Ohio State vs. Alabama Predictions, Odds

College Football Playoff Video Predictions

• January 11, 2021
• By Brian Edwards
• VegasInsider.com

CFP National Championship Betting Resources

• Bowl Matchup: Big Ten vs. SEC
• Expert Picks: Vegas Insiders
• Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
• Location: Miami Gardens, Florida
• Date: Monday, January 11, 2021
• Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
• Bet: BetMGM | BetRivers | FanDuel | PointsBet | All

CFP National Championship Betting Odds

Line Movements

• Spread: Alabama -8
• Money-Line: Alabama -320 Ohio State +260
• Total: 75
• First-Half: Alabama -5.5, Over-Under 38

Odds Subject to Change

Dating back to 2012, Ohio State has gone 8-2 both SU and ATS in its last 10 games when listed as an underdog. (AP)

How to Handicap Ohio State vs. Alabama

Ohio State produced a spectacular performance at the Sugar Bowl in the College Football Playoff semifinals, avenging last year’s 29-23 semifinal loss to Clemson by spanking the Tigers 49-28 as a seven-point underdog. The 77 combined points elevated ‘over’ the 69-point total.

Despite suffering what appeared to be a serious injury to his ribs on a hit from Clemson senior linebacker James Skalski, Justin Fields played a game for the ages. The former five-star recruit to Georgia made up for his two interceptions in last year’s loss to Clemson – and then some!

Fields connected on 22-of-28 passes for 385 yards and six touchdowns compared to only one interception. He added 42 rushing yards on eight attempts, while senior RB Trey Sermon ran for 193 yards and one TD on 31 workmanlike carries.

Clemson scored on its first two drives to take 7-0 and 14-7 advantages. After the Tigers went up on its first TD drive, Sermon answered with a 32-yard TD scamper. When Clemson took a 14-7 lead, Fields responded by threading the needle into a tight window for an eight-yard TD pass to senior TE Luke Farrell.

That started a run of 28 unanswered points from the Buckeyes, who got three TD passes from Fields in the second quarter to take a commanding 35-14 lead into intermission. Ryan Day’s club threatened to end things early in the third quarter when it penetrated deep into the red zone on its opening possession. However, Fields made his only mistake of the night and was intercepted into the end zone.

When Clemson marched down and scored to trim the deficit to 35-21, it appeared as if the momentum was shifting. But the Buckeyes weren’t going to have any of that on a glorious night in New Orleans. Facing a third-and-10 play from its own nine with 7:01 left in the third quarter, Fields threw a check down to Sermon, who had two defenders between him and the down marker. He blasted between both of them for a first down, and it seemed evident that this wouldn’t be Clemson’s night.

Fields put an exclamation point on that notion several plays later when he found Chris Olvae for a 56-yard TD pass. Trailing 42-21 with 3:54 remaining, the Tigers advanced to OSU’s 40, but Clemson junior QB Trevor Lawrence coughed up a fumble. The Tigers forced Ohio State to punt quickly, though, and they took the ball back with 58 seconds left in the third.

At this point, Dabo Swinney’s team was in desperation mode. He had a QB with a 34-1 record in 35 games who has been a lock to be the No. 1 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft for two years and change. So what does Swinney do? He allows back-to-back running plays to be called to milk away what was left of the third quarter.

Then on fourth-and-one from its own 22, Clemson was flagged for a false start. Then it punted. Two plays later, Fields hit Jameson Williams with a 45-yard TD throw and it was over.

Game. Set. Match.

Day and his staff conducted an absolute clinic. His players executed at an A+ level. In exacting revenge in dominating fashion, the Buckeyes put to bed any chatter that it didn’t belong in the CFP due to their shortened schedule caused by the Big Ten’s delay of the start of the regular season.

I’m not blaming Ohio St. for it because it was a super-sweet victory, but the Buckeyes celebrated and rejoiced after taking it to the Tigers. Meanwhile, earlier that day in Arlington, TX, at the relocated Rose Bowl that was played at Jerry World, Alabama simply cruised into victory lane with an emotionless victory that wreaked of an attitude that this was merely a small bump in the road toward a bigger prize.

Alabama scored TDs on its first three drives en route to a 31-14 win over Notre Dame as a 19-point favorite in the CFP semifinals. However, Ian Book’s one-yard TD run with 56 seconds remaining hooked up supporters of the Fighting Irish with a backdoor cover. The 45 combined points dropped ‘under’ the 65.5-point total.

Bettors who backed Alabama in the first quarter (-7) and the first half (anywhere from -11 to -12 depending on when those wagers were placed) cashed winners. The Crimson Tide went ahead 14-0 on two TD passes from Mac Jones to DeVonta Smith and Jahleel Billingsley.

Notre Dame did mount a clock-consuming drive that resulted in a one-yard TD run from redshirt freshman RB Kylen Williams. The score made it 14-7 with 11:16 remaining until halftime.

Alabama quickly answered, though, as Jones found Smith again for a 34-yard scoring strike and a 21-7 lead with 8:49 remaining. After both teams traded punts, Notre Dame was able to get to Alabama’s 33 with an eight-play drive that went 56 yards. Depending on your line, the Fighting Irish were attempting a 51-yard field goal to either cover for first-half bets or make them a push.

Whatever the case, the field goal missed. Therefore, Alabama covered the number for first-half bets for the eighth time in a row to improve to 10-2 in the first half for the season. The lone non-covers came at home vs. Georgia and at Ole Miss.

Alabama extended its lead to 28-7 on a third TD pass from Jones to Smith, who scored on a first-and-goal play from the seven. After forcing a Notre Dame punt, Alabama kicker Will Reichard made a 41-yard field goal for a 31-7 advantage with 12:45 left.

Jones finished the night with 25 completions on 30 attempts for 297 yards and four TDs without an interception. Najee Harris ran for 125 yards on 15 carries, while Smith had seven catches for 130 yards and three TDs.

For tonight’s game at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, most books had Alabama installed as an 8.5-point favorite as of early Monday morning. There were a few books that had the Crimson Tide at -9 and a few others were at -8. The total was anywhere from 74.5 to 75.5 points, while the Buckeyes were +250 on the money line.

For first-half wagers, most shops had Alabama favored by either five or 5.5 points with a total of 38. The Tide’s team total for the game is all over the place depending on the book. Some spots have Alabama’s team total at 38.5 points with expensive juice in the -145 neighborhood. Other places have the Tide’s team total at 41.5 with just -115 to -120 juice on the ‘over.’

Ohio State’s team total is anywhere from 31.5 to 32.5 at most books with varying odds.

For first-quarter wagers, most shops have Nick Saban’s team favored by 1.5 or 2.5 points with varying odds. There are even a few spots with Alabama -0.5 points but with around -140 juice to the ‘over.’ The total for the first half is 16.5 points.

I was able to play Alabama -4 in the first half at a -120 price last Sunday. That number isn’t available anymore, but I couldn’t turn it down after being on this play every game all season with two exceptions – at Ole Miss and vs. Arkansas. Even at -5 or -5.5, it is the second-smallest first-half spread for ‘Bama this year with only the Georgia game (and non-cover for 1H wagers) having a smaller first-half number.

Betting Analysis – Ohio State Buckeyes

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• 2020: 7-0 SU, 4-3 ATS, 5-1-1 O/U

It doesn’t take a genius to realize that if Ohio State can duplicate its performance vs. Clemson, Alabama is going to be in trouble tonight. But can the Buckeyes match their A+ performance 10 days later? Can they be that sky high emotionally and execute that brilliantly again.

My guess is no for several reasons. Maybe I’m wrong, but I suspect that Fields’s rib injuries are serious. To his credit, he played the game of his life despite clearly being in a lot of pain. If you’ve had rib injuries before, you know they feel a lot worse 10 days later than within hours of sustaining the injuries.

Although I’m sure Fields was given some sort of pain-medicating remedy under the tent or in the locker room at halftime of the win over Clemson, he also was in the heat of the game with a good sweat going and adrenaline raging through his body that night. The guess here is that he’ll be in more pain tonight and obviously, he’s going to be taking more hits to the body.

There are also multiple reports that Ohio State could be missing some players due to COVID-19 positive test results. Unfortunately for gamblers, college teams have not been releasing this information until game day and sometimes not even until less than an hour before kickoff.

This news started with an AL.com report early last week. Various reports have implied that not many important players are going to be out, while others have seemingly indicated that Ohio St. could be missing as many as 20 players.

Ohio State is ranked fourth in the nation in total offense, No. 31 in passing yards, No. 5 in rushing yards and fifth in scoring with its 43.4 points-per-game average.

For the season, Fields has completed 73.4 percent of his passes for 1,906 yards with a 21/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has 316 rushing yards, five TDs and a 4.2 yards-per-carry average.

Sermon has 868 rushing yards, four TDs and a 7.5 YPC average. He has looked unstoppable over the last six quarters dating back to the second half of a 22-10 win over Northwestern at the Big Ten Championship Game.

Sophomore WR Garrett Wilson has 40 receptions for 673 yards and five TDs, while Olave has caught 42 balls for 660 yards and seven TDs. TE Jeremy Ruckert has 12 catches for 115 yards and five TDs.

Ohio State is ranked second nationally at stopping the run, limiting foes to 89.1 yards rushing per game. The Buckeyes are No. 41 in the country in total defense, No. 116 (of 127 FBS teams) at defending the pass and No. 31 in scoring ‘D’ (22.0 PPG).

This unit is led by senior LB Pete Werner’s 46 tackles, two forced fumbles, two QB hurries, 1.5 tackles for loss and one sack. Junior DT Tommy Togiai has recorded 23 tackles, three sacks, two passes broken up, 1.5 TFL’s and one forced fumble. Junior CB Shaun Wade is going to have to play exceptionally well for Ohio St. to slow down Alabama’s vaunted offense. Wade has 30 tackles, three PBU, two interceptions and one pick-six.

Betting Analysis – Alabama Crimson Tide

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• 2020: 12-0 SU, 8-4 ATS, 7-5 O/U

A third factor (in addition to potential COVID-19 absences and the questions about Fields’s injury) that could be key in this game and sway bettors toward the Alabama side is the return of junior WR Jaylen Waddle, who sustained a broken ankle that required surgery in a 48-17 win at Tennessee on Oct. 24.

Waddle has practiced all week and reportedly could’ve played against Notre Dame 10 days ago. Saban has said that Waddle will be a game-time decision, but it appears that he’s clearly going to be in uniform and available.

If he’s just 85 to 90 percent healthy, he can have a positive impact on this game. Remember, most felt like Waddle was the nation’s most dynamic player and Alabama’s best WR coming into this season (ahead of Smith, who became the first WR to win the Heisman Trophy since Michigan’s Desmond Howard in 1991).

Before suffering the injury on the opening kickoff against the Volunteers, Waddle had 25 receptions for 557 yards and four TDs in only four games. Even without Waddle for the last eight games, Alabama’s offense has been unstoppable.

The Tide enters the CFP finals ranked second in the nation in scoring offense with its 48.2 PPG average. That average could easily be higher if not for so many lopsided games that had Saban pulling starters as early as mid-to-late third quarter in some instances.

Alabama is ranked 46th nationally in rushing yards, sixth in total offense and fifth in passing yards. Jones, who finished third in the Heisman voting, has completed 77.0 percent of his passes for 4,036 yards with a 36/4 TD-INT ratio. Smith, who had the game-winning TD catch in an overtime win over Georgia as a true freshman in the CFP finals three years ago, has 105 receptions for 1,641 yards and 20 TDs. He also has a rushing TD and a punt return for a TD.

Senior RB Najee Harris has 1,387 rushing yards, 24 TDs and a 6.1 YPC average. He’s also a serious threat catching the ball out of the backfield, hauling in 36 catches for 346 yards and three TDs.

Alabama’s defense isn’t nearly as salty as it’s been for most of Saban’s dynastic tenure. This unit can be had and struggled mightily against the two elite QBs and offenses it faced. Ole Miss and Florida hung 48 and 46 points, respectively, on the Tide.

Alabama is ranked No. 79 in the country at defending the pass and No. 32 in total defense. The Tide is No. 13 nationally in both scoring ‘D’ (19.0 PPG) and versus the run.

This unit is led by senior LB Dylan Moses, who has recorded 74 tackles, five TFL’s, three PBU, 1.5 sacks, one interception and one forced fumble.

Postseason Trends & Notes

• This is just the fourth time Ohio State has been an underdog since 2015, going 2-1 both SU and ATS in those three situations. The Buckeyes are 1-1 both SU and ATS as ‘dogs under Day (last year’s loss and this year’s win over Clemson), but they are an incredible 8-1 both SU and ATS in nine games as underdogs since 2012.
• Alabama is 7-5 SU and 5-7 ATS in 12 games as a single-digit favorite since capturing a non-covering 45-40 win over Clemson as a 6.5-point ‘chalk’ in the 2015 CFP finals. This is only the Tide’s second single-digit ‘chalk’ situation of the season. They beat Georgia 41-24 as six-point home ‘chalk’ on Oct. 17.
• Saban owns a 7-3 SU record but just a 3-7 ATS mark in 10 CFP games.
• Alabama has won 11 of its 12 games by margins of 15 points or more this season. The lone win that wouldn’t have been a spread cover with tonight’s line was the 52-46 victory over Florida at the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta on Dec. 19.
• If tonight’s total stays North of 74 points, it will be the highest Alabama has seen this year. It has played three games with totals in the 70s, with the ‘over’ going 2-1 in those spots at Ole Miss (63-48), vs. Florida (52-46) and at Arkansas (52-3). Only three of Alabama’s 12 games have produced combined scores of 76 points or more.

Ohio State Buckeyes

Going back to 2012, Ohio State is 6-4 SU and 5-5 ATS in its last 10 postseason contests.

The 49 points scored in the Sugar Bowl versus Clemson was the highest offensive effort during this span.

The Buckeyes have been underdogs five times in this stretch and the school has gone 3-2 both SU and ATS.

In the wins, Ohio State posted 42, 42, and 49 points while being held to 17 and 23 in losses.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Alabama has gone 8-2 SU and 4-5-1 ATS in its last 10 postseason matchups.

The Crimson Tide have been favored in every game during this span.

In the two losses, Alabama has allowed 44 and 35 points. Both of those games went ‘over’ the number.

In the four games that the Tide have covered during this stretch, the defense allowed a combined 27 points and that led to an easy 4-0 ‘under’ mark.

Historically Speaking

These teams met in the 2014 CFP semifinals in New Orleans, where Ohio St. outlasted Alabama by a 42-35 count as a 7.5-point underdog. The 77 combined points catapulted ‘over’ the 58-point total.

The Buckeyes were led by RB Ezekiel Elliott, who ran for 230 yards and two TDs on 20 carries. Cardale Jones threw for 243 yards and one TD. The Buckeyes went on to win the national title with a blowout win over Oregon and Marcus Mariota in the CFP finals.

College Football Playoff Championship Predictions

• Score Prediction: Alabama 45, Ohio State 29
• Best Bet: Alabama First Half -5

College Football Playoff Trends

This will be the 7th College Football Playoff Championship game and including the semifinal matchups, we’ve seen 20 games played so far.

Underdogs have gone 11-9 ATS so far and that includes the wins (Ohio State) and covers (Notre Dame) in this year’s semifinals.

In the Championship Game, ‘dogs have proven to be a great investment for bettors prior to last year’s dominating win by LSU.

• 2019 - LSU 42 Clemson 25, Tigers -4.5, Over 66.5
• 2018 - Clemson 44 Alabama 16, Tigers +5.5, Over 57.5
• 2017 - Alabama 26 Georgia 23 (OT), Crimson Tide -3.5, Over 45.5
• 2016 - Clemson 35 Alabama 31, Tigers +6.5, Over 51.5
• 2015 - Alabama 45 Clemson 40, Crimson Tide -6.5, Over 53.5
• 2014 - Ohio State 42 Oregon 20, Buckeyes +6.5, Under 72.5

Overall, underdogs have gone 3-3 SU and 5-1 ATS.

Alabama has never covered the point-spread in any of its four CFB final appearances despite going 2-2 in the title game. Ohio State is 1-0.

The ‘over’ has gone 5-1 in the first six title games.

This year’s ‘over/under’ of 75 will likely be the highest closing total in the championship game.

College Football Playoff Betting Results

2020-21 College Football Playoff

2019-20 College Football Playoff

2018-19 College Football Playoff

2017-18 College Football Playoff

2016-17 College Football Playoff

2015-16 College Football Playoff

2014-15 College Football Playoff