Tech Trends – Week 12

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

19 minute read

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Week 12 of the College Football season kicks off on Tuesday, Nov. 17 with MACtion and concludes on Saturday Nov. 22.

We've identified betting trends and angles for key matchups between FBS and FCS matchups.

We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)

Tuesday, Nov. 17

AKRON at KENT STATE (CBSSN, 7:00 p.m.)

Akron got rare cover vs. Ohio to improve to 2-12 vs. line for head coach Tom Arth
However, Zips shave lost 19 straight dating to Nov. 1, 2018
Kent State won and covered this game 26-3 in 2019
Has covered last four vs. its very nearby rival
Golden Flashes have now covered 8 of last 10 since mid-2019 after Bowling Green romp

Tech Edge: Kent State, based on team and series trends.

BUFFALO at BOWLING GREEN (ESPN, 8:00 p.m.)

Another loss for BGSU vs. Kent State, now 14-37 vs. line since Dino Babers left before Camellia Bowl in 2015
3-11 vs. line since LY for head coach Scot Loeffler
Falcons also 2-11 last 13 as Doyt Perry underdog
Buffalo meanwhile now 28-12-3 last 3+ seasons for coach Lance Leipold after Miami-Ohio win
Bulls have also won last 3 SU (all DD margins) and covered last 6 in series

Tech Edge: Buffalo, based on team and series trends.

Wednesday, Nov. 18

NORTHERN ILLINOIS at BALL STATE (ESPNews, 7:00 p.m.)

Prior to last season’s 27-20 Ball win, Cards had dropped ten in a row SU vs. NIU
Failed to cover seven straight in series
Ball State also just 6-12 vs. line last 18 at Muncie after non-cover vs. EMU last Wednesday
Thomas Hammock is 3-2 as MAC dog since LY for Huskies
But 0-2 in that role this season after last week’s lopsided 48-10 loss to Central Michigan

Tech Edge: None

TOLEDO at EASTERN MICHIGAN (CBSSN, 7:00 p.m.)

EMU great road mark lately but just 2-6 last 8 vs. spread at Rynearson Stadium
Eagles, however, are 3-0-1 vs. line last four in series vs. Toledo
Toledo did get win in 2020 opener vs. BGSU but still just 4-10-1 vs. line since late 2018
Rockets have also failed to cover eight straight away from Glass Bowl after close loss to WMU

Tech Edge: Eastern Michigan, based on series and team trends.

WESTERN MICHIGAN at CENTRAL MICHIGAN (ESPN2, 7:00 p.m.)

CMU on 12-4 spread run since McElwain arrived in 2019 (2-0 in 2020).
Interestingly, road team has covered last 8 in series.
WMU was 3-10 last 13 vs. line as visitor before opening win at Akron.

Tech Edge: Slight to CMU, based on recent trends.

Thursday, Nov. 19

UTAH STATE at WYOMING (CBSSN, 9:00 p.m.)

A tough 2020 start for Utags, 0-4 SU and vs. line.
Coach Gary Andersen forced after Nov. 5 Nevada loss, and now 4-10 vs. spread last 14 since mid-2019.
Wyoming coach Craig Bohl had covered three straight in series prior to close loss LY.
Cowboys 8-2 vs. spread last 10 at Laramie.

Tech Edge: Wyoming, based on team trends.

TULANE at TULSA (ESPN, 7:30 p.m.)

Tulane has covered last five TY, now on 16-7 spread uptick since late 2018
Green Wave has won and covered last three in series
Road team 4-1 vs. line in Tulsa games TY (Tulsa 1-1 home)
Golden Hurricane 3-5 last seven vs. points as host.

Tech Edge: Tulane, based on team trends.

Friday, Nov. 20

SYRACUSE at LOUISVILLE (ESPN, 7:00 p.m.)

Cards coach Scott Satterfield 6-4 vs. line at home since last year
Home team has won and covered big last three in series
Cards have also won and covered in 5 of last 6 meetings

Tech Edge: Louisville, based on series trends.

PURDUE at MINNESOTA (Big Ten, 7:30 p.m.)

Purdue 8-3 spread uptick since late last year
Boilermakers have covered eight straight as a 'dog prior to NU last Saturday.
Gophers have won and covered 4 of last 5 meetings.
However. Minnesota coach P.J. Fleck 1-5-1 vs. spread last seven in regular season.

Tech Edge: Purdue, based on recent trends.

NEW MEXICO at AIR FORCE (FS1, 9:30 p.m.)

Lobos cocach Bob Davie had great spread success vs. Force the past 8 years, covering all but one of the games
Lone non-cover came in 2018
Winning three of five outright 2013-17.
Rocky Long (now Lobos DC) won all seven outright vs. Falcons while at SDSU.
UNM only 6-16 last 22 on board but has covered two in a row.

Tech Edge: New Mexico, based on extended trends.

Saturday, Nov. 21

INDIANA at OHIO STATE (FOX, Noon)

Indiana has covered the spread in 11 of its last 14 games since 2019 (Indiana 6-1 as underdog in last seven).
Indiana has won four straight games.
The road team has covered the spread in four straight games played between both schools
Ohio State has failed to cover the spread in five of its last eight games after covering the spread in eight straight prior.
Ryan Day has covered the spread in six of his last eight home games.

Tech Edge: Indiana based on recent and series trends.

CLEMSON at FLORIDA STATE (ABC, Noon)

This used to be a big game not long ago!
Clemson has won five straight games when facing FSU, while covering the spread in three straight against the Seminoles.
Clemson is 2-6 vs the line this year.
Clemson is 1-2 vs the line when facing a conference opponent on the road (9-1-1 in previous 11 vs spread when facing conference opponent on the road).
Mike Norvell has lost six of his last eight games with FSU, and is 1-5 vs. the line when playing in Tallahassee.
FSU has lost six of its last eight games as the underdog.

Tech Edge: Clemson based on team and series trends.

WAKE FOREST at DUKE (ACCN, Noon)

Wake Forest has won large in two straight games when facing Duke.
Wake Forest has covered the spread in three of its last four games when facing Duke.
Wake Forest has covered the spread in five straight games, and six of its last seven games.
David Cutcliffe is 2-5-1 over his last eight conference home games vs. the spread (includes Notre Dame last year).

Tech Edge: Wake Forest based on recent and series trends.

ILLINOIS at NEBRASKA (BTN, Noon)

Scott Frost lost six of eight games as the favorite last year.
Frost is 4-11 vs. the points since last year.
Lovie Smith has lost six of his last seven games since 2019 (3-4 vs. the line in those).
Smith has gone UNDER the point total in eight of his last 11 games (series has gone way OVER last two years).

Tech Edge: Slight OVER based on recent point total trends.

APP STATE at COASTAL CAROLINA (ESPN2, Noon)

Appalachian State is 1-6 vs the line this season, and 1-7 in last eight on board.
Appalachian State is 3-0 getting points as the underdog since 2018.
Appalachian State has won three straight games when facing Coastal Carolina, and has covered in two straight against the Chanticleers.
Coastal Carolina has won seven straight games, and has covered the spread in nine of its last 13 games since mid 2019.
Appalachian State has gone UNDER the point total in six of its last seven games, though this game saw 93 total points last year.

Tech Edge: Slight to Chanticleers based on recent trends.

EAST CAROLINA at TEMPLE (ESPN+, Noon)

ECU is 5-3 vs the spread over last eight road games, 2-2 this season.
ECU has lost five straight games when facing Temple, covering one of those games (2019).
Temple has failed to cover the spread in five of its last seven games on board since late 2019 (backdoor cover against UCF last week).

Tech Edge: Slight to Pirates based on recent trends.

MICHIGAN STATE at MARYLAND (BTN, Noon)

Mel Tucker is 5-12 since 2019 and 6-15 over his last 21 games vs. the number on the board since 2018.
Maryland has covered the spread in three of its last four games when facing Michigan State.
The road team has covered the spread in three straight games played between both schools.

Tech Edge: Maryland based on recent trends.

HOUSTON at SMU (ESPNU, Noon)

Dana Holgorsen is 9-9 vs. the spread since last year, and has lost 11 of his last 18 games.
Holgorsen has failed to cover the spread in four straight, and five of his last six games as the underdog.
Houston covered against SMU last season, but the Mustangs covered four straight years prior.
Sonny Dykes has won seven of his last 10 home games vs. the points.

Tech Edge: SMU based on team trends.

FLORIDA at VANDERBILT (ESPN, Noon)

Vanderbilt has failed to cover the spread in 13 of its last 19 games.
Vanderbilt has lost eight of its last nine home games vs. the line when facing an FBS-school.
Florida has covered the spread in three straight games when facing Vanderbilt.

Tech Edge: Rice based on team trends.

LSU at ARKANSAS (SECN, Noon)

Arkansas has covered the spread in two straight games when facing LSU.
Arkansas has won six of its last seven games vs. the line.
LSU is 2-3 vs. the line this year.

Tech Edge: Arkansas based on team trends.

GEORGIA SOUTHERN at ARMY (CBSSN, Noon)

Georgia Southern has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last 10 road games.
Army has gone UNDER the point total in 13 of its last 21 games.
Georgia Southern has gone UNDER the point total in eight of its last 10 games.
This game might go fast!

Tech Edge: Slight Army and UNDER based on team trends and point total trends.

FIU at WESTERN KENTUCKY (ESPN3, 2 p.m.)

Western Kentucky has failed to cover the spread in 10 of its last 11 games.
FIU covered the spread in three straight games against Western Kentucky prior to last year's 20-14 loss.
Butch Davis has failed to cover the spread in 12 of his last 17 games since 2019.

Tech Edge: FIU based on recent trends.

RICE at NORTH TEXAS (ESPN3, 2 p.m.)

North Texas has failed to cover the spread in 18 of its last 23 games.
Rice has covered the spread in 12 of its last 20 games, and two straight when facing North Texas.

Tech Edge: Rice based on team trends.

UTSA at SOUTHERN MISS (ESPN+, 3 p.m.)

Southern Miss is 1-6 vs. the line this season.
Southern Miss has failed to cover the spread in nine of its last 10 games since 2019.
The road team has covered the spread in three straight games
Southern Miss has gone UNDER the point total in 10 of its last 13 games

Tech Edge: UTSA and UNDER based on team and point total trends.

ARKANSAS STATE at TEXAS STATE (ESPN3, 3 p.m.)

Arkansas State has won five straight games by 18 or more points when facing Texas State (covered in four of those games).
Texas State has covered the spread in three straight home games.
Despite last week's high total, Texas State has gone UNDER the point total in 20 of its last 29 games.

Tech Edge: Arkansas State and UNDER based on team and point total trends.

WISCONSIN at NORTHWESTERN (ABC, 3:30 p.m.)

Northwestern has covered the spread in three straight games, and five of its last six games when facing Wisconsin.
Northwestern has covered or pushed the spread in seven straight games
Pat Fitzgerald has covered the spread in 17 of his last 27 games since 2016.
Wisconsin is 4-5 vs. the spread in last nine conference road games.

Tech Edge: Northwestern based on team and series trends.

CINCINNATI at CENTRAL FLORIDA (ESPN, 3:30 p.m.)

UCF has failed to cover the spread in 12 of its last 17 games since early 2019.
UCF has lost six of its last seven home games vs. number.
Cincinnati has covered the spread in four straight road games, and six of its last eight road games vs. the line.
Cincinnati won last year's meeting 27-24, but dropped three straight to UCF prior.

Tech Edge: Bearcats based on recent trends.

IOWA at PENN STATE (BTN, 3:30 p.m.)

James Franklin is 0-4 SU and vs. the line this year (2-7 over last nine since late 2019).
Penn State has won four straight games when facing Iowa.
Kirk Ferentz 16-8-1 vs the spread when facing an AP-ranked Top 25 Big Ten school on the road.

Tech Edge: Iowa based on recent trends.

CALIFORNIA at OREGON STATE (FS1, 3:30 p.m.)

California has covered the spread in seven of its last nine conference road games after last week's loss to UCLA.
Oregon State has seen the road team cover the spread in nine of its last 10 games.
Oregon State upset Cal in Berkeley last year, 21-17.

Tech Edge: Cal based on team trends.

TEXAS at KANSAS (ESPN2, 3:30 p.m.)

Les Miles is 0-6-1 vs. the line in last seven games, and 1-9-1 in last 11 on board.
Kansas has covered the spread in four straight games when facing Texas, and three straight against Tom Herman.
Kansas has gone OVER the point total in eight of its last nine games.
Texas has gone OVER the point total in 13 of its last 20 games.

Tech Edge: Slight Texas and OVER based on Kansas recent woes and point total trends.

SAN DIEGO STATE at NEVADA (CBS, 3:30 p.m.)

Nevada has won four straight games.
Nevada has covered the spread in three of its last four games.
Nevada has covered the spread in eight of its last 10 home games when facing an FBS-school.
San Diego State has gone UNDER the point total in 15 of its last 18 games since 2018.

Tech Edge: Nevada and UNDER based on team and point total trends.

MIDDLE TENNESSEE at TROY (ESPN3, 3:30 p.m.)

Troy has failed to cover the spread in 12 of its last 19 games since Chip Lindsey arrived.
Under Lindsey, Troy has failed to cover the spread in six of its last nine home games.
Middle Tennessee has covered the spread in four of its last six games.
Middle Tennessee has covered the spread in six of its last nine games as the underdog.

Tech Edge: MTSU based on team trends.

KENTUCKY at ALABAMA (SECN, 4 p.m.)

Alabama has covered the spread in three straight home games this year.
Kentucky has won seven of its last 10 games as the underdog.
Kentucky has gone UNDER the point total in five of its last seven games this year.

Tech Edge: Kentucky and UNDER based on team and point total trends.

KANSAS STATE at IOWA STATE (FOX, 4 p.m.)

Kansas State has won nine of its last 12 games as the underdog since last year.
Kansas State has won 24 of its last 32 games as the underdog.
Kansas State has covered the spread in five of its last six games this season.
Iowa State has lost five of its last six home games as the favorite.
Kansas State has covered the spread in two straight games when facing Iowa State.

Tech Edge: Wildcats based on team trends.

VIRGINIA TECH at PITTSBURGH (ACCN, 4 p.m.)

Virgnia Tech is 1-3 vs the line when playing on the road this year.
Virgnia Tech is 1-5 vs the spread over its last six road games.
Piittsburgh covered five straight games when facing Virginia Tech prior to last year's 28-0 loss to the Hokies.

Tech Edge: Pitt based on team and extended series trends.

GEORGIA STATE at SOUTH ALABAMA (ESPNU, 4 p.m.)

GSU has gone OVER the point total in six of its last eight games.
South Alabama has gone UNDER the point total in 15 of its last 20 games.
South Alabama is 10-5-1 over its last 16 games vs. the line

Tech Edge: Slight Jaguars and UNDER based on team and point total trends.

UNLV at COLORADO STATE (FS2, 5:30 p.m.)

UNLV has lost four straight games, and has failed to cover the spread in four straight games.
UNLV has failed to cover the spread in nine of its last 11 conference road games.
Colorado State is 5-3 vs. the line when facing a conference opponent at home.
Colorado State has won and covered the spread in four straight games when facing UNLV (dating back to 2011).

Tech Edge: Colorado State based on team and extended series trends.

TENNESSEE at AUBURN (ESPN, 7 p.m.)

Tennessee has no wins or cover in four straight games after winning eight straight prior.
Gus Malzhan is 7-3 vs. the spread in last 10 home games.
Tennessee has gone UNDER the point total in 17 of its last 24 games.
Auburn has gone UNDER the point total in nine of its last 12 games.

Tech Edge: Auburn and UNDER based on team and point total trends.

MISSISSIPPI STATE at GEORGIA (SECN, 7 p.m.)

Mississippi State has failed to cover the spread in five straight games since opening win over LSU.
Mike Leach has failed to cover the spread in 16 of his last 21 games dating back to late 2018.
Georgia has seen the home team win five straight games vs. the line (Florida game considered neutral).
Kirby Smart has gone UNDER the point total in 14 of his last 20 games since last year.
Mississippi State has gone UNDER the point total in five straight games.

Tech Edge: UNDER and Georgia based on point total and team trends.

SAN JOSE STATE at FRESNO STATE (CBSSN, 7 p.m.)

San Jose State is 4-0 vs. the line this year, and 13-4-1 over its last 17 games.
Fresno State is 3-1 vs. the line, but 5-9-1 vs. the spread since early 2019.

Tech Edge: Spartans based on team trends.

OKLAHOMA STATE at OKLAHOMA (ABC, 7:30 p.m.)

The road team has covered three straight games played between both schools, and seven of the last eight games as well.
Jeff Gundy has won 11 of his last 14 games as the underdog.

Tech Edge: Cowboys based on team and series trends.

MISSOURI at SOUTH CAROLINA (SECN Alt, 7:30 p.m.)

Missouri has seen the home team win five straight games vs. the line.
Missouri is 0-3 vs. the line when playing on the road.
Missouri has failed to cover the spread in eight straight road games going back to 2018.
South Carolina has covered the spread in four of its last seven conference home games.

Tech Edge: South Carolina based on team trends.

LIBERTY at N.C. STATE (ESPN3, 7:30 p.m.)

Liberty has won nine straight games.
Liberty has covered the spread in six of its last eight games, and nine of its last 12 games.
If getting points, note Hugh Freeze is 5-1 in his last six games as the underdog.
Liberty is 2-0 vs. the line when facing the ACC this year.
N.C. State is 4-0 vs. the line at home this season, and 6-2 overall.
N.C. State has gone OVER the point total in nine of its last 12 games.

Tech Edge: Slight Liberty and OVER based on recent and point total trends.

MICHIGAN at RUTGERS (BTN, 7:30 p.m.)

Jim Harbaugh is 8-13 vs. the spread over last 21 games (no wins or covers in last three games).
Michigan has lost two of its last three vs. the line when facing Rutgers since the 78-0 win in 2016.
Rutgers has covered two of its last four games this year.

Tech Edge: Rutgers based on recent trends.

ARIZONA at WASHINGTON (FOX, 8 p.m.)

Kevin Sumlin covered in opener vs. USC, but 3-9 vs. the spread last year and 2-4 when facing a conference opponent on the road.
After failing to cover against Oregon State last week, Washington is now 3-9 vs. the points when facing a conference opponent at home (1-9 exlcuding Washington State).
Washington won and covered the spread in Arizona last year, 51-27.

Tech Edge: Washington based on recent Arizona woes.

NAVY at SOUTH FLORIDA (ESPNU, 8 p.m.)

USF has seen the road team cover six of its last seven games (0-2 at home vs. the line).
USF has failed to cover the spread in 10 of its last 12 home games when facing an FBS-school.
Navy is 2-01 vs. the line when playing on the road, and is 7-2 vs. points away from Annapolis since early last year.

Tech Edge: Navy based on team trends.

WASHINGTON STATE at STANFORD (FS1, 11 p.m.)

Washiington State has won four straight games when facing Stanford, and has covered the spread in five srtaight games when facing the Cardinal.
Stanford has failed to cover the spread in 12 of its last 15 games.

Tech Edge: Washington State based on team trends.

BOISE STATE at HAWAI'I (CBSSN, 11 p.m.)

Boise State is 3-3 in last six road games as the favorite (went 36-16 in 52 games prior).
Hawai'i has lost 25 of its last 36 home games vs. the line since 2015.

Tech Edge: Hawai'i based on team trends.

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