Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Longhorns Predictions, Odds, Picks

Oct. 9, 2021
Eytan Shander
VI College Football Betting Expert

The Sooners keep winning football games yet can’t seem to win over anyone’s confidence. The Longhorns are out to prove their lone loss to Arkansas was a fluke. The two teams kickoff at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, TX for a 12:00 p.m. ET start on ABC.

Score Prediction: Oklahoma 34, Texas 31

Best Bet: Over 63.5

Best Bet: Texas +3.5

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Longhorns Predictions

Oklahoma is the only team in the top 10 who loses points for winning games. They are undefeated, but four games this year were decided by seven or fewer points. Style points seem to be lacking for Spencer Rattler and his Sooners. But they run the ball effectively, and Rattler is far from a turnover machine.

OU has been good on defense, not great, but making plays at the right time deeper in games. Ultimately the Sooners are victim to simply not blowing out teams, and while that won’t be the case against Texas either, Oklahoma wins this game. Texas seems to be quite different from the team who was run out of Arkansas.

The Longhorns are the pride of the Big 12, leading in most key team stats. Unlike the Sooners not beating teams bad enough, Texas may be accused of padding some stats against far lesser opponents. Saturday afternoon is going to answer a lot of questions about how real these two teams are, and if Longhorns QB Casey Thompson can make fewer mistakes than Rattler.

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Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Longhorns Betting Odds

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Oklahoma is a 3.5-point road favorite in Texas. Despite being 5-0, Oklahoma is just 1-4 ATS. Texas is 4-1 ATS this year.

The total for this game is 63.5 points. The over is 3-2 this year for each team.

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Longhorns Betting Resources

  • Matchup: Big 12
  • Date: Saturday, October 9, 2021
  • Venue: Cotton Bowl
  • Location: Dallas, Texas
  • TV-Time: ABC - 12:00 p.m. ET

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Oklahoma Sooners Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 5-0
  • ATS: 1-4
  • O/U: 3-2
  • ATS - Home: 1-3
  • ATS - Away: 0-1

Oklahoma isn’t in any trouble. They weren’t coming into this game and won’t be following the final whistle. Rattler will have some time – not a ton – to throw the ball, utilizing a trio of receivers led by Marin Mims ridiculous 18.9 YPC. The Sooners have two legit running backs inKennedy Brooks and Eric Gray - splitting time and each averaging over five yards per carry. This will be a tough offense to slow down for the Sooners, but they’ve played just good enough on defense when it matters.

Texas Longhorns Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 4-1
  • ATS: 4-1
  • O/U: 3-2
  • ATS - Home: 3-0
  • ATS - Away: 1-1

Texas brings the conference’s best QB-RB punch into this game, as the Longhorns will need Bijan Robinson to continue to carry the workload on the ground. Robinson is punishing opposing defenses totaling over 650 yards on a 6.2 YPC average. Casey Thompson has stepped into the starting role with ease and looks more comfortable by the week.

Unfortunately for Texas – and ultimately their undoing – they won’t be able to rely on many turnovers. Steve Sarkisian can draw up plays all day, but if his defense can’t create any turnovers then it’s going to be a long day at the Cotton Bowl.

The Texas Longhorns have lost five of their last six games when facing the Oklahoma Sooners. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Oklahoma Sooners

  • Record: 5-0
  • VI Ranking: 3
  • Points Scored: 192
  • Points Allowed: 95
  • PS/G: 38.4 (16th)
  • PA/G: 19 (33rd)

Inside the Stats - Texas Longhorns

  • Record: 4-1
  • VI Ranking: 15
  • Points Scored: 219
  • Points Allowed: 120
  • PS/G: 43.8 (6th)
  • PA/G: 24 (65th)

Key Players to Watch

  • OU: Spencer Rattler - QB (122/160, 1,260 yards, 10 TD, 4 INT)
  • OU: Kennedy Brooks - RB (54 carries, 318 yards, 4 TD)
  • TEX: Casey Thompson - QB (54/76, 707 yards, 9 TD, 3 INT)
  • TEX: Bijan Robinson - RB (105 carries, 652 yards, 7 TD)


  • OU: Jalen Redmond - DL (Knee-Out)
  • OU: Theo Wease - WR (Leg-Out)
  • OU: Marcus Major - RB (Academics-Out)
  • OU: Woodi Washington - CB (Undisclosed-Out)
  • OU: Brian Darby - WR (Undisclosed-Questionable)
  • OU: Kendall Dennis - CB (Undisclosed-Questionable)
  • OU: Cody Jackson - WR (Undisclosed-Questionable)
  • OU: Nathan Rawlins-Kibonge - DE (Undisclosed-Questionable)
  • OU: Danny Stutsman - LB (Arm-Questionable)
  • TEX: Denzel Okafor - OL (Knee-Out)
  • TEX: Ishmael Ibraheem - DB (Knee-Out)
  • TEX: Jaden Alexis - WR (Knee-Out)
  • TEX: Troy Omeire - WR (Knee-Out)
  • TEX: Josh Thompson - CB (Concussion-Questionable)
  • TEX: Brayden Liebrock - TE (Shoulder-Out)
  • TEX: Jahdae Barron - DB (Knee-Questionable)

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Longhorns Betting Conclusion

Oklahoma has covered just one game in the season so far, a 76-0 destruction of Western Carolina. I like the Sooners to win this game but not by anything more than 3 points.

Texas is the opposite here ATS, as they’ve covered larger numbers against worse teams, with their only blemish being the loss to the Razorbacks. Only the brave would create a window with the Sooners ML and Texas at anything +3.5 or above. The best bet would be watching both teams firmly score points on their way to the over.

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Longhorns Betting Trends

  • Texas has covered the spread in seven of its last nine games when facing Oklahoma.
  • Texas has gone OVER the point total in five of its last seven games.
  • Oklahoma has won five of its last six games when facing Texas.
  • Oklahoma has gone OVER the point total in four of its last six games.