SEC Betting Notebook – Week 12

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SEC Week 12 Schedule & Odds

• Florida (-31.5, 68) at Vanderbilt
• LSU (-1, 63.5) at Arkansas
• Kentucky at Alabama (-31.5, 58)
• Tennessee at Auburn (-10.5, 50.5)
• Mississippi State at Georgia (-25, 44.5)
• Missouri (-6, 57) at South Carolina
• Ole Miss at Texas A&M - Postponed

How to Handicap SEC Week 12

(Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS)

Scheduled for Saturday, Nov. 22

Florida (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) at Vanderbilt (0-6 SU, 3-3 ATS)

• TV-Time:: ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET
• Venue: Vanderbilt Stadium
• Location: Nashville, Tennessee

-- As of Friday afternoon, most betting shops had Florida (5-1 straight up, 4-2 against the spread) installed as a 31.5-point favorite with a total of 68. The Gators are 18 or 18.5-point favorites for first-half bets. I’m endorsing a strong play on UF in the first half. I haven’t been able to locate a first-half team total for the Gators (yet), but that’ll be a large ‘over’ play for me if it’s 28 points or fewer.

-- Dan Mullen’s team took it to Arkansas early and often in a 63-35 win as a 17-point home ‘chalk.’ The 98 combined points soared ‘over’ the 62-point total. Kyle Trask completed 23-of-29 passes for 356 yards and six touchdowns without an interception. Emory Jones connected on 4-of-7 throws for 29 yards and one TD without an interception, in addition to rushing for 37 yards and one TD on six attempts. Trevon Grimes had six catches for 109 yards and two TDs, while true freshman wide receiver Xzavier Henderson had three receptions for 62 yards and one TD. With star TE Kyle Pitts ‘out’ (concussion, nasal surgery), his backup TE Keon Zipperer emerged with three grabs for 47 yards and two TDs. Justin Shorter and Jacob Copeland added 21 and 33-yard TD catches, respectively.

-- Pitts remains ‘out’ this week vs. Vanderbilt. In an ESPN interview last Saturday morning, Mullen said Pitts would be back “at some point later in the season.” With UF set to be favored by a double-digit margin against its final four opponents, there isn’t any rush to get Pitts back on the field. In five games, the junior had 24 receptions for 414 yards and eight TDs. He suffered injuries in a violent collision on Nov. 7 in UF’s 44-28 win over Georgia.

-- Trask is a +175 co-favorite to win the Heisman Trophy at some shops after last Saturday’s sensational performance. He is the first QB in SEC history to throw four or more TD passes in six consecutive games. For the season, Trask has completed 70.1 percent of his passes for 2,171 yards with a 28/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

-- Florida senior WR Kadarius Toney has 36 catches for 396 yards and six TDs. The senior speedster has 80 rushing yards and one TD on 12 carries for a 6.7 yards-per-carry average. Trask has been spreading the wealth around and getting as many teammates as possible involved. In fact, the fifth-year senior has found 10 different players for TD passes. Grimes has 19 receptions for 303 yards and five TDs, while RB Malik Davis has 16 grabs for 267 yards.

-- Florida redshirt freshman WR Trent Whittemore sustained an injury to his ribs vs. Arkansas and is out indefinitely. Whittemore has eight catches for 81 yards and one TD. The Gators might also be without senior BUCK Jeremiah Moon at Vanderbilt. Moon left the win over UGA with a foot injury and was unable to go against the Razorbacks. He’s listed as ‘questionable’ at Vandy.

-- Florida has won 28 of the last 29 head-to-head meetings against Vanderbilt, including six in a row. The Gators crushed the Commodores 56-0 at The Swamp last year.

-- UF is seventh in the nation in scoring with its 45.8 points-per-game average.

-- Vanderbilt (0-6 SU, 3-3 ATS) is off its best offensive performance of the season in a 38-35 loss at Kentucky. The Commodores easily took the cash as 17-point road underdogs. They bested their highest previous offensive output – from a 54-21 home loss to Ole Miss – by 14 points against a UK defense that is ranked No. 24 nationally in scoring defense (21.4 points per game).

-- True freshman QB Ken Seals completed 21-of-32 passes for 225 yards and two TDs without an interception last week at UK. Keyon Brooks ran for 121 yards on 29 carries, while Amir Abdur-Rahman had seven receptions for 89 yards. Senior WR Chris Pierce caught three balls for 53 yards and one TD, and sophomore TE Ben Bresnahan had four catches for 48 yards and one TD. Cam Johnson added four receptions for 17 yards and one TD.

-- Brooks is listed as ‘questionable (ribs) vs. UF, but Derek Mason sounded optimistic that his leading rusher would be able to go against the Gators, who are ranked No. 53 nationally in run defense (150.8 yards per game). Brooks has 374 rushing yards, two TDs and a 4.4 YPC average in four games played this year. Brook has enjoyed back-to-back 100-yard efforts, as he produced 115 rushing yards and one TD on 20 carries in a 24-17 loss at Mississippi St. two weeks ago.

-- For the season, Seals has connected on 66.8 percent of his passes for 1,291 yards with an 8/8 TD-INT ratio. Johnson has a team-best 37 receptions for 355 yards and two TDs, while Abdur-Rahman has 18 grabs for 260 yards and one TD. Bresnahan has 21 catches for 217 yards and three TDs, and Pierce has 16 receptions for 204 yards and three TDs.

-- Vandy is 0-3 both SU and ATS at home, giving up 41, 41 and 54 points to LSU, South Carolina and Ole Miss, respectively. The ‘Dores are allowing an average of 35.8 PPG through six contests.

-- The ‘over’ is 5-1 overall for the Gators, who have seen their games average combined scores of 75.8 PPG. The ‘over’ is 2-0 for UF in a pair of road assignments, with those combined scores producing 86 and 79 points.

-- The ‘over’ is on a 3-1 run for Vandy after its first two games went ‘under.’ The ‘over’ is 2-1 in the Commodores’ three home outings.

-- Vanderbilt is mired in an atrocious 1-12 ATS slump in its last 13 games as a home underdog. During his seven-year tenure at Vandy, Mason has compiled a 10-15 spread record in 25 home underdog situations.

-- Mullen has a 6-2 ATS record in eight games as a road favorite since taking over at UF in 2018.

LSU (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) at Arkansas (3-4 SU, 6-1 ATS)

• TV-Time:: SEC, 12:00 p.m. ET
• Venue: Razorback Stadium
• Location: Fayetteville, Arkansas

-- As of late Friday afternoon, most books had LSU (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) installed as a one-point favorite with a total of 63.5.

-- Ed Orgeron’s team is 1-2 both SU and ATS in three road assignments. The Tigers are returning to the field for the first time since losing 48-11 at Auburn on Oct. 31. With QB Myles Brennan still out with an abdominal injury, true freshman TJ Finley will get his third career start.

-- Finley led the Tigers to a 52-24 win over South Carolina as 4.5-point home ‘chalk’ on Oct. 24. Finley connected on 17-of-21 passes for 265 yards and two TDs with one interception against the Gamecocks. He also had 24 rushing yards and one TD. However, Finley wasn’t nearly as sharp at Auburn, completing just 13-of-24 throws for 143 yards and two interceptions. Another true freshman QB, Max Johnson, replaced Finley on The Plains and completed 15-of-24 passes for 172 yards and one TD without an interception.

-- LSU junior WR Terrace Marshall has 31 receptions for 540 yards and nine TDs. True freshman TE Arik Gilbert has 22 catches for 259 yards and two TDs.

-- LSU sophomore RB John Emery has a team-high 246 rushing yards and two TDs. He averages 5.1 YPC and has 8 catches for 51 yards.

-- LSU owns an 8-5 spread record in 13 games as a road favorite on Orgeron’s watch.

-- LSU is ranked No. 112 nationally in total defense, giving up 478.6 yards per game. The Tigers are even worse at defending the pass, ranking No. 123 nationally (335.2 YPG).

-- Arkansas (3-4 SU, 6-1 ATS) has won outright in two of its three home games, going 3-0 ATS. The Razorbacks have wins over Ole Miss (33-21) and Tennessee (24-13) at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium.

-- Arkansas first-year head coach Sam Pittman missed last week’s loss at UF after testing positive for COVID-19. However, he’s recovered and will be back on the sidelines Saturday afternoon in Fayetteville.

-- In last week’s loss at UF, Arkansas senior QB Feleipe Franks played extremely well in his old stadium. The Wakulla County (FL.) HS product completed 15-of-19 attempts for 250 yards and two TDs without an interception. Junior RB Trelon Smith had 118 rushing yards and one TD on eight totes, while Rakeem Boyd ran for 56 yards and one TD on 12 carries. Mike Woods had two catches for 129 yards and two TDs.

-- Franks has completed 68.3 percent of his passes for 1,678 yards with a 16/3 TD-INT ratio. He also has 186 rushing yards.

-- Smith has run for a team-high 441 yards and one TD with a 5.7 YPC average. Boyd has 309 rushing yards and three TDs, averaging 3.8 YPC.

-- Burks has 34 receptions for 508 yards and five TDs, while Woods has 23 catches for 413 yards and four TDs. Senior WR De’Vion Warren will miss the rest of the season after tearing his ACL last week. Warren had 15 catches for 278 yards and three TDs.

-- LSU has won four games in a row in this rivalry, but the Razorbacks are 2-0 ATS in the last two encounters.

-- The ‘under’ is 4-3 overall for the Razorbacks, 3-0 in their home games.

-- The ‘over’ is 3-2 overall for LSU, but the ‘under’ is 2-1 in its three road outings.

Kentucky (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) at Alabama (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS)

• TV-Time:: SEC, 4:00 p.m. ET
• Venue: Bryant-Denny Stadium
• Location: Tuscaloosa, Alabama

-- As of late Friday afternoon, most spots had Alabama (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS) listed as a 30-point favorite with a total of 58. The Crimson Tide is favored by 17.5 points for first-half wagers. Some shops have the Wildcats with +1600 (or 16/1) odds to win outright at Bryant-Denny Stadium.

-- Nick Saban’s team is 3-0 both SU and ATS in three home games. Alabama has home wins over Mississippi St. (41-0), Georgia (41-24) Texas A&M (52-24).

-- Alabama hasn’t played since blanking Mississippi St. by a 41-0 count as a 29-point home favorite. I was on the Crimson Tide -8.5 in the first quarter, -18 in the first half and ‘over’ its team total of 26.5 in the first half. I cashed all three of those wagers when ‘Bama led 17-0 at the end of the first quarter and 27-0 at intermission. However, I lost on the ‘over’ for the game when the 41 combined points dropped ‘under’ the 64-point tally.

-- Alabama is ranked third in the nation in both passing yards (380.0 YPG) and scoring with its 47.2 PPG average. The Crimson Tide is sixth in the country in total offense (555.2 YPG).

-- Mac Jones has completed 78.5 percent of his passes for 2,196 yards with a 16/2 TD-INT ratio. RB Najee Harris, who can be found on Heisman Trophy odds boards anywhere from 50/1 to 80/1 (he still has a chance and I approve of a small wager on this), has 714 rushing yards, 14 TDs and a 5.8 YPC average. He also has 20 catches for 183 yards.

-- Alabama senior WR DeVonta Smith is enjoying another stellar season in what has already been a brilliant collegiate career. Smith, who was a fourth-team All-American in 2019, has 56 receptions for 759 yards and eight TDs. Sophomore WR John Metchie has emerged as a big-time playmaker, catching 24 balls for 517 yards and three TDs.

-- According to multiple reports earlier this week, Alabama WR Jaylen Waddle is ahead of schedule in his recovery from surgery on his broken ankle sustained in an Oct. 24 win at Tennessee. In fact, Waddle is hoping he can return if the Crimson Tide makes the CFP semifinals. Waddle had 25 receptions for 557 yards and four TDs in four games (he was injured on the opening kickoff of the fifth game).

-- Kentucky (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) is 1-2 both SU and ATS in three road assignments. The Wildcats picked up their lone road win by destroying Tennessee 34-7 at Neyland Stadium as 6.5-point road underdogs.

-- Kentucky failed to cover the number as a 17-point home favorite in last week’s 38-35 win over Vanderbilt. Senior QB Terry Wilson connected on 13-of-15 passes for 110 yards and two TDs without an interception. He added 83 rushing yards and one TD on seven attempts, while RB Chris Rodriguez had 149 rushing yards and two TDs on 13 carries. Keaton Upshaw had two catches for 41 yards and one TD, while senior TE Justin Rigg had a 15-yard TD reception.

-- Wilson has completed 64.9 percent of his passes for 709 yards with a 6/1 TD-INT ratio. He is the Wildcats’ second-leading rusher with 334 yards, four TDs and a 4.9 YPC average. Rodriguez has a team-high 562 rushing yards, six TDs and a 6.4 YPC average. Josh Ali is Wilson’s favorite target, hauling in 33 receptions for 340 yards and one TD.

-- Kentucky has a 15-15 spread record in 30 games as a road underdog during Mark Stoops’s eight-year tenure.

-- The ‘under’ is 5-2 overall for the ‘Cats, 3-0 in their road contests.

-- The ‘over’ is 4-2 overall for ‘Bama, 3-0 in its games that have had totals in the 50s and 2-1 in its three home outings.

Tennessee (2-4 SU, 1-4-1 ATS) at Auburn (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS)

• TV-Time:: ESPN, 7:00 p.m. ET
• Venue: Jordan-Hare Stadium
• Location: Auburn, Alabama

-- The only road win over a ranked team during Jeremy Pruitt’s three-year tenure came at Jordan-Hare Stadium in 2018, when unranked Tennessee knocked off 21st-ranked Auburn 30-24 as a 14.5-point road underdog. This time around, the Volunteers come to The Plains with hopes of ending a four-game losing streak as a double-digit underdog once again.

-- As of Friday afternoon, most books had Auburn (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) listed as a 10.5-point home favorite with a total of 50.5. The Volunteers were +320 on the money line at most shops.

-- Tennessee (2-4 SU, 1-4-1 ATS) was on an eight-game winning streak and took a 21-17 lead into halftime at Georgia after making a valiant fourth-and-goal stop on the final play of the first half. Since then, however, Pruitt’s team has been outscored 133-37 in 14 quarters of play. The third-year head coach has gone from the toast of Knoxville to likely being run out of town at the end of the season in a span of 40 days.

-- Tennessee has lost two of its three road games, going 0-2-1 ATS. The Vols won their season opener 31-27 at South Carolina as four-point road ‘chalk.’ They’ve lost 44-21 at Georgia and 24-13 at Arkansas.

-- After leading 13-0 at halftime at Arkansas two weeks ago, Tennessee was outscored 24-0 in the second half. The Vols lost outright as two-point road favorites. Three different QBs saw playing time, combining for 11 completions on 21 attempts for 107 yards with zero TDs and two interceptions. RB Eric Gray was the lone bright spot offensively, rushing for 123 yards and one TD on 31 carries.

-- Gray has a team-high 478 rushing yards, three TDs and a 4.3 YPC average. Josh Palmer has a team-best 21 receptions for 323 yards and four TDs. Senior QB Jarrett Guarantano has completed 61.5 percent of his passes for 956 yards with a 6/3 TD-INT ratio. Guarantano also has three rushing TDs.

-- Tennessee is 6-3 ATS in nine games as a road underdog.

-- Gus Malzahn’s team is undefeated in three home games with a 2-1 spread record.

-- Auburn saw its game at Mississippi State postponed last week, while the Vols saw their home game vs. Texas A&M postponed.

-- During a Zoom media scrum earlier this week, Malzahn conceded that “several” of the 10 players who tested positive for COVID-19 last week wouldn’t be available vs. UT. He declined to go into any other specific when pressed with follow-up questions.

-- Auburn is off a 48-11 win over LSU as a one-point home favorite. Bo Nix had a brilliant performance, completing 18-of-24 passes for 300 yards and three TDs without an interception. Nix, who has a 7/0 TD-INT ratio in three home games this year, ran for 81 yards and one TD on 11 carries. True freshman RB Tank Bigsby had 71 rushing yards and two TDs on 15 totes. Anthony Schwartz had four receptions for 123 yards and one TD, while Seth Williams caught four balls for 71 yards. Eli Stove added five catches for 64 yards and one TD and had 21 rushing yards on three attempts.

-- Auburn is 19-24-1 ATS in 44 games as a home favorite on Malzahn’s watch since 2013.

-- The ‘under’ has cashed in three straight games for the Vols to improve to 4-2 overall. The ‘over’ is 2-1 in their three road assignments, though.

-- The ‘under’ has hit in three consecutive Auburn games to improve to 5-1 overall and 2-1 in its home contests.

Missouri (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS) at South Carolina (2-5 SU, 3-3-1 ATS)

• TV-Time:: SEC Alternate, 7:30 p.m. ET
• Venue: Williams-Brice Stadium
• Location: Columbia, South Carolina

-- After last Saturday’s 59-42 loss at Ole Miss, South Carolina (2-5 SU, 4-3 ATS) parted ways with Will Muschamp before the end of his fifth season at the helm. Muschamp’s tenure ends with a 28-30 SU record and a 31-27 ATS mark. The defensive-minded head coach’s fate was sealed when his team allowed 159 points during a three-game losing streak.

-- Since Muschamp’s dismissal, four players have opted out of the rest of the season. Three are key members of the defense including junior CB Israel Mukuamu, a second-team All-SEC selection in 2019. Junior CB Jaycee Horn, who was the catalyst in a 30-22 win over Auburn on Oct. 17 when he had four passes broken up, three tackles and two interceptions, has also left the team along with junior safety RJ Roderick, who had 134 career tackles for the Gamecocks.

-- As of late Friday afternoon, most books had Missouri (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS) listed as a 6.5-point road favorite with a total of 57. The Gamecocks were +190 on the money line.

-- Mike Bobo, the former Colorado State head coach who was in his first season as offensive coordinator under Muschamp, has been named the interim head coach.

-- South Carolina is 1-2 SU and 1-1-1 ATS at home this year. As a home underdog since Muschamp took over in 2016, the Gamecocks are 6-7-1 ATS.

-- In last week’s loss in Oxford, sophomore RB Kevin Harris erupted for 243 rushing yards and five TDs on 25 attempts. His fifth TD came on a 12-yard scamper that put South Carolina ahead 42-38 with 12:50 remaining. However, the Rebels responded with 21 straight points in the last 12:02 of play to cover the spread as 12.5-point home ‘chalk.’

-- In the losing effort at Ole Miss, Collin Hill completed 17-of-28 passes for 230 yards and one TD with one interception. Shi Smith had 10 receptions for 117 yards and one TD. Jalen Brooks had three catches for 47 yards. Brooks missed some practice time this week due to back spasms and is listed as ‘questionable.’

-- For the season, Harris has 817 rushing yards and 13 TDs with a 6.2 YPC average. His backup, RB Deshaun Fenwick, has played well, too. He had 82 rushing yards on nine carries at Ole Miss. Fenwick has 290 rushing yards on 489 carries for a 5.9 YPC average. Smit has 53 receptions for 596 yards and four TDs.

-- Missouri is 0-2 both SU and ATS in a pair of road games. The Tigers lost 35-12 at Tennessee and 44-17 at Florida.

-- Missouri head coach Eli Drinkwitz revealed earlier this week that his team was only going to have 56 scholarship players available if it got through the rest of the week without any more COVID-19 positive test results.

-- Missouri has a pair of home wins this season, beating Kentucky (20-10) and LSU (45-41). The Tigers haven’t played since a 41-17 loss at Florida on Oct. 31. Redshirt freshman QB Connor Bazelak completed 26-of-40 throws for 208 yards with zero TDs or interceptions. Senior RB Larry Rountree was limited to a season-low 36 rushing yards and one TD on 14 carries.

-- In five games this year, Bazelak has completed 69.1 percent of his passes for 1,101 yards with a 4/1 TD-INT ratio. Jalen Knox is his favorite target, producing 22 catches for 236 yards. Rountree, a third-team All-SEC selection in 2019 when he had 829 rushing yards and nine TDs, has 432 rushing yards, four TDs and a 4.3 YPC average.

-- Missouri went 0-4 ATS as a road favorite last season.

-- South Carolina saw its three-game winning streak over Missouri snapped in a 34-14 loss as a 9.5-point road underdog last season.

-- The ‘over’ is 5-2 overall for South Carolina, but the ‘under’ has cashed at a 2-1 clip in its three home contests.

-- The ‘under’ is 3-2 overall for Mizzou, 2-0 in its road outings.

Mississippi State (2-4 SU, 1-5 ATS) at Georgia (4-2 SU, 2-4 ATS)

• TV-Time:: SEC, 7:30 p.m. ET
• Venue: Sanford Stadium
• Location: Athens, Georgia

-- As of late Friday afternoon, most shops had Georgia (4-2 SU, 2-4 ATS) installed as a 24.5-point favorite with a total of 44.5. The money-line odds for Mississippi St. are in the +1100 (or 11/1) neighborhood. Most shops have UGA as a 14.5-point favorite for first-half wagers.

-- With QB Stetson Bennett out with a shoulder injury sustained vs. Florida, USC transfer JT Daniels will finally see his first game action in a Georgia uniform. Daniels is set to start 14.5 months after tearing his ACL in the Trojans’ season opener last year. In 11 games as a true freshman for USC in 2018, Daniels completed 59.5 percent of his passes for 2,672 yards with a 14/10 TD-INT ratio.

-- Daniels will have George Pickens available to target. Pickens didn’t make the trips to Kentucky or Jacksonville for UGA’s last two games due to an upper-body injury. The sophomore WR was upgraded to ‘probable’ on Thursday. In four games this season, Pickens has 13 catches for 140 yards and two TDs.

-- Georgia is 11-15 ATS in 26 games as a home favorite during Kirby Smart’s five-year tenure.

-- UGA is 2-0 both SU and ATS at home with wins over Tennessee (44-21) and Auburn (27-6).

-- Mike Leach’s team is 1-2 both SU and ATS in three road assignments. According to multiple reports, Mississippi St. only had 49 scholarship players travel to Athens. Eighteen players have left the program with intentions of entering the transfer portal, while four others have opted out, including RB Kylan Hill, who was a fourth-team All-American in 2019.

-- Mississippi State (2-4 SU, 1-5 ATS) is mired in a 0-5 ATS slump since winning 44-34 at LSU in its season opener. The Bulldogs snapped a four-game losing streak with their 24-17 win over Vanderbilt two weeks ago, but they failed to cover the number as 18-point home ‘chalk.’ True freshman QB Will Rogers completed 35-of-46 passes for 226 yards and one TD without an interception against the Commodores. True freshman WR Malik Heath had nine catches for 79 yards, while senior WR Osirus Mitchell had four receptions for 32 yards and one TD.

-- In four games, Rogers has completed 71.6 percent of his passes for 536 yards with a 2/4 TD-INT ratio. Mitchell has 26 receptions for 336 yards and three TDs.

-- Mississippi St. is 11-18 ATS in 29 games as a road underdog since 2010.

-- Since its opener at LSU saw the ‘over’ easily cash, the ‘under’ has been a winner in five consecutive games for MSU.

-- Totals have been a wash overall (3-3) and at home (1-1) for UGA.

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