Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Ole Miss Rebels Predictions, Odds, Picks

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

6 minute read

Oct. 9, 2021

Eytan Shander
VI College Football Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

It’s not often you get two teams coming off a loss that wasn’t anything more than inevitable, but such is the case with Arkansas and Mississippi. The Hogs come to Oxford, MS for a 12:00 p.m. ET kick off on ESPN at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Ole Miss is 3-1, while Arkansas is 4-1 on the year.

Score Prediction: Arkansas 34, Ole Miss 24

Best Bet: Under 66.5

Best Bet: Arkansas ML

Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Ole Miss Rebels Predictions

Both teams come off an expected loss to the top two teams in the country, but it’s the Razorbacks who stand the best chance of bouncing back. Don’t look at how each team performed against the respective juggernauts from last week, but how both Ole Miss and Arkansas were performing beforehand.

The Rebels are going to have their hands full with the Razorbacks running game, and despite what you saw with Georgia, Arkansas won’t be anywhere near as vulnerable on the ground. Backup QB aside, Arkansas still held UGA to 72 passing yards, this after Texas could only muster up 118.

The concern for Ole Miss isn’t their offense, as QB Matt Corral has been stellar more often than not. The biggest question now is will the Rebels defense hold up in a ridiculous back-to-back weeks against strong rushing attacks? As good as their defense has looked at times, the answer is a rather large no.

Both teams have a penalty issue – as glaring as it was for the Hogs last week, don’t expect Ole Miss to let anyone off the hook either. Lane Kiffin is going to have to hold on to the ball to keep Arkansas’ offense off the field, and that’s just counter to how Mississippi plays.

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Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Ole Miss Rebels Betting Odds

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Ole Miss is a 6-point home favorite against Arkansas. The Rebels are 3-1 ATS, while Arkansas is 4-1 ATS this year.

The total for this game is 67 points. The over is 2-0 at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium this year, and 5-4 combined for both teams.

Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Ole Miss Rebels Betting Resources

Matchup: SEC
Date: Saturday, October 9, 2021
Venue: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Location: Oxford, Mississipi
TV-Time: ESPN - 12:00 p.m. ET

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Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 4-1
ATS: 4-1
O/U: 3-2
ATS - Home: 4-0
ATS - Away: 0-1

Arkansas has the inside track to being the second-best team in the SEC West but will have to slow down the air game from Corral. Ole Miss has yet to see their QB throw an interception this year, but that’s not slowing down LB Bumper Pool and the rest of this talented defense.

The Razorbacks have allowed just 129.9 passing yards per game, so just avoiding turnovers for Ole Miss isn’t an automatic victory. On the other side, dual-threat QB KJ Jefferson is a difficult matchup for Ole Miss, especially with a trio of running backs behind him – led by Trelon Smith.

Ole Miss Rebels Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 3-1
ATS: 2-1-1
O/U: 2-2
ATS - Home: 2-0-1
ATS - Away: 0-1

Ole Miss is far from just having Corral drop back and throw the football. While their numbers don’t jump off the screen, both RBs Henry Parrish and Jerrion Ealy can break a run, there’s also a big scoring threat in Snoop Conner with limited carries in the backfield. But Corral is the true dual-scoring threat here, accounting for six of 13 total rushing TDs on the ground.

Arkansas can limit him in the air, and now put a ton of focus on stopping the ground game. Ole Miss will have to find a way to stay on the field and sustain longer drives, but that may not be in their best interest in outscoring Arkansas.

The Ole Miss Rebels have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games when facing Arkansas. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Arkansas Razorbacks

Record: 4-1
VI Ranking: 21
Points Scored: 143
Points Allowed: 95
PS/G: 28.6 (73rd)
PA/G: 19 (32nd)

Inside the Stats - Ole Miss Rebels

Record: 3-1
VI Ranking: 20
Points Scored: 219
Points Allowed: 120
PS/G: 43.8 (6th)
PA/G: 24 (65th)

Key Players to Watch

ARK: K.J. Jefferson - QB (54/91, 909 yards, 6 TD, 2 INT)
ARK: Trelon Smith (62 carries, 302 yards, 3 TD)
MISS: Matt Corral - QB (87/125, 1,210 yards, 10 TD)
MISS: Dontario Drummond - WR (24 catches, 382 yards, 4 TD)

Injuries

ARK: Dorian Gerald - DL (Leg-Out)
ARK: Dalton Wagner - OL (Undisclosed-Questionable)
MISS: Jonathan Mingo - WR (Foot-Out)
MISS: Bralon Brown - WR (Undisclosed-Out)

Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Ole Miss Rebels Betting Conclusion

Take the points if you must, but the best value on the board will be Arkansas outright winning this game. The Razorbacks are just better tested overall, taking on better teams than Ole Miss this year.

The Razorbacks have covered the spread in 7 of 8 games against Ole Miss, and in this case should get the road upset. I like the total to go under which also favors Arkansas holding off a couple of big drives from Ole Miss. The Razorbacks bounce back, while Ole Miss drops their second game in a row.

Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Ole Miss Rebels Betting Trends

Ole Miss has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight games when facing Arkansas.
Ole Miss has gone OVER the point total in six of its last nine home games.
Ole Miss has won five straight home games.
Arkansas has gone OVER the point total in four of its last five road games.
Arkansas has covered the spread in five of its last seven games.