Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:52 AM
Pac-12 Week 11 Best Bets, Odds, Predictions
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Only one of the two games went off from last week's Pac-12 card, but Washington State was never really much in question, as it appears as though they plucked the right replacement for a former Mike Leach program.
It was also a week where the concern about the wrong Oregon school getting steamed proved to be true, as the Ducks looked as good as always, with talent just continuing to churn through those doors.
Pac-12 Schedule - Week 11
Saturday, Nov. 14
- USC at Arizona (FOX, 3:30 p.m.)
- Colorado at Stanford (ESPN, 3:30 p.m.)
- Oregon at Washington State (FOX, 7:00 p.m.)
- California at Arizona State (ESPN2, 10:30 p.m.))
- Utah at UCLA (FOX, 10:30 p.m.)
- Oregon State at Washington (FS1, 11:00 p.m.)
Still a long way away from making any concrete opinions though, as the Pac-12's best case scenario is still to get two undefeateds in their Title game and that's going to be tough.
Pac-12 Odds - Week 11 (As of Thursday)
- USC (-14, 67.5) at Arizona
- Colorado at Stanford (-6.5, 54.5)
- Oregon (-10, 57.5) at Washington State
- California at Arizona State (-4, 47)
- Utah (-3.5, 59.5) at UCLA
- Oregon State at Washington (-13.5, 52.5)
USC escaped with a win in the 9:00 a.m. PT local start which may be all their luck for the year gone already, but survive and advance is the name of the game this season, and USC did enough to accomplish that.
It will be interesting to see how they and ASU respond this week after that result, that is if Arizona State even plays their game.
Hopefully we can stay in the win column again this week as well, with that USC game first up to the plate.
Pac-12 Best Bets - Week 11
USC-Arizona Under 67.5
I do feel like I should be trying harder to make a case for laying the points with USC, here, but I felt comfortable in my case for taking 14 points with Arizona on the road last week vs Utah, and sight unseen for both of those teams, has me not wanting to abandon it yet either.
USC should grade out much higher than Utah when all is said and done though, and if the Trojans don't get caught up being sluggish or flat early, they could go on to an easy route.
But a USC route or a Trojans slow start is never bad for an 'under' play that continues to climb.
If it's a Trojans route from the start, then you get plenty of time to sit on the ball in the second half and have this game land somewhere in the high 50's. A slow start by the Trojans has them trailing, but not often by a huge amount, as their defense is talented enough to mix in a few stops even on a bad day.
Something like a 17-7 half time score in favor of Arizona could turn into a shootout, but it also lands on a USC outright win and ATS loss a lot of the time as well. Keep it tight enough late where a mid-60's total is in those results and the 'under' does connect in it's fair share of opportunities.
I do really wish I had either seen Arizona play or not made the case I did for them last week, because it's what's keeping me off a USC play. I do lean towards USC blowing the doors off this game early, but in most scenarios I'm trusting the defense slightly more to begin with. Might as well flip it to the low side of this total.
Oregon-Washington State Over 57.5
This is a game where I've seen both teams play already, and I think there are a couple of things wrong with this total being here.
To start, Oregon's defense might be getting a bit too much respect after beating a Stanford team that found out late about missing their quarterback.
Prior to that news, Stanford was taking plenty of interest all week long for that game, and fading an Oregon defense that was without guys for various reasons was among that line of thinking.
Then there is the Washington State side of things where the 38 they put up last week can come into question for it coming against the Beavers, but I still think the fit of the new coaching hire there isn't getting enough respect for how smooth it should end up being.
The game between these two teams last year finished with 72 points with the Cougars as double-digit underdogs (+14), and from 2011 through 2016, this rivalry never had a game with fewer than 69 points scored.
Oregon's got the talent to still pull away in a track meet in this kind of matchup on the road, and Washington State should find enough success against a Ducks defense that may still need to answer a few questions.
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