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Tennessee Volunteers vs. Florida Gators Predictions

 
Sept. 24, 2021
Brian Edwards
VI College Football Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

The SEC will heat up on Saturday from "The Swamp" as No. 11 Florida Gators (2-1) will host the Tennessee Volunteeers (2-1) in a primetime matchup.

Oddsmakers aren't expecting a tight matchup in the conference rivalry game from Gainesville, with the Gators listed close to three-touchdown favorites over the Vols.

Tennessee Volunteers vs. Florida Gators Best Bets

Score Prediction: 41-17 (Halftime 24-6)

Best Bet: Gators 1st Quarter, Gators 1st Half

In a home game vs. Florida Atlantic University (FAU) and in Week 2 at South Florida, UF scored 14 points in the first quarter and easily covered the spread as a single-digit 'chalk' for first-quarter wagers. Likewise, the Gators took the money as 13.5 and 17-point 'chalk' in the first half against both the Owls and the Bulls when they led 14-0 and 21-3 at halftime, respectively. In both of those instances, UF ended up allowing backdoor covers for the game in wins by scores of 35-14 and 42-20.

Although I believe Dan Mullen's squad will more than likely cover for the game this time around, I feel more confident backing the Gators in both the first quarter and the first half. I've already wagered on Florida -11 in the first half. The first-quarter number hadn't been released as of Wednesday, but it's probably going to be six or 6.5.

It almost certainly will be less than seven but as long as it's seven or fewer, we're also bullish on the Gators in the opening stanza. If this were a noon Eastern kick, I think the likelihood of UF (and its crowd) being flat would be higher.

The 7:00 p.m. Eastern start is helpful to the home team and you can see below that over 90K should be amped up at night!


Tennessee Volunteers vs. Florida Gators Betting Analysis

While I beleive Florida will earn the "W" in this matchup, arguments can always be made for both teams. Listed below are my thoughts on why the Vols could sneak in a cover and also more betting analysis on the Gators too.

Why Tennessee will Cover

After gunning for Alabama since losing 52-46 in last year's SEC Championship Game, Florida falls into a vintage letdown scenario here.

Although Tennessee hasn't faced tough competition in getting off to a 2-1 start in the Josh Heupel Era, it seems to have found a reliable quarterback. Hendon Hooker is completing 70.2 percent of his passes and has thrown for 392 yards with a 5/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The former Virginia Tech signal caller also has 113 rushing yards and one TD while averaging a team-high 6.3 yards per carry. For his career, Hooker has 25/8 TD-INT ratio with 16 rushing TDs.

There are whispers out of Knoxville that QB Joe Milton, who was injured in Week 2 vs. Pitt, returned to practice Wednesday and could reclaim his starting role. Milton has more speed than Hooker, offering big-play capability with his legs. Both of UT's running backs have been productive.

Jabari Small had 116 rushing yards and one TD on 22 carries in a 38-6 home win over Bowling Green. The Vols are ranked 15th in the nation in scoring with their 42.7 points-per-game average. They're ranked fifth in the country in rushing defense, limiting opponents to merely 54.3 yards per game. UT is No. 17 in the nation in total defense and No. 22 in scoring 'D' (15.7 PPG).


The Vols offense has been very strong on the ground this season and RB Tiyon Evans is a player to watch. (AP

Why Florida will Cover

QB Emory Jones played his best game in last week's 31-29 home loss vs. Alabama. After throwing four interceptions in his first two starts, his confidence needed a boost and he got that with last week's performance. Although we won't know for sure until later in the week, there's optimism that QB Anthony Richardson will be ready to go Saturday.

With 15 wins over Tennessee in the last 16 head-to-head meetings, including 10 wins by double-digit margins in the last 14 victories, UF has owned this rivalry in recent memory. The Gators became the first Alabama opponent during Nick Saban's tenure to rush for more than 200 yards and limit the Crimson Tide to fewer than 100 rushing yards.

They're ranked second in the nation in rushing yards and eighth in total offense. After giving up 21 points to Alabama in the first quarter, UF's defense played terrific in the game's final 45 minutes and limited the Tide to just 10 add-on points.

The Gators are 9-7-1 ATS in 17 games as home favorites during head coach Dan Mullen's tenure, while the Volunteers are 13-7-1 ATS in 21 games as road underdogs since 2011.

Plus, UT is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games as a double-digit 'dog.


Florida RB Dameon Pierce has been tough to stop as he leads the team with five rushing touchdowns. (AP)

Tennessee Volunteers vs. Florida Gators Betting Odds

If you check out the VI Matchups Index and view our Betting Trends Movements for this matchup, you'll see that the Vols are getting plenty of attention as road underdogs.

Tennessee is 70% while Florida is 30% on the point-spread, yet the number has moved up. This is a perfect example of reverse line movement where the overall bets are on the Vols but the sharp money is on the Gators.

Florida opened on Sunday afternoon as a 17-point home favorite and the number has been pushed up to -19 as of Thursday.


Backing the Vols for the outright victory should return you odds as high as 8/1 come Saturday afternoon. If you just want to toss UF into a parlay or straight up wager, a $100 wager would net you close to $8.33 on the Gators victory.

SEC Week 3 Best Bets

Check out all of my SEC Best Bets with host Kevin Rogers on the VI YouTube channel.

Tennessee Volunteers vs. Florida Gators Betting Resources

  • Matchup: SEC
  • Date: Saturday, September 25, 2021
  • Venue: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
  • Location: Gainesville, FL
  • TV-Time: ESPN - 7:00 p.m. ET

Inside the Betting Stats - Vols vs. Gators

(Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS)

Tennessee Volunteers

  • Record: 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS
  • Home: 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS
  • Away: 0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS
  • Over-Under: 2-1
  • PPG (Rank): 36.0 (29th)
  • DPPG (Rank): 23.5 (52nd)

Florida Gators

  • Record: 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS
  • Home: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS
  • Away: 1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS
  • Over-Under: 1-2
  • PPG (Rank): 35.3 (32nd)
  • DPPG (Rank): 21.7 (43rd)

Key Players to Watch

Tennessee Volunteers

  • QB Hendon Hooker (392 Passing Yards, 5 TDs)
  • QB Joe Milton (189 Passing Yards, 98 Rushing Yards)
  • RB Tiyon Evans (161 Rushing Yards, 2 TDs)
  • RB Jabari Small (135 Rushing Yards, 2 TDs)
  • TE Jacob Warren (9 Receptions, 69 Yards, 2 TDs)
  • DB Theo Jackson (25 Tackles, 1.5 Sacks)
  • LB Jeremy Banks (13 Tackles, 1 Sack)

Florida Gators

  • QB Emory Jones (459 Passing Yards, 232 Rushing Yards, 4 Total TDs)
  • QB Anthony Richardson (467 Total Yards, 4 TDs)
  • RB Malik Davis (212 Rushing Yards, 2 TDs)
  • RB Dameon Pierce (5 TDs)
  • WR Jacob Copeland (200 Receiving Yards, 2 TDs)
  • LB Mohamoud Diabate (18 Tackles)
  • S Tre'Vez Johnson (16 Tackles)

Tennessee vs. Florida Betting Trends

Head-to-Head

  • This will be the 51st all-time meeting between the two schools. Florida owns a 30-20 series record.
  • The Gators have won four straight and 15 of the last 16 meetings against the Vols, which includes a 31-19 win at Knoxville last season.
  • During this dominating 15-1 run, Florida has gone 8-6-2 ATS for bettors.
  • In Gainesville, the Gators haven't lost to the Vols since 2003 and a win on Saturday would be nine straight at home for Florida versus Tennessee.

Last 5 Meetings

  • Dec. 5, 2020 - Florida 31 at Tennessee 19 (Gators -18, Under 63)
  • Sept. 21, 2019 - Florida 34 vs. Tennessee 3 (Gators -13, Under 49)
  • Sept. 22, 2018 - Florida 47 at Tennessee 21 (Vols +4, Over 46.5)
  • Sept. 16, 2017 - Florida 26 vs. Tennessee 20 (Gators -6.5, Under 50.5)
  • Sept. 24, 2016 - Tennessee 38 vs. Florida 28 (Vols -5, Over 43)

Total Talk (O/U)

Oddsmakers sent out a high total of 67 ½ for this SEC battle but the number is sitting at 63 as of Thursday evening. Total bettors have seen a stalemate in this series with the ‘over-under’ going 10-10 in the last 20 encounters. The low side is on a 3-1 run in the last four meetings and last year’s encounter had a closing number of 63.

The Vols have watched the 'over' go 2-1 this season and when tested against a quality opponent, they allowed 41 points to Pittsburgh. Meanwhile, Florida is 2-1 to the 'under' and its defense has helped that cause. The team allowed 17 PPG in its first two games before surrendering 31 to Alabama, who will likely finish 2021 as a Top-5 scoring offense.

Based on our Betting Trends, 94% of the money is on the Over 63 in this matchup between the Gators and Vols.

Coaches Corner

Saturday's meeting will be the first between Gators head coach Dan Mullen and Tennessee's Josh Heupel. When assistants coaches, the pair did square off against one another in the 2009 BCS National Championship game. Mullwen was the offensive coordinator for Florida while Heupel was the quarterbacks coach for Oklahoma. Neither offense was great in the game but Florida managed to do more in a 24-14 win.

Mullen has won three straight versus Tennessee during his tenure with the Gators and he also beat the Vols in one matchup when he was the head coach at Mississippi State.


  
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