North Carolina vs. Miami Predictions, Odds

• December 9, 2020
• By Joe Williams
• VegasInsider.com

The North Carolina Tar Heels (7-3, 6-3) travel to South Florida on Saturday afternoon to battle the Miami Hurricanes (8-1, 7-1) in a key Atlantic Coast Conference matchup.

Neither the Tar Heels or the Hurricanes will be playing in this year's ACC Championship but Miami has an outside chance to earn a spot in a New Year's Six bowl game.

BETTING RESOURCES

• Week 15 Matchup: ACC
• Expert Picks: Vegas Insiders
• Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
• Location: Miami Gardens, Florida
• Date: Saturday, Dec. 12, 2020
• Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
• Bet: BetMGM | BetRivers | FanDuel | PointsBet | All

North Carolina-Miami Tech Betting Odds

Line Movements

• Spread: Miami -3
• Money-Line: MIami -150 North Carolina +130
• Total: 67.5

Odds Subject to Change

Mack Brown and North Carolina will look to close their regular season with a road win against the Hurricanes. (AP)

How To Handicap North Carolina vs. Miami

The Tar Heels head into this one with a win over Western Carolina last week at Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill, bouncing back from a 31-17 setback against Notre Dame in their previous outing. The Tar Heels have won three of their past four games, but they have failed to cover in each of the past three contests.

This is just the second time the Tar Heels have been an underdog this season, as they failed to win or cover in the only previous instance against the Fighting Irish at Kenan on Nov. 27.

On the road, UNC is 2-2 SU/1-3 ATS in their four previous road trips. Their last trip up US 15-501 to Durham resulted in a successful 56-24 win at Wallace Wade, sending the fans home happy to celebrate on Franklin Street with some hot garlic chicken at Wings Over.

Speaking of Duke, the Hurricanes also put a beating on the Blue Devils at Wallace Wade, whipping the Blue Devils 48-0 last time out. After a three-week hiatus due to COVID-19 concerns, the Hurricanes looked anything but rusty. Miami was won five straight since its only loss at Clemson, and they have covered back-to-back outings.

The last time Miami was at home they won 19-14 on Oct. 24 against Virginia, failing to cover a 13.5-point number.

Betting Analysis – North Carolina Tar Heels

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• 2020: 7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS, 5-5 O/U

UNC enters as a three-loss team, but their offense is hardly to blame. They rank fifth in the nation with 534.5 total yards per game, 16th in the country with 315.9 passing yards per outing and 19th overall with 218.6 rushing yards per contest. All of the equates to 41.1 points per game (PPG), which is good for 12th in the land.

Quarterback Sam Howell has registered 3,129 passing yards with 26 touchdowns and six interceptions while completing 68.8 percent of his attempts. UNC also has a nice one-two punch in the backfield, as running back Michael Carter leads the team with 937 yards and 7.1 yards per tote, while scoring seven times. RB Javonte Williams is good for 904 yards on the ground with 6.7 yards per attempt, and he has found the end zone a whopping 16 times.

Wide receiver Dyami Brown has piled up 51 catches for 932 yards and eight touchowns, all of which lead the team, and he has 18.3 yards per reception to show off his big-play ability.

Defensively, Chazz Surratt is disruptive, posting six sacks for the Tar Heels. That side of the ball is definitely not their strong suit, however, as they have allowed 28.6 PPG, while allowing 404.0 total yards per game.

Betting Analysis - Miami, Fl. Hurricanes

• 2020: 8-1 S/U, 6-3 ATS, 4-5 O/U

North Carolina might have a pretty powerful offense, but Miami has certainly been no slouch, either. The Hurricanes rank 26th with 445.4 total yards per game, 31st with 272.4 passing yards per game and 34.9 PPG to check in 23rd. The only area where they don’t match up with UNC might be the run game, although 173.0 rushing yards per game isn’t terrible.

Defensively Miami is much better than its counterparts, as the Canes are allowing just 22.0 PPG to rank 31st, and they have allowed a respectable 366.2 total yards per outing, including just 139.1 rushing yards per contest.

The big man on campus is QB D’Eriq King, as he has run the spread offense well in his first season for Miami. He has passed for 2,331 yards with 20 touchdowns and just four interceptions while also running for 467 yards and four scores.

RB Cam’Ron Harris has 555 yards and eight touchdowns to lead the team in rushing, while Donald Chaney Jr. has racked up 267 yards and three scores as a nice change of pace back. And don’t forget about Jaylan Knighton, who can also bring it when his number is called. The depth of the Miami offense is its best in years.

Historically Speaking

Head-to-Head

Miami owns a narrow 11-10 advantage all-time, and the Hurricanes won the most recent battle in Miami Gardens on Sept. 28, 2018, a 47-10 victory by the Hurricanes.

However, the teams have split the past six head-to-head matchups at Hard Rock Stadium.

Last Meeting - 2019 North Carolina 28-25

The Tar Heels came away with a scintillating 28-25 victory on Sept. 7, 2019 last season at Kenan, winning outright as five-point underdogs as the ‘over’ (45) cashed.

Howell and company fired out to a 17-3 lead after one quarter, but the Canes came back and took a 25-20 lead with 4:38 to play before the Heels scored a touchdown and two-point conversion with 61 seconds left in regulation.

Notable Betting Trends

-- UNC is just 1-4 ATS in the past five as an underdog, and 0-4 ATS in the past four following a straight-up win

-- Miami is 5-2 ATS in the past seven as a favorite, and 7-3 ATS in the previous 10 against teams with a winning overall record

North Carolina-Miami Tech Predictions

• Score Prediction: Miami 38, North Carolina 31
• Best Bet: Miami -3

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