed the best game of his four-game career in last week’s 54-21 home loss to Ole Miss. Seals completed 31-of-40 passes for 319 yards and two TDs with one interception. Cam Johnson caught 14 balls for 97 yards, while RB Keyon Brooks had five receptions for 89 yards. Brooks also had 66 rushing yards and one TD on 23 carries.

-- Vandy RB Ja’Veon Marlow is ‘out’ and will miss his third consecutive game with an injury this week. Mason did indicate earlier in the week that Marlow will return at some point this year, but that he’s not quite ready. Marlow ran for 148 yards, which remains a team-high, on 33 carries for a 4.5 yards-per-carry average in Vandy’s first two games.

-- For the season, Seals has completed 79-of-118 throws (66.9%) for 730 yards with a 5/5 TD-INT ratio. Johnson is his favorite target with 23 catches for 224 yards and one TD.

-- Totals have been an overall wash for Vandy (2-2), but the ‘over’ has hit in back-to-back games for the Commodores.

-- The ‘under’ has cashed in four straight games for MSU since the 78 combined points in its opener at LSU flew ‘over’ the 57-point tally.

SEC Video Best Bets - Week 10

Texas A&M at South Carolina

Odds: Texas A&M -10, 59
TV-Time: ESPN, 7:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Williams-Brice Stadium
Location: Columbia, South Carolina

-- As of Friday, most books had Texas A&M (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) listed as a 10-point favorite with a total of 58.5 or 59. The Gamecocks were around +285 on the money line.

-- Jimbo Fisher’s team is 0-2 ATS in a pair of double-digit ‘chalk’ situations this year. Although Texas A&M led Arkansas 42-17 going into the fourth quarter at Kyle Field in College Station last week, the Razorbacks scored a pair of fourth-quarter TDs to post a backdoor cover in a 42-31 loss as 14-point road underdogs.

-- Kellen Mond continues to silence critics with quality QB play. The senior completed 21-of-26 passes last week for 260 yards and three TDs without an interception. Mond also had 32 rushing yards on six attempts and wasn’t sacked once. Sophomore RB Isaiah Spiller ran for 82 yards and one TD on 21 carries. Sophomore TE Jalen Wydermyer, who was a second-team All-SEC choice as a freshman last year, had six catches for 92 yards and one TD. RB Ainias Smith had six receptions for 67 yards and one TD, in addition to 31 rushing yards and one TD on just three totes.

-- Texas A&M is 3-0 ATS in three games as a road favorite on Fisher’s watch.

-- For the season, Mond has completed 64.7 percent of his passes for 1,244 yards with a 12/2 TD-INT ratio. If I had a vote and the season was over today, he would be my third-team All-SEC selection at QB behind only Alabama’s Mac Jones and Trask.

-- South Carolina (2-3 SU, 3-1-1 ATS) has had two weeks to prepare for the Aggies since getting run out of Baton Rouge by a 52-24 count as a 4.5-point road underdog. The Gamecocks missed three field goals, allowed a defensive TD on a pick-six thrown by Collin Hill and gave up an LSU kick return for another TD. Although the defense stunk up Tiger Stadium, true sophomore RB Kevin Harris continued his stellar play with 126 rushing yards and two TDs on merely 12 carries. Harris has been a beast all year, rushing for more than 100 yards in three of the Gamecocks’ past four games. He has 535 rushing yards for eight TDs with a 5.8 YPC average. Harris also has 13 catches for 99 yards and one TD.

-- Other than the pick-six, Collin Hill didn’t play that bad at LSU. He completed 12-of-22 passes for 234 yards and one TD with the one INT. For the season, Hill has completed 61.5 percent of his passes for 1,076 yards with a 5/3 TD-INT ratio. He also has four rushing TDs. Senior WR Shi Smith is his favorite target, hauling in 36 receptions for 415 yards and three TDs. TE Tanner Muse has 14 catches for 202 yards.

-- South Carolina is 3-1 ATS in four underdog spots this season. During Will Muschamp’s five-year tenure, the Gamecocks are 6-6-1 ATS in 13 games as a home underdog.

-- Since joining the SEC in 2012, Texas A&M is undefeated in six head-to-head meetings with South Carolina, including last year’s 30-6 home win as an 11-point favorite.

-- The ‘over’ is 3-2 overall for the Aggies, 1-1 in its two road assignments.

-- The ‘over’ is 4-1 for South Carolina, 1-1 in its home games. The team’s lone ‘under’ came in its 30-22 win over Auburn when the 52 combined points slithered ‘under’ the 53.5-point tally in a game that had a pair of two failed two-point conversion attempts.

Tennessee at Arkansas

Odds: Tennessee -1.5, Total 52.5
TV-Time: ESPN, 7:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Razorback Stadium
Location: Fayetteville, Arkansas

-- I’m not sure I can recall in recent memory when a head coach’s fortunes have changed so rapidly over the course of a 10-quarter stretch. In this instance, I’m speaking of third-year Tennessee head coach Jeremy Pruitt, who went to halftime in Athens on Oct. 10 with a 21-17 lead over a top-five Georgia team after his team stuffed the Bulldogs with an epic goal-line stand to end the second quarter. The Volunteers appeared to have all the momentum and potentially be on the verge of extending their winning streak to nine games with a statement victory. Well, not so much. Since then, Pruitt’s team has been outscored 109-24 in three consecutive losses both SU and ATS. In that stretch, the good will earned during an eight-game winning streak, albeit one that included zero wins over ranked teams, has not only vanished completely, but his job security is teetering from minimal to non-existent. In other words, if Tennessee loses Saturday at Arkansas, a program that went 4-23 in its 27 previous games before hiring Sam Pittman last December, Pruitt will be front and center on the proverbial boiling hot seat that coaches often frequent this time of year.

-- As of early Friday, most betting shops had Tennessee (2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS) listed as a two-point favorite with a total of 52.5. Some spots had the Razorbacks at +105 or +110 on the money line.

-- Arkansas (2-3 SU, 5-0 ATS) is the nation’s only team that’s played more than two games and remains undefeated for our purposes ATS. The Razorbacks were behind the number by double digits going to the fourth quarter trailing 42-17 in College Station last week. However, senior QB Feleipe Franks led a pair of fourth-quarter TD drives that allowed Arkansas supporters to cash tickets in backdoor fashion in a 42-31 loss as a 14-point road underdog at Texas A&M.

-- Arkansas had slim edges in both first downs (29-25) and total offense (461-442) over Texas A&M, but the Razorbacks missed a pair of field goals in the first half that would haunt them. Franks continued to play well, especially when considering how the grad transfer from Florida didn’t have any spring practice to learn a new system from offensive coordinator Kendall Briles or develop chemistry with his new teammates. Nevertheless, the Wakulla Co. HS (FL.) product hit on 23-of-31 passes for 239 yards and three TDs without an interception. He also produced a season-high 91 rushing yards on 16 attempts. Sophomore WR Treylon Brooks had seven receptions for 117 yards and two TDs, while RB Rakeem Boyd had 100 rushing yards and one TD on 18 carries.

-- Arkansas is 2-0 ATS at home this year, beating Ole Miss 33-21 in a pick ‘em affair three weeks ago. In their season opener, the Razorbacks didn’t trail for the first time until midway through the third quarter vs. Georgia, but the Bulldogs pulled away for a 37-10 win. Nevertheless, the Hogs still cashed as 28-point home puppies.

-- For the season, Franks has a 66.0 completion percentage, 1,213 passing yards and an 11/3 TD-INT ratio. He also had 156 rushing yards, while RB Trelon Smith has a team-best 251 rushing yards and a 4.1 YPC average. Boyd has 188 rushing yards, a 3.7 YPC average and two rushing scores. Burks is enjoying a solid campaign with 26 receptions for 366 yards and four TDs, while De’Vion Warren has 12 grabs for 253 yards and three TDs.

-- Tennessee us 1-1 SU and 0-1-1 ATS in two road games, a 31-27 win at South Carolina and a 44-21 loss at UGA. During Pruitt’s tenure, the Vols have been road ‘chalk’ just once in the push vs. the Gamecocks back on Sept. 26.

-- Pruitt named senior Jarrett Guarantano as his starting QB again this week, ending speculation that he would hand the keys to offense over to true freshman Harrison Bailey, a four-star recruit. Guarantano has completed 61.5 percent of his passes for 914 yards with a 6/3 TD-INT ratio. Bailey has appeared in only one game, completing 1-of-4 throws for 24 yards. Pruitt is probably wanting to redshirt him, but that means he can still play in three of the team’s five remaining contests.

-- UT senior WR Josh Palmer remains Guarantano’s favorite target. He has 19 catches for 295 yards and four TDs, while sophomore RB Eric Gray has a team-best 355 rushing yards and two TDs with a 4.5 YPC average. Ty Chandler has 275 yards on the ground with two TDs and a 4.4 YPC average.

-- Tennessee has lost 13 of 14 road games against SEC West foes since 2008.

-- The ‘under’ is 3-2 overall for UT, but the ‘over’ has hit in both of its road contests.

-- The ‘under’ is 3-2 overall for the Hogs, 2-0 in its home games.