Tech Trends – Week 1

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

18 minute read

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Week 1 of the College Football season kicks off on Thursday, September 2 and concludes on Monday, September 6.

We've identified betting trends and angles for key matchups between FBS squads.

We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)

Thursday, Sep. 2

TEMPLE at RUTGERS (BTN, 6:30 p.m.)

Owls just 2-5 vs. line in 2020 and 2-5 vs. spread last seven away from home.
Schiano improved Scarlet Knights to 5-4 vs. line a season ago after 4-8 mark in 2019.
Still rare chalk for Rutgers, 0-1 in role a year ago, and just 4-3 since 2016.

Tech Edge: Slight to Rutgers, based on team trends.

BOISE STATE at UCF (ESPN, 7:00 p.m.)

Avalos debut at Boise, Malzahn debut at UCF.
Heupel closed his UCF run with covers in only 4 of last 14 games, and Golden Knights 1-6 last 7 as Orlando chalk.
Malzahn teams 12-18-1 vs. spread as home chalk since 2015 at Auburn (though did improve to 6-2 in role past 2 years).
Boise 5-2 in rare road dog role since 2017 (4-1 away).

Tech Edge:Boise, based on team trends.

EAST CAROLINA vs. APPALACHIAN STATE in Charlotte (ESPNU, 7:30 p.m.)

Pirates respectable 9-5 as dog since early 2019 for Mike Houston, who has also covered 11 of last 17 on board.
App just 2-7-1 as reg season chalk last year before beating UNT in bowl game.
Mounties have failed to cover last four as reg-season chalk vs. FBS foes.

Tech Edge: ECU, based on recent trends.

BOWLING GREEN at TENNESSEE (SEC, 8:00 p.m.)

Heupel debut at UT. Heupel only 4-10 last 14 on line at UCF, and Vols enter on 3-8 spread skid.
BGSU awful 4-13 vs. line the past two seasons, and 0-9 vs. line away from Doyt Perry Stadium!

Tech Edge: Tennessee, based on team trends.

OHIO STATE at MINNESOTA (FOX, 8:00 p.m.)

Buckeyes 6-1 vs. line as Big 10 visitor since 2019 for Ryan Day.
Perhaps worth noting that Urban Meyer didn’t cover in his three chances vs. Gophers (last meeting 2018).
Fleck ended up covering last three and four of last five after slow start in 2020 and was 4-1 vs. spread as Big Ten host in last full season of 2019.

Tech Edge: Slight to Ohio State, based on team trends.

Friday, Sep. 3

NORTH CAROLINA at VIRGINIA TECH (ESPN, 6:00 p.m.)

Mack Brown has won and covered his openers the past two seasons, though he was only 2-3 as ACC road chalk last season.
Road team has covered last three in this series.
VT on 13-20 spread skid since mid 2018, Fuente was 0-2 last season as dog but 4-0 in role previous 2019.

Tech Edge: Slight to UNC, based on team and series trends.

OLD DOMINION at WAKE FOREST (ACCN, 7:00 p.m.)

Rahne debut for ODU. Monarchs return to action for first time since 2019, when last seen ODU was 1-11 SU and 4-8 vs. line for Bobby Wilder in 2019.
Monarchs 9-17 last 26 on board since mid 2018.
Wake was 4-0 vs. line at home last season, and has covered last 7 and 9 of last 10 at Winston-Salem.

Tech Edge: Wake Forest, based on team trends.

DUKE at CHARLOTTE (CBSSN, 7:00 p.m.)

Duke got Charlotte 53-19 in one of Blue Devils’ few wins and covers last season.

Cutcliffe only 8-13-2 vs. line since 2019. Cutcliffe has however covered 11-1 last 12 vs. non-ACC, BCS-level foes!
49ers closed last season dropping last three vs. spread, and 1-3 vs. line last four vs. Power 5 foes.

Tech Edge: Duke, based on team trends.

MICHIGAN STATE at NORTHWESTERN (ESPN, 9:00 p.m.)

Mel Tucker teams at Colorado & MSU are 6-11 their last 17 on board since early 2019. Though Tucker did score upset over NU a season ago.
Spartans are 3-12 last 15 vs. spread in reg season games dating to Dantonio in 2019.
Pat Fitz recovered to 7-2 SU and 8-1 vs. line a a year ago, and Cats unbeaten last seven vs. line (5-0-2) at Evanston.

Tech Edge: Northwestern, based on team trends.

Saturday, Sep. 4

WESTERN MICHIGAN at MICHIGAN (ESPN, 12:00 p.m.)

Harbaugh enters 2021 on 1-7 spread skid also 2-9 vs. points last 11 vs. non-Big Ten foes.
Harbaugh also 1-6 last 7 laying 20 or more, though just before that stretch he did beat WMU 49-3 in 2019.
Note Broncos no covers last six vs. Power 5 foes (including BYU).

Tech Edge: Slight to WMU, based on team trends.

ARMY at GEORGIA STATE (ESPNU, 12:00 p.m.)

GSU closed last season fast with wins and covers in last four en route to 7-3 spread mark.
Panthers 6-3 vs. line last nine as host, including 28-21 win vs Army in 2019 at Atlanta.
Army just 1-4 vs. spread last 5 as visitor.

Tech Edge: Slight to GSU, based on team trends.

STANFORD vs. KANSAS STATE in Arlington, Texas (FS1, 12:00 p.m.)

David Shaw was on a 3-13 spread skid prior to winning and covering last three a year ago.
Cardinal 3-8 vs. line last 11 away from Farm though as mentioned won and covered last three away in 2020.
K-State didn’t win outright its last five games a season ago but Klieman is 15-8 vs. spread the past two seasons.
Cats 5-2 vs. spread last seven away from Manhattan in reg season play.

Tech Edge: Kansas State, based on team trends.

LOUISIANA-MONROE at KENTUCKY (SEC, 12:00 p.m.)

Terry Bowden debut at ULM. Warhawks finished the Matt Viator era on a 7-17 spread skid and were 0-10 SU in 2020.
ULM 1-5 vs. line last six vs. non-Sun Belt FBS foes.
Bowden only 10-12 as DD dog his last four years at Akron (2015-18).
After 0-9 home chalk mark in 2018-19, Cats are 6-4 vs. line in role since.
UK had also covered 5 straight vs. non-SEC foes prior to bowl vs. N.C. State last January 2.

Tech Edge: Kentucky, based on ULM woes.

TULANE at OKLAHOMA (ABC, 12:00 p.m.)

Willie Fritz enters 2021 on 17-9 spread uptick with Wave.

Tech Edge: Slight to Tulane, based on team trends.

PENN STATE at WISCONSIN (FOX, 12:00 p.m.)

Tale of two seasons for Nittany Lions last year, as James Franklin 0-5 SU and vs. line first five before winning and covering final four in 2020.
Franklin has covered 8 of last 11 away from Happy Valley, and was 7-2 last nine as dog entering 2020 when 0-2 in role.
Badgers enter 2021 just 1-4 vs. spread last five at Madison, and Paul Chryst just 12-15 vs. points last 27 on board.

Tech Edge: Penn State, based on team trends.

RICE at ARKANSAS (SEC+, 2:00 p.m.)

Old SWC rivalry! Bloomgren has covered 6 of his last 8 with Rice since late 2019 (Owls only played five times last season) and has covered 4 of last 5 as dog.
After covering first six a year ago, Arkansas was 0-4 SU and 1-3 vs. line down stretch.
Hogs were never favored last season, 1-3 in role preceding 2019.

Tech Edge: Rice, based on team trends.

FRESNO STATE at OREGON (Pac-12, 2:00 p.m.)

Fresno faded late last season including an inexplicable loss to the Lobos in DeBoer debut season, ending 3-3 SU and vs. line, though opened up Week Zero with romp past UConn.
Tedford was 2-8 vs. line down stretch in preceding 2019, but did cover all four chances vs. Pac-12, however. Tedford was also 9-2-1 as a dog 2017-19, DeBoer 1-1 in role a year ago.
Ducks only 1-4 vs. line down stretch a year ago (W in Pac-12 title win vs. SC), and just 4-6 vs. spread last ten at Autzen Stadium.

Tech Edge: Fresno State, based on extended trends.

WEST VIRGINIA at MARYLAND (ESPN, 3:30 p.m.)

These regional neighbors used to play annually thru 2015, but not since.
Locksley just 3-12 SU and 5-10 vs. line with Terps since early 2019, 2-4 vs. line last six at College Park.
Mounties 7-4 vs. spread last 11 reg season games.

Tech Edge: WVU, based on Maryland negatives.

INDIANA at IOWA (ABC, 3:30 p.m.)

Hoosiers covered all seven reg season games in 2020 before losing bowl game to Ole Miss.
Tom Allen on 17-7 spread run into 2021, also 8-2 last ten as dog.
Kirk Ferentz is 17-9-1 vs. spread at Iowa City since mid 2016.
Hawkeyes also 4-1 vs. line last five openers.

Tech Edge: Slight to Indiana, based on team trends

MIAMI-OHIO at CINCINNATI (ESPN+, 3:30 p.m.)

The oldest non-conference rivalry resumes! Bearcats have won last 14 SU and covered in 10 of those.
Fickell 15-9 vs. line last two seasons though just 10-8 as chalk.
RedHawks 1-11 vs. line last 12 reg season vs. non-AC (though 0-0 LY, Miami only played three games in 2020).

Tech Edge: Cincinnati, based on team and series trends.

MARSHALL at NAVY (CBSSN, 3:30 p.m.)

Huff debut for Herd. Marshall faded after fast start for Doc Holliday last season, dropped last 3 SU after winning outright first seven, also 1-5 last six vs. line in 2020.
Mids tailed off a season ago but were 10-3 vs. line as recently as 2019, and still 8-4 last 12 vs. spread at Annapolis.

Tech Edge: Slight to Navy, based on extended trends.

ALABAMA vs. MIAMI-FL in Atlanta (ABC, 3:30 p.m.)

Prior to the Covid season of 2020, Bama had covered 12 of 13 openers, winning all outright, many of those in neutral-site games like this vs. Miami.
Tide 9-4 vs. line last 13 vs. non-SEC foes.
Diaz only 5-9 last 14 vs. spread with Canes.

Tech Edge: OVER baed on point total trends.

UMASS at PITTSBURGH (ACCN, 4:00 p.m.)

UMass managed a pair of covers for Walt Bell in abbreviated 4-game slate LY, though still not closer than 22 in any of those games with a losing margin of 38 ppg!
Minutemen 2-9-1 vs. spread in 2019, 0-5-1 away.
Pitt just 1-4 laying DDs since 2019 but is 4-1 last five vs. line in reg season vs. non-ACC foes.

Tech Edge: Miami-Ohio based on Akron woes.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN at MISSOURI (SEC, 4:00 p.m.)

McElwain has covered 7 of last 9 on road in reg season play, also 7-4 last 11 as dog with Chips.
McElwain 16-6 overall vs. spread with CMU since 2019.
Mizzou failed to cover last three in a very disjointed 2020 (seven postpones!) but was 4-1 vs. spread at Columbia in Drinkwitz debut season.

Tech Edge: UTEP based on team trends.

LOUISIANA TECH at MISSISSIPPI STATE (ESPNU, 4:00 p.m.)

Note Leach’s second year at WSU in 2013, Cougs posted 9-4 spread mark. Now Leach in second year at MSU after covering 4 of last 5 down stretch a year ago.
Though Bulldogs only 1-2 as chalk in 2020 after Leach was 3-6 laying points in 2019 with WSU, which was also just 4-9 vs. line two years ago.
Leach now 9-17 last 26 vs. spread.
Skip Holtz just 2-4 as dog LY but was 19-8 in role previous six seasons.

Tech Edge: La Tech, based on team trends.

LOUISIANA at TEXAS (FOX, 4:30 p.m.)

Sarkisian debut for Horns. Under Herman, Texas was 3-7-1 its last 11 as Austin chalk, and 2-8-1 last 11 overall as host.
Cajuns have covered seven straight in reg season vs. non-Belt foes. Napier 9-4-1 as dog since 2018.

Tech Edge: UL-Lafayette, based on team trends.

SAN JOSE STATE at SOUTHERN CAL (Pac-12, 5:00 p.m.)

Spartans were 5-0-1 vs. line before bowl loss last season, and after Week Zero win over Southern Utah now 15-5-1 vs. spread for Brent Brennan since late 2018.
SJSU has also covered last 8 as dog and covered last 3 vs. Power 5 foes.
Trojans just 8-14 last 22 as chalk.

Tech Edge: San Jose State, based on team trends.

OREGON STATE at PURDUE (FS1, 7:00 p.m.)

First trip to Purdue for Beavers since 1967 when the Giant Killers shocked No. 2 Boilermakers, 22-14.
OSU 12-4 last 16 as dog for Jonathan Smith, 13-6 overall vs. spread since 2019.
Purdue dropped last five vs. spread last season, and Brohm 1-8 last 9 as Ross-Ade chalk.

Tech Edge: OSU, based on team trends

TEXAS TECH vs. HOUSTON at NRG Stadium (ESPN, 7:00 p.m.)

Holgorsen just 7-12 SU, 9-11 vs. line with UH since 2019, also dropped last five as a dog.
Red Raiders, however, just 3-7 their last 10 vs. line away from Lubbock.

Tech Edge: Slight to Texas Tech, based on team trends.

BAYLOR at TEXAS STATE (ESPN+, 7:00 p.m.)

Baylor only 2-7 SU and 3-5-1 vs. line for Aranda in his difficult debut season, Bears 1-2 as chalk.
Not wanting to use the Rhule era numbers too much with Bears, though note they were unblemished vs. line (3-0-1) in their last four road games in 2020, never a favorite in that span.
TSU has displayed a bit of spark lately vs. line (9-5 last 14 since late in 2019) for Spavital.

Tech Edge: Slight to Texas State, based on recent trends.

SYRACUSE at OHIO (CBSSN, 7:30 p.m.)

Dino Babers actually covered 6 of 11 last season though Orange just 1-10 SU, and 0-5 SU away and all losses by DD margins.
Solich only played three games in 2020, though note Bobcats have covered only 1 of last 8 in Athens.
But Ohio is 17-5 SU at Peden Stadium since 2018 and 7-3 vs. line last 10 against non-MAC BCS opposition.

Tech Edge: Ohio, based on team trends.

AKRON at AUBURN (SEC+, 7:00 p.m.)

Harsin Auburn debut (at least we think he’ll be on sidelines).
Zips 3-16 vs. spread since 2019 for Arth.
Under Malzahn, Auburn was 12-18-1 as home chalk 2015-20 but 6-2 in role past two seasons.
Harsin did cover last seven as blue carpet chalk with Boise after struggling prior in role.

Tech Edge: Auburn, based on team trends.

UTSA at ILLINOIS (BTN, 7:30 p.m.)

Bielema gets a win for Illini in Week Zero opener vs. Huskers.
Roadrunners were improved for Traylor LY and were 4-2 vs. line away as well as 5-2 as dog.
UTSA 10-3 last 13 as dog since mid 2019, also 12-6 last 18 on board since mid 2019. Though rare games vs. a Power 5 foe lately (1-0 in role LY if counting BYU).
Illini never favored last season, was 4-4 last 8 as chalk in the Lovie Smith era.

Tech Edge: UTSA, based on team trends.

FLORIDA ATLANTIC at FLORIDA (SEC, 7:30 p.m.)

Prior to last season,Gators were 7-1 vs. line in reg-season play against non-SEC foes during 2018-19 with Dan Mullen.
Mullen was 8-2 laying DDs in 2018-19 though 3-4-1 in role last season.
Taggart’s FAU failed to covered last four games a year ago in his maiden run with Owls, and Taggart teams at FSU and FAU are 11-19 vs. line since 2018.

Tech Edge: Florida, based on team trends.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS at GEORGIA TECH (ACCN, 7:30 p.m.)

NIU was winless (0-6) SU a year ago and now 5-13 SU for Hammock, though Huskies did cover 2 of 3 away in truncated 2020 MAC slate.
NIU is 4-2 as a DD dog since Hammock took over in 2019.
Collins only 7-13-1 vs. line with GT the past two seasons, and 0-3 in rare chalk role. Also 4-9 vs. points in Atlanta and 0-45 vs. line against non-ACC.

Tech Edge: NIU, based on team trends.

GEORGIA vs. CLEMSON in Charlotte (ABC, 7:30 p.m.)

Dabo not especially great in openers (3-4 vs. line last seven), though is 15-4 vs. line in “featured” games (either ACC title, playoff or bowl) since 2012, and this seems to qualify within that definition.
Dabo 32-19-1 as chalk since 2017.
After 6-1 spread mark away from Athens in 2019, Georgia 2-4 in role a year ago.
In rare dog roles, Bulldogs 0-2 past two seasons, but had been 3-0 getting points in 2017-18.

Tech Edge: Clemson, based on team trends.

SOUTHERN MISS at SOUTH ALABAMA (ESPN+, 8:00 p.m.)

Will Hall debut at USM, Kane Wommack debut at USA. This is the game that preceded Jay Hopson’s abrupt resignation at USM last September!
Golden Eagles closed with three spread covers in a row at end of 2020 after dropping 6 of first 7 vs. line (and 1-9 spread skid since late 2019).
USA covered only 1 of last 6 in 2020 preceding Steve Campbell’s ouster.

Tech Edge: Slight to USM, based on recent trends.

KENT STATE at TEXAS A&M (ESPNU, 8:00 p.m.)

Jimbo was just 1-4 laying DDs in regular season a year ago after 4-2 mark in role previous 2019. But he is 12-4 as Kyle Field chalk since 2018.
Golden Flashes are 11-6 vs. spread their last 17 for Sean Lewis, and 8-3 last 11 as dog.
Kent State 3-2 vs. spread vs. Power 5 for Lewis.

Tech Edge: Slight to A&M, based on team trends.

LSU at UCLA (FOX, 8:30 p.m.)

Prior to romp past Hawaii in Week Zero, Chip Kelly team sentered 2021 just 18-44 SU and 25-37 vs. the line since 2015 in the NFL (Eagles and 49ers) and college (UCLA).
Prior to Hawaii win, Bruins were 0-6 SU vs. non-Pac 12 foes under Kelly.
Bruins were 3-1 as a dog in abbreviated 2017 slate, but 3-7 previous 10 getting points.
LSU closed 2020 covering 4 of last 5 after bumpy start. Tigers covered 7 of 8 away from Baton Rouge in dreamy 2019 slate but careful not to factor that too much into present.

Tech Edge: Slight to LSU, based on team trends.

BYU vs. ARIZONA in Las Vegas (ESPN, 10:30 p.m.)

BYU covered 8 of 11 last season with Zach Wilson at controls though remember Sitake was in a bit of hot water entering last season, and was just 4-9 vs. points in 2019.
Fisch debut for UA. Cats really faded last year for Sumlin, 0-5 SU in abbreviated Pac-12 slate and no covers last four.
UA enters 2021 on a 2-10 spread skid.

Tech Edge: BYU, based on team trends.

NEVADA at CALIFORNIA (FS1, 10:30 p.m.)

Wolf Pack now 5-1 last six as dog since late in 2019 season for Jay Norvell, also 9-5 overall last 14 on board.
Nevada 4-2 vs. spread last six vs. non-MWC foes.
Cal had a disrupted 2020 though did manage covers in 2 of 4 games, Bears were just 1-5 vs. spread in Berkeley the preceding 2019 and just 2-4 as chalk, now 2-6 last 8 laying points.

Tech Edge: Nevada, based on team trends.

NEW MEXICO STATE at SAN DIEGO STATE in Carson, California (ESPN, 7 p.m.)

Counting last Saturday’s loss to UTEP, NMSU now 8-17 vs. spread since rousing win in the 2017 Arizona Bowl (NMSU did not play in 2020), also now 2-11 last 13 as a DD dog.
Aztecs were 3-1 SU and vs. line in temporary Carson home last season, 4-2 as chalk for Brady Hoke in his second go-around at SDSU.

Tech Edge: SDSU, based on team trends.

UTAH STATE at WASHINGTON STATE (Pac-12, 11:00 p.m.)

Blake Anderson debut for Utags. Things really unraveled for Utags LY after Gary Andersen dismissed, just 1-5 SU and vs. line, and enter 2021 on 5-11 spread skid., also 2-8 last 10 as dog.
Blake Anderson’s Ark State teams 6-6 vs. lien away the past two seasons though 5-3 as dog.
Awkward debut for Rolovich LY at Wazzu, 1-3 SU and vs. line in truncated slate, Cougs lost and failed to cover last three.
Since late 2018 and the end of Mike Leach era, WSU is 5-14 vs. spread.

Tech Edge: Slight to USU, based on team trends.

Sunday, Sep. 5

NOTRE DAME at FLORIDA STATE (ABC, 7:30 p.m.)

Irish are 8-3 vs. spread away from South Bend the past two seasons, 2-0 SU vs. FSU and 1-1 vs. line against Noles the past two seasons.
FSU enters 2021 on 3-9 spread skid and has failed to cover last four openers.

Tech Edge: Notre Dame, based on team trends.

Monday, Sep. 6

LOUISVILLE vs. OLE MISS in Atlanta (ESPN, 8:00 p.m.)

Cards did a bit of a backslide last season (4-7 SU and 5-5 vs. line) after encouraging debut for Satterfield in 2019.
‘Ville 2-4 as dog in 2020 after 4-1 non-ACC spread mark in 2020.
Lane Kiffin was 2-3 as chalk last season in 505 SU and spread overall performance in debut with Rebs, and his teams are 9-6 as chalk since 2019 (FAU & Rebs)

Tech Edge: Slight to Ole Miss, based on recent trends.

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