Louisiana Tech vs. North Texas Predictions, Odds

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• December 3, 2020
• By Jonathan Willis
• VegasInsider.com

The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs will be on the field for the first time in over a month this Thursday evening. They have had four straight games either postponed or canceled due to COVID-19, including their game with the North Texas Mean Green that was originally supposed to be played on Nov. 7. We’ll see if the boys from Ruston are a little rusty when they head to Denton to face North Texas on Thursday.

BETTING RESOURCES

• Week 14 Matchup: Conference USA
• Expert Picks: Vegas Insiders
• Venue: Apogee Stadium
• Location: Denton, Texas
• Date: Thursday, Dec. 3, 2020
• Time: 6:00 p.m. ET
• TV: CBSSN
• Bet: BetMGM | BetRivers | FanDuel | PointsBet | All

Louisiana Tech-North Texas Betting Odds

Line Movements

• Spread: LA Tech -1.5
• Money-Line: LA Tech -121 North Texas +100
• Total: 66

Odds Subject to Change

How to Handicap Louisiana Tech-North Texas

Louisiana Tech secured its biggest win of the season in its last game. The Bulldogs rallied from a two-touchdown deficit to beat UAB in overtime on Halloween, picking up the outright win as a +12-point underdog. It was their first cover since a 66-38 victory over Houston Baptist on September 26, as Louisiana Tech had failed to cover in four straight games prior to the victory over the Blazers.

The Mean Green were an offensive juggernaut before they had a month’s worth of games cancelled or postponed by COVID. They didn’t play from mid-October to late November though, and they haven’t been the same on that side of the ball since that point. In their first five games, North Texas scored an average of 39.2 PPG.

The Mean Green were only able to put up 27 points against Rice and 17 points against UTSA. Unsurprisingly, four of their first five games went over the total, but the last two games have fallen short.

Betting Analysis – Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• 2020: 4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS, 4-3 O/U

Skip Holtz has been Mr. Consistent during his time at Louisiana Tech. He has taken the Bulldogs to six straight bowl games, and they have won all six of those postseason appearances. However, the Conference USA title has been elusive for this program.

Louisiana Tech has also used two quarterbacks for much of the season. Senior Luke Anthony has been the prototypical drop-back passer of the two. He is completing 62.5% of his passes for 6.9 YPA with 13 touchdowns and four interceptions.

Sophomore Aaron Allen saw sporadic action in Louisiana Tech’s first six games, but he spurred the comeback win over UAB. He completed 18 of 26 passes for 191 yards and two touchdowns in the game, so he seems likely to get the start this week against North Texas. He is completing almost 70% of his passes, yet he doesn’t have the same accuracy on his deep balls as Anthony.

This ground game has provided no help for either quarterback. The Bulldogs are averaging just 2.4 YPC and 77 YPG, and this offense is averaging under 300 YPC as a whole. Israel Tucker will be the primary ball carrier now that Justin Henderson has announced his departure from the school. Left tackle Donavaughn Campbell and wide receiver Adrian Hardy also told Holtz that they were leaving the team last week.

The Bulldogs haven’t been great on defense, allowing 31.3 PPG and 407.3 YPG. Louisiana Tech hasn’t been able to get off the field on third or fourth down, ranking outside the top 80 in those metrics. This team has just ten sacks on the season, but the Bulldogs do have eight interceptions.

Betting Analysis - North Texas Mean Green

• 2020: 3-4 S/U, 3-4 ATS, 4-3 O/U

North Texas has listed Jason Bean and Austin Aune as co-starters at quarterback headed into the game on Thursday night. Bean hasn’t seen as much time as Aune, but he is more of a dual-threat option. Bean has completed 52.6% of his passes for 8.3 YPA with nine touchdowns and three interceptions. Additionally, he has run for 11.2 YPC and five touchdowns before sack yardage is accounted for, so there’s no denying his explosiveness.

Aune is completing 54.5% of his passes for 8.6 YPA with eight touchdowns and four attempts. He has twice as many pass attempts as Bean, but he is not a mobile threat. That led to Bean getting the start against Rice two weeks ago, but Aune once again took over after Bean was 5-14 for 102 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions against UTSA last week.

The ground game has been superb for the Mean Green this season. Seth Littrell redesigned the offense after Mason Fine’s graduation, and they are running the ball on most plays in 2020. North Texas is in the top 20 in rushing, averaging 5.5 YPC and 228 YPG, led by Deandre Torrey and Oscar Adaway III. Torrey is averaging 6.1 YPC, while Adaway is picking up 7.3 YPC.

Jaelon Darden has been the first, second, and third option in the passing game. Darden has 58 receptions for 882 yards and 12 touchdowns, and First Team All-Conference USA honors are in his future. No other player has more than 20 receptions. Deonte Simpson is the most prolific of the big play threats, averaging 20.3 YPR.

This defense has been one of the worst in the nation. North Texas is allowing 42.7 PPG and 529.7 YPG through seven games. The front seven is dreadful, surrendering 6.0 YPC and 269.8 YPG, while the pass defense isn’t much better at 8.9 YPA. The Mean Green have only recorded five turnovers on the year too.

Historically Speaking

Head-to-Head

North Texas beat Louisiana Tech in the first four games between these schools in the late 1970s. They didn’t play again until they were both members of the Sun Belt, and the Bulldogs won both of those games in 2005 and 2006. The next time they played was in 2013, and Louisiana Tech has won five of seven games with both teams in CUSA.

Last Meeting

The Mean Green had no success moving the ball against the Bulldogs last year. Louisiana Tech held a 45-3 lead with under 10 minutes remaining in the fourth quarter and picked up a 52-17 victory. The Bulldogs had over 540 yards of offense in the dominant victory..

Notable Betting Trends

-- Louisiana Tech has gone UNDER the point total in five of its last six road games.

-- North Texas has failed to cover the spread in 11 of its last 12 games when facing a school with a winning record.

-- Louisiana Tech has covered the spread in five of its last six games when facing North Texas.

Louisiana Tech-North Texas Predictions

• Score Prediction: North Texas 37, Louisiana Tech 31
• Best Bet: North Texas +1.5