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NCAAF

Nov 06, 2020

Miami vs. N.C. State Predictions, Odds


  • November 6, 2020
  • By Jonathan Willis
  • VegasInsider.com

The No. 11 Miami Hurricanes are still alive in the ACC title hunt. They haven’t looked great since being blown out by the Clemson Tigers last month, but they continue to chalk up wins and are 4-1 in conference play.

Miami is likely to be favored in its last five games of the regular season, including Friday night’s tilt with the North Carolina State Wolfpack.

BETTING RESOURCES

  • Week 10 Matchup: Atlantic Coast Conference
  • Expert Picks: Vegas Insiders
  • Venue: Carter-Finley Stadium
  • Location: Raleigh, North Carolina
  • Date: Friday, November 6, 2020
  • Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN
  • Bet: BetMGM | BetRivers | FanDuel | PointsBet | All

Miami-N.C. State Betting Odds

Line Movements

  • Spread: Miami -10.5
  • Money-Line: Miami -400 N.C. State +330
  • Total: 58.5

Odds Subject to Change

How to Handicap Miami-N.C. State

Dave Doeren has the Wolfpack playing well after a disastrous 2019 campaign. North Carolina State has already matched last year’s win total, and his team has only played conference games to this point.

The Wolfpack have won a nice chunk of change for their backers too, as they have been underdogs in five of their six games. Their biggest win to date came back at the start of October when N.C. State beat Pittsburgh 30-29 as a 14-point underdog.

This offense has been much better than expected, while the defense has surrendered at least 20 points each week. That has led to five of N.C. State’s six games going over the total, and all five of those games saw at least 59 total points.

Miami has come back down to Earth after a strong start to the season. The Hurricanes’ offense blitzed opponents in their first three games, scoring an average of 43.3 PPG in wins over UAB, Louisville, and Florida State. D’Eriq King and the offense haven’t been as effective over Miami’s last three games though, averaging just 22.3 PPG against Clemson, Pittsburgh, and Virginia.

Fortunately, the Hurricanes continue to shine on defense, leading to a 4-2 ATS record for Miami. This defense has held four opponents to less than 20 points.

Betting Analysis – Hurricanes

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • 2020: 5-1 S/U, 4-2 ATS, 3-3 O/U

Landing D’Eriq King as a grad transfer from Houston was huge for Miami. King has brought stability to a position that was in dire need of it, even though he hasn’t been a Heisman Trophy contender as some were expecting. King is completing 61.2 percent of his passes for 7.7 YPA this season, and he is averaging 7.6 YPC once you account for sack yardage.

Miami’s offense is ranked 44th in the nation in SP+. The run game hasn’t been as effective as it was last year with the Hurricanes averaging just 4.3 YPC in 2020. That has led to a lot of the Hurricanes’ struggles over the last month, as Miami has 115 carries for 320 yards (2.8 YPC) over the last three games.

King will have his favorite target back against North Carolina State as tight end Brevin Jordan is ready to return. Jordan suffered a shoulder injury in the loss to Clemson, and he is a match-up nightmare for opposing defenses. Mike Harley had a breakout game against Virginia with 10 receptions for 170 yards and a touchdown two weeks ago.

Manny Diaz is considered one of the best defensive minds in the country. The Hurricanes have a top 20 defense per SP+, and the secondary has been superb.

They are currently allowing 6.2 YPA as Al Blades Jr. and Bubba Bolden are two of the best at their positions in the nation.

Betting Analysis - Wolfpack

  • 2020: 4-2 S/U, 4-2 ATS, 5-1 O/U

Devin Leary was having a great season under center for North Carolina State. He was much more accurate than he was as a freshman, completing 60 percent of his passes for 8.1 YPA with eight touchdowns and two interceptions. Unfortunately, he is likely lost for the year after suffering a broken fibula against Duke.

Enter Bailey Hockman. The transfer from Florida State is now the best option for the Wolfpack. He did not look sharp against Virginia Tech earlier this season, but he was decent against North Carolina last week. Hockman completed 14 of 24 passes for 215 yards with a touchdown and an interception in that game. However, don’t be surprised if Doeren turns to freshman Ben Finley if Hockman struggles early.

There isn’t a great collection of talent at the skill positions. Ricky Person Jr. has not been as good as advertised considering the hype surrounding him out of high school, and leading rusher Zonovan Knight has run for less than 45 yards in three of NC State’s last four games. Emeka Emezie is the leading receiver for the Wolfpack, and he has a 30-yard reception in four straight games coming into Friday night.

N.C. State’s defense ranks 74th in SP+. The secondary has been alright, allowing 7.0 YPA, but the run defense has been subpar. Penn State grad transfer Daniel Joseph leads the Wolfpack with four sacks.

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Historically Speaking

Head-to-Head

These teams haven’t played much since Miami joined the ACC. The Hurricanes and Wolfpack have only squared off five times, and Miami is 3-2 in those games. Miami leads North Carolina State 9-5-1 in the all-time series.

Last Meeting

Miami knocked off NC State 27-13 when these teams last met four years ago. Mark Walton was the star of the game for the Hurricanes, carrying the ball 19 times for 120 yards and three touchdowns.

Ahmmon Richards had nine receptions for 117 yards, and David Njoku had six catches for 72 yards. Miami’s defense was solid too, holding the Wolfpack to 329 total yards and forcing two turnovers.

Notable Betting Trends

-- The over is 5-0 in the last five games where State was an underdog

-- N.C. State has failed to cover in six straight November games

-- The under is 5-0 in Miami’s last five games on Friday night

Miami-N.C. State Predictions

  • Score Prediction: Miami 34, North Carolina State 16
  • Best Bet: Miami -10.5


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