Tech Trends – Week 9

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

20 minute read

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Week 9 of the College Football season kicks off on Thursday, October 28 and concludes on Saturday, October 30.

We've identified betting trends and angles for key matchups between FBS squads.

We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)

Thursday, Oct. 28

TROY at COASTAL CAROLINA (ESPN2, 7:30 p.m.)

• Trojans no covers last 4 TY, and 1-5 last six vs. line in 2021.
• Chants 8-0-1 vs. line last nine at Conway and 12-5-1 vs. line since last season, though lost last week vs. App State.

Tech Edge: Coastal, based on team trends.

SOUTH FLORIDA at EAST CAROLINA (ESPN, 7:30 p.m.)

• Though off of impressive win over Temple, Bulls just 3-13 SU for Jeff Scott since LY (note a better 9-7 mark vs. line).
• USF also 7-4 last 11 as dog though failed to win or cover in rare chalk role vs. ECU in 2020.
• Pirates on 5-2 spread uptick.

Tech Edge: Slight to USF, based on team trends.

Friday, Oct. 29

NAVY at TULSA (ESPN2, 7:30 p.m.)

• Mids had won and covered four straight in this series until last year.
• Visiting dog had been a very good role for Niumatalolo (21-10 from 2009-18) before 2-4 mark in role since.
• Meanwhile, Golden Hurricane just 5-8 vs. spread as host since 2019.

Tech Edge: Navy, based on extended team and series trends.

UNLV at NEVADA (CBSSN, 10:00 p.m.)

• Rebs have actually won 2 of last 3 at Reno, had not won previously at Mackay Stadium since 2003.
• But Wolf Pack on 8-2 spread run last ten as host, 13-3 SU in Fremont Cannon battle since 2005.
• UNLV has covered last 4 away though they haven’t won SU now 13 in a row after SJSU loss; last outright win was Nov. 30, 2019 at Nevada.

Tech Edge: Slight to Nevada, based on team and extended series trends.

Saturday, Oct. 30

TEXAS STATE at LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE (ESPNU, 12:00 p.m.)

• Bobcats 8-3 last ten as dog, also “over” 7-3 last ten since late 2020.
• Cajuns just 7-14 vs. spread last 21 after Ark State scare. Also “under” 13-4 last 17.

Tech Edge: Texas State, based on team trends.

CINCINNATI at TULANE (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m.)

• Even after falling short vs. line against Navy last week at Annapolis, Bearcats still on 6-2 spread uptick since late 2020
• UC also covered 7 of last 9 away from Nippert Stadium.
• Wave really faltering, no wins or covers last five TY after SMU Thursday loss, longest in-season spread losing streak since 2001 (Tulane did have an 0-6-1 spread run in 2005).

Tech Edge: Cincy, based on team trends.

UCF at TEMPLE (ESPN+, 12:00 p.m.)

• After just 1-5 vs. line out of chute, Malzahn got needed win and cover last Fri vs. Memphis, though Knights no covers last four or six of last seven as visitor.
• Owls 1-5 vs. spread last six at Linc, and have dropped 3 of last 4 vs. line in series.

Tech Edge: Slight to UCF, based on Temple negatives.

TEXAS at BAYLOR (ABC, 12:00 p.m.)

• The Tom Herman Horns were 0-2-1 vs. line the past three years vs. Bears, and the Sark Horns are just 1-2 vs. line away from Austin.
• Though Texas has won 5 of last 6 outright in series.
• Baylor 4-0 SU and vs. line at Waco for Aranda, inclined to dismiss most Bears numbers from last season.

Tech Edge: Slight to Texas, based on Horns' SU success in series.

UMASS at LIBERTY (ESPN3, 12:00 p.m.)

• Even after two straight flat efforts and a loss Oct. 16 to ULM, Hugh Freeze still 16-5 vs. spread last 21 with Flames and has won and covered big vs. Minutemen past two years by 108-21 combined score.
• Freeze has covered last 6 at Lynchburg in reg season as well.

Tech Edge: Liberty, based on team trends.

MICHIGAN at MICHIGAN STATE (FOX, 12:00 p.m.)

• Though Harbaugh has won and covered 2 of last 3 meetings, Spartans have often tormented Wolverines, and did score big upset at Ann Arbor as a 21.5 dog last year for Tucker.
• MSU 11-2 vs. line last 13 meetings, almost all of that Dantonio’s doing.
• Harbaugh has covered 6 of 7 this season but entering 2021 had dropped 7 of previous 8 spread decisions.

Tech Edge: MSU, based on extended trends.

IOWA at WISCONSIN (ESPN, 12:00 p.m.)

• Hawkeyes have covered last 2 meetings including 28-7 win at home LY, and Ferentz has won and covered last five on Big Ten road.
• Badgers just 1-6 vs. spread last 7 at Camp Randall.

Tech Edge: Iowa, based on team trends.

INDIANA at MARYLAND (BTN, 12:00 p.m.)

• Tough go for Hoosiers, who didn’t lose vs. line in 2020 reg season (7-1 vs. pts, loss in bowl vs Ole Miss) but can’t seem to cover in 2021 (1-6 vs. line), and licking wounds after heavy loss to Buckeyes last week.
• Note that IU has won last three SU in series though host side has covered last three meetings.
• Terps 4-12 vs. line last 16 Big Ten games.

Tech Edge: Slight to IU, based on extended trends.

RUTGERS at ILLINOIS (BTN, 12:00 p.m.)

• Schiano has cooled after slow start, no SU wins last 4 or covers last three.
• Scarlet Knights were once 4-0 vs. line this season.
• Bielema trend to note has been “under” this season (7-1 first eight).
• Illini also 3-1-1 last five vs. line after Penn State upset.
• Lovie won and covered last three years vs. ‘Gers.

Tech Edge: Slight to “under,” based on “totals” trends.

MIAMI-FL at PITTSBURGH (ACCN, 12:00 p.m.)

• Only second road game for Canes, which makes their slow start even more appalling, but Miami has actually covered last three as visitor.
• Panthers just 1-4-1 vs. spread last six at Heinz Field vs. FBS non-UMass teams.
• Pitt also “over” 13-4 since last season.

Tech Edge: “Over” and Miami, based on “totals” and team trends.

VIRGINIA TECH at GEORGIA TECH (RSN, 12:00 p.m.)

• Teams didn’t play LY, after VT won big 45-0 in Collins’ debut year for GT in 2019.
• Paul Johnson GT teams had won and covered three straight vs. Hokies from 2016-18.
• Fuente 1-7 vs. points last 8 as visitor, and note this is just second VT road game of 2021.
• GT 5-4 vs. spread last nine as host (counts UNC game at Mercedes Benz).

Tech Edge: GT, based on recent trends.

BOWLING GREEN at BUFFALO (CBSSN, 12:00 p.m.)

• Falcs were an early-season a spread revelation this season with 6-1 mark vs. number their first seven after entering 2021 on a 15-39 spread skid, though it all came crashing back to Earth last week in the heavy loss to EMU.
• Linguist presiding over a downgrade with Bulls, now 3-4 vs. spread after Leipold’s 30-14-2 mark vs. number past four years, the Bulls did blast Akron last week.
• One of BGSU's rare pre-2021 covers came against Buffalo a year ago.

Tech Edge: Slight to BGSU, based on recent trends.

IOWA STATE at WEST VIRGINIA (ESPN+, 1:00 p.m.)

• Cyclones have covered 5 of last 7 away from Ames, also heavy wins and covers last three in this series.
• Mounties are 4-1-1 vs. spread last 6 at home, however.

Tech Edge: ISU, based on recent series trends.

NORTH TEXAS at RICE (ESPN+, 2:00 p.m.)

• Not-so-Mean Green on 11-23 spread skid since mid 2018, though 4-3 vs. line this season.
• Owls have covered 2 of last 3 in series, and Bloomgren 5-2 vs. spread last 7 as C-USA host.

Tech Edge: Rice, based on team trends.

FLORIDA vs. GEORGIA in Jacksonville, Florida (CBS, 3:30 p.m.)

• Dan Mullen got Kirby Smart 44-28 LY in what is the last Bulldogs SU defeat.
• Georgia had won and covered the previous three meetings.
• Mullen on 4-8-1 spread skid since midway in 2020, also no covers last four away from the Swamp, but is 3-1 last four as dog.
• Bulldogs 5-2 vs. line this season.

Tech Edge: Slight to Georgia, based on recent trends.

LOUISIANA TECH at OLD DOMINION (CBSSN, 3:30 p.m.)

• Skip Holtz has had good road dog marks over the years at La Tech (19-8 from 2014-19; 3-0 TY), also 9-5 as road chalk since 2016.

Tech Edge: La Tech, based on team trends.

HAWAII at UTAH STATE (Spectrum, 3:00 p.m.)

• Bows 1-4 vs. spread last five on MW road. Graham, only 5-5 as a dog for UH since LY, but also “under” 8-3 last eleven.
• Utags now “under” four straight after CSU game.

Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.

MISSOURI at VANDERBILT (SECN, 3:00 p.m.)

• Tigers spread skid now at 10 games (0-7 in 2021!). But Vandy no covers last six in Nashville. What to do?
• Last Mizzou cover was 41-0 win over Dores last November preceded this 10-game spread slump.
• But, here we go...Tigers are “over” 8-2 last ten! There's the answer!

Tech Edge: “Over,” based on Mizzou “totals” trends.

WASHINGTON STATE at ARIZONA STATE (FS1, 3:00 p.m.)

• Cougs have now covered 5 in a row this season, the latest a week ago vs. BYU after the Nick Rolovich ouster.
• Herm 2-2 vs. line at Tempe TY but had failed to cover 8 straight as home chalk prior to recent wins over Colorado and Stanford.

Tech Edge: WSU, based on recent trends.

COLORADO at OREGON (FOX, 3:30 p.m.)

• After opening 4-0 SU and vs. line with Buffs, Dorrell just 2-7 SU and vs. spread since.
• Webfoots however have only covered twice this season (at Ohio State; 2-5 vs. line), now just 5-9 vs. points since 2020.
• UO also 1-6 vs. spread last seven at Eugene.

Tech Edge: Slight to Colorado, based on team trends.

UL-MONROE at APPALACHIAN STATE (ESPN+, 3:30 p.m.)

• Terry Bowden working on back-to-back upsets as a DD dog vs. both Liberty and USA, as he’s now covered 4 of last 6 this season.
• The Warhawks draw clear from the end of the preceding Matt Viator era (which closed on a 7-17 spread skid).
• App failed to cover vs. Viator LY, however, and had dropped 4 in a row vs. line at Boone before Coastal Carolina upset.
• Mounties 4-8 last 12 as chalk.

Tech Edge: ULM, based on recent trends.

TEXAS TECH at OKLAHOMA (ABC, 3:30 p.m.)

• Red Raiders 5-6 last 11 as dog, though HC Matt Wells is now out.
• TT also crushed by Lincoln Riley past two seasons, when Sooners scored 117 combined points.
• OU has actually scored 346 points the last six games vs. TT!
• Home team has covered 7 of last 8 meetings. Also ten straight “overs” in series!
• Sooners however just 1-3 vs. line at Norman against FBS foes this season.

Tech Edge: Oklahoma and “over,” based on series and “totals” trends.

TCU at KANSAS STATE (ESPNU, 3:30 p.m.)

• Patterson 5-2 vs. spread last seven away, though K-State has won last two meetings and covered last three (all tight, decided by 15 points total).
• Cats 2-3 vs. spread last five at Manhattan, also on 6-3 “over” run.

Tech Edge: Slight to TCU and “over,” based on recent and “totals” trends.

PURDUE at NEBRASKA (ESPN2, 3:30 p.m.)

• The trend to note with Boilermakers in 2021 has been “under” which was 6-0 before narrow "over" last week vs. Wiscy.
• Purdue 5-2 vs. line last seven series meetings.
• Huskers were working on five straight covers before the past two weeks, Michigan (many got a push) and Minnesota (loss).

Tech Edge: -“Under,” based on Purdue “totals” trends.

MINNESOTA at NORTHWESTERN (BTN, 3:30 p.m.)

• Teams didn’t meet last season, though Cats have not lost vs. spread last three (2-0-1) and only once last five (3-1-1) meetings.
• Pat Fitz 4-2-1 last seven as dog.
• Fleck 1-2 last three, 2-3 last five as chalk, though has covered last 4 on Big Ten road.

Tech Edge: Slight to NU, based on extended series trends.

BOSTON COLLEGE at SYRACUSE (RSN, 3:30 p.m.)

• Teams have split last 8 meetings SU in this series that stretches to the old Big Eat.
• Babers 7-1 vs. line in 2021 but only 1-0 as chalk.
• Eagles no covers last two or wins last three in 2021.

Tech Edge: Slight to ‘Cuse, based on recent trends.

FLORIDA STATE at CLEMSON (ESPN, 3:30 p.m.)

• Once a fierce and important rivalry! Teams didn’t meet LY.
• Noles only 5-10 vs. line for Norvell, 4-5 as dog.
• FSU lost and failed to cover last three meetings vs. better Tigers teams, last series win in 2014.
• But Dabo no covers first seven in 2021, on 0-8 spread run since Sugar Bowl.
• Clemson also “under” 6-1 in 2021, only “over” needed OT at NC State on Sept. 25.

Tech Edge: “Under” and FSU, based on recent “totals” and team trends.

SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI at MIDDLE TENNESSEE (ESPN+, 3:30 p.m.)

• Golden Eagles 0-6 vs. line vs. FBS foes for Will Hall, also “under” 6-1 in 2021 (counts Grambling game).
• Note the home team was 6-0 SU and vs. line in MTSU games TY (Stockstill 2-0 as host) before last week's Blue Raiders win at UConn, which we're not sure should count.
• MTSU also "under" 5-3 last 8.

Tech Edge: MTSU and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

FIU at MARSHALL (ESPN+, 3:30 p.m.)

• Butch Davis just 8-17 vs. spread since 2019, 3-7 last ten as visitor, 5-9 last 14 as dog...and those numbers include the late backdoor cover vs. WKU last week.
• Panthers also “over” 7-2 last nine.
• Herd however no covers last four hosting FBS foes.

Tech Edge: Slight to Marshall, based on FIU negatives.

WYOMING at SAN JOSE STATE (FS2, 4:00 p.m.)

• Bohl on 1-7-1 spread skid as visitor.
• After painful pair of home games vs. Fresno and New Mexico, with a combined 17 points in each, Wyo 17-9 “under” since 2019.
• After UNLV win, SJSU has now covered two straight after four Ls in a row.
• Remember, LY Spartans were unbeaten SU (6-0) and vs. line (5-0-1) in MW.
• Spartans “under” 11-3 since last season as well.

Tech Edge: “Under” and SJSU, based on “totals” and team trends.

DUKE at WAKE FOREST (ACCN, 4:00 p.m.)

• Deacs have won and covered last two and 3 of last 4 meetings, though didn’t clash a year ago.
• Cutcliffe no covers last six away.
• Wake on 9-1 spread uptick vs. FBS foes at Winston-Salem.

Tech Edge: Wake Forest, based on team trends.

CHARLOTTE at WESTERN KENTUCKY (ESPN+, 4:00 p.m.)

• After FAU loss, Charlotte has covered just 2 of its last six C-USA games.
• WKU hit with late backdoor cover vs. FIU, but at home things have gone fairly well.
• Tops have covered three of last four at Bowling Green, and also "over" 8-2 since late 2020.

Tech Edge: "Over" and slight to WKU, based on "totals" and team trends.

ARKANSAS STATE at SOUTH ALABAMA (ESPN+, 5:00 p.m.)

• Home team is 6-1 vs. line in Ark State games this season (counts Memphis game as a win).
• Blake Anderson previous ASU also lost and failed to cover last two years vs. Jags.
• Home team is also 6-0 vs. line in USA games involving FBS foes this season (Jags 3-0 vs. line vs. FBS in Mobile).

Tech Edge: South Alabama, based on recent team and series trends.

GEORGIA STATE at GEORGIA SOUTHERN (ESPN+, 6:00 p.m.)

• Home team 4-0-1 vs. line last five in series.
• Though G State has won and covered last two as visiting chalk and 5-1 vs. line last six away.
• Panthers “over” 14-5 since late in 2019.

Tech Edge: “Over” and Georgia State, based on team trends.

UTEP at FLORIDA ATLANTIC (ESPN+, 6:00 p.m.)

• Miners’ 6-1 SU start is best since 2005 with Mike Price, and 4-game cover streak is longest since 2014.
• FAU 2-0 vs. line at Boca Raton this season after closing 2020 with four straight spread Ls.
• After Charlotte win, Owls also “under” 12-4 since LY for Taggart.

Tech Edge: “Under” and UTEP, based on “totals” and recent trends.

ARIZONA at USC (ESPNU, 7:00 p.m.)

• Cats SU losing streak now at 19 games after U-Dub loss, though UA was an easy cover in that game.
• 'Zona's Fisch 3-4 vs. line TY.
• Trojans no covers first three at Coliseum, near carbon-copy losses to Stanford, OSU, and Utah.
• SC no covers last 4 or 5 of last 6 at Coliseum, and UA covered last year’s game at Tucson.

Tech Edge: Slight to UA, based on recent trends.

BOISE STATE at COLORADO STATE (CBSSN, 7:00 p.m.)

• Interestingly the road team is 6-1 vs. line in Boise games this season (Broncos 3-0 away), though Boise hadn’t been under .500 SU after seven games since 1997.
• Rams botched end of game at USU, which snapped 4-game cover streak for Addazio.

Tech Edge: Slight to CSU. based on recent trends.

KANSAS at OKLAHOMA STATE (FS1, 7:00 p.m.)

• Leipold finally got his first cover of the season for Jayhawks (1-5-1 vs. line) last week vs. OU after after 30-14-2 spread mark past four years at Buffalo.
• Gundy has covered last five in 2021 but just 1-2 as home chalk this season.
• Cowboys 4-0-2 vs. spread last six meetings.

Tech Edge: OSU, based on team and series trends.

MISSISSIPPI at AUBURN (ESPN, 7:00 p.m.)

• “Tuberville Bowl” once upon a time.
• Kiffin lost to Malzahn LY but interestingly the road team has covered the last seven games in this series!

Tech Edge: Ole Miss, based on series road trend.

OREGON STATE at CALIFORNIA (Pac-12, 7:00 p.m.)

• Beavers have won and covered last two meetings.
• OSU 8-1 vs. spread last nine on Pac-12 road.
• If Golden Bears chalk note Wilcox 2-8 last ten laying points in Berkeley; if dog, note he's 3-0 in role this term.

Tech Edge: Oregon State, based on team trends.

SMU at HOUSTON (ESPN2, 7:00 p.m.)

• After Tulane romp on Thursday, Ponies 7-0 SU and 5-2 vs. spread this season. Sonny Dykes also 4-1 last five as dog.
• Teams didn’t play last season as twice their matchup was postponed then cancelled.
• Holgorsen has covered 4 of last 6 TY (SU wins in each) though only 2-4 as home chalk vs. FBS foes since last season (counts Tex Tech game at NRG Stadium as home).

Tech Edge: SMU, based on team trends.

KENTUCKY at MISSISSIPPI STATE (SECN, 7:00 p.m.)

• Cats bruised Bulldogs 24-2 LY at Lexington, though note home team has won and covered last six years in series.
• Stoops however is 6-1 vs. line in 2021, and if dog note 20-11 mark in role since 2016.
• If Leach chalk note his 3-10 mark in role since 2019 (includes the end of his Wazzu regime), MSU also 2-7 vs. spread in Starkville for Leach since LY.

Tech Edge: UK, based on team trends.

NORTH CAROLINA at NOTRE DAME (NBC, 7:30 p.m.)

• Irish won and covered at Chapel Hill by 31-17 count LY, and Mack Brown just 4-4 as dog since return to Tar Heels in 2019.
• UNC also just 2-6 vs. spread last 8 away from Kenan Stadium.
• After USC win, Brian Kelly has covered 4 of last 5 TY, though Irish just 4-6 vs. spread last 10 at South Bend.

Tech Edge: Slight to Notre Dame, based on team trends.

PENN STATE at OHIO STATE (ABC, 7:30 p.m.)

• James Franklin no covers 2 of last 3 this season after that 7-game spread win streak, also 1-3 since last season as dog (though 7-2 prior in role 2016-19).
• Franklin has also covered 4 of last 5 vs. Buckeyes, though did fail a year ago in empty Happy Valley.
• OSU thumping wins and covers last four in 2021, though just 3-5 vs. spread last eight in Big Horseshoe.

Tech Edge: Slight to Penn State, based on team and extended series trends.

LOUISVILLE at N.C. STATE (ACCN, 7:30 p.m.)

• Cards have covered 4 of their last 5 as dog, but Wolfpack is 7-2 vs. spread last 9 at Raleigh.
• Some big scorelines in series thru last meeting in 2018.

Tech Edge: Slight to NCS, based on recent home mark.

FRESNO STATE at SAN DIEGO STATE (CBSSN, 10:30 p.m.)

• Bulldogs 3-1 vs. line away TY, 5-3 under DeBoer since LY.
• Aztecs 7-1 SU, 6-2 vs. spread in temporary Carson home since LY.

Tech Edge: Slight to SDSU, based on team trends.

UCLA at UTAH (ESPN, 10:00 p.m.)

• First meeting since 2019 when Utes ran up a 49-3 scoreline in SLC.
• Chip also lost 41-10 to Utah in 2018, and last three meetings the combined score is 138-30 Utes.
• Utah four straight series wins and covers, last Bruins win in 2015.
• But Chip is 3-0 SU and vs. line on road in 2021, and Utes just 2-4 vs. line last six at Rice-Eccles

Tech Edge: Slight to UCLA, based on recent trends.

VIRGINIA at BYU (ESPNU, 10:15 p.m.)

• Mendenhall back at BYU! Wahoos on 11-3 spread run since mid 2020, also “under” 6-2 in 2021 after 7-3 “over” in 2020.
• Cougs no covers last 3 or 4 of last 5 TY, also “under” 6-2 in 2021.

Tech Edge: Virginia and “under,” based on recent and “totals” trends.

WASHINGTON at STANFORD (FS1, 10:30 p.m.)

• Jimmy Lake now 2-9 vs. spread with Huskies (1-6 TYU) after latest non-cover at Arizona, also 0-3 vs. line away.
• Tree upset Huskies in Seattle LY, though in case Stanford gets points here, note David Shaw just 2-4 in once-profitable dog role TY.
• Shaw however has covered four straight vs. U-Dub, all as dog, winning three of those outright.
• Huskies also “under” 6-1 this season.

Tech Edge: Stanford and slight to “under,” based on series, team, and “totals” trends.

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