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NCAAF

Nov 04, 2021

College Football Week 10 Money Moves

The betting public appears to be fired up for the idea that there are still six undefeated teams while witnessing the first College Football Playoff Rankings being released. Everyone has an opinion on Cincinnati getting screwed in the new rankings, but Joe Public is ever the optimist on betting the undefeated to keep winning.

Another popular angle that I’ve seen forever is that teams in the driver's seat for a playoff berth are bet more because ‘they have to win’ as if the other team won’t be fired up about bringing the upset.

Meanwhile, the sharps are on solid teams in meaningless games with short favorites or underdogs such as Florida State +2.5 at home against NC State. The Las Vegas SuperBook took smart Tennessee money at +3 and +2 at Kentucky and are now pick ‘em. The South Point also had the same betting groups take FSU and Tennessee.

SuperBook VP also said Texas A&M attracted sharp money at -4 for the Aggies home game against Auburn and are now -5. Circa Sports is at -5.5.

South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews also said they took sharp money on Wyoming +4 at home against Colorado State and they’re now +3.5. Keep an eye on the total sitting at 40.5 as wind is expected up to 19 mph which will make passing more difficult.

Station Casinos VP Jason McCormick says their top sharp plays were Miami -10.5 at home against Georgia Tech, Liberty +9.5 at Ole Miss, and Purdue +3 at home vs. Michigan State.

Those are all smart calculated plays by the sharps with no emotion involved as we’ll see with the public plays. We bet our parlays on what will make us most happy with the result.

Of course, we want to win, but betting Hugh Freeze returning to Mississippi behind a dangerous Liberty squad with a playmaking QB like Malik Willis isn’t attractive.

Michigan State is a play a lot of us like because we want to see them stay alive for the Buckeyes and Kenneth Walker III to win the Heisman. We want to believe it’ll happen and bet it to be rewarded for such prognostication, and of course, watch it on TV to be entertained.

No.3 Michigan State is the most bet public this week at Stations, the SuperBook, and Atlantis-Reno and they’re No. 3 at the South Point who have Oregon No. 1. Stations have Oregon No. 3 and the SuperBook has them No. 2

What’s so popular about a Pac-12 team now?

The new CFB rankings have Oregon No. 4 which means they control their own destiny. All they have to do is keep winning this week at Washington, the Washington State at Utah and then close out with Oregon State who they lost to last season. And then they have to win the Pac-12 Championship game. See, the Pac-12 isn’t dead.

Oregon is -6.5 at a bad Washington squad and it's been bet up to -7. The allure with Oregon is because of Washington struggling, but also to ride a possible wave with the Ducks to the playoffs. They have to win, right? While Oregon is 7-1, they’re also 2-6 ATS just like Washington. Washington has stayed under in seven of eight. The total is 51. Washington lost to Montana this season but they also have the No. 1 ranked pass defense allowing just 146 ypg.

Oregon also has a doozy stat of failing to cover the last nine games they were favored.

No. 5 Ohio State is also a popular public parlay side laying -15.5 at Nebraska because the Huskers are 3-6 and also because the Buckeyes have to win and win big to be ready to pass any of the teams in front of them. But the Huskers defense has been a thorn for every team they played this season. A sharp group took +15.5 and +15 with the Huskers.

Then we have No. 9 Wake Forest who is a perfect 8-0 (4-4 ATS) for the first time in school history and they’re getting +2.5 at a disappointing North Carolina. The Demon Deacons story coupled with QB Sam Hartman being almost unstoppable (22TD, 3 INT) and averaging 43 ppg makes it easy to root for them. The ACC has been represented by Clemson for the last six years in the CFB Playoffs.

Yes, great story, put Wake on my parlay please, all they have to do is win. We desire the great story more than a more sound play like Miami laying points against Georgia Tech. We want to be involved and we can’t get to Winston-Salem or Chapel Hill over the weekend, so we put it on the parlay. Same thing.

Jeff Stoneback over at his BetMGM offices at Mandalay Bay says his clientele has been all over Georgia laying -38 against the visiting Missouri Tigers pushing the number to -38.5. The attraction here is two-fold like the Oregon game. They love No. 1 Georgia and want them to stay that way until the dream SEC Championship game is realized with Alabama.

Laying the lumber with undefeated Georgia has been profitable as well with them going 6-2 ATS. Meanwhile, they hate Missouri who has yet to cover a game this season. A perfect 0-8 ATS. Georgia allows only 6.6 ppg this season.

Here’s a look at Circa Sports biggest early moves when they posted their numbers on Sunday morning at 11 am, the first numbers posted anywhere:

Central Florida -10 to -13 vs. Tulane

Tennessee +5 to PK at Kentucky

Utah State -16 to -18.5 at New Mexico State

Memphis +7 to +4.5 vs. SMU

UL Monroe +6 to +3.5 at Texas State

UTSA -9 to -12 at UTEP


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