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Memphis Tigers vs. UCF Knights Predictions, Odds, Picks

 
Oct. 20, 2021
Stuart Durst
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

AAC action on Friday night sees the Memphis Tigers head to Orlando, Florida to take on the UCF Knights. UCF does have home-field advantage in this matchup which will be taking place at 7:00 p.m. ET and will air on ESPN2 from the Bounce House.

Score Prediction

Memphis 30, UCF 27

Best Bet

Memphis ML

Memphis Tigers vs. UCF Knights Predictions

On Friday we get a conference matchup between two teams that haven't quite lived up to expectations this season. Memphis has good memories playing UCF, while they had lost the previous 13 matches in a row, they won in dramatic fashion during last season's Liberty Bowl. This season, neither team will likely be in a situation to play in those high pressure games and are looking to stay just above .500.

While UCF did open this game as two point favorites, the line has quickly moved away from that. Most spots now have this game as either a pick 'em or with UCF as the slight underdog. I'm seeing Memphis moneyline at -110 on multiple books currently has the best price available and that's the best bet from this game. UCF has dealt with some incredibly tough injuries this season and I'm not confident they can keep up with the Memphis offense.

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Memphis Tigers vs. UCF Knights Betting Odds

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Memphis Tigers vs. UCF Knights Betting Resources

  • Matchup: AAC
  • Date: Friday, October 22, 2021
  • Venue: Bounce House
  • Location: Orlando, Florida
  • TV-Time: ESPN2 - 7:00 p.m. ET


Memphis Tigers Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 4-3
  • ATS: 3-4
  • O/U: 3-4
  • ATS - Home: 3-1
  • ATS - Away: 0-3

Memphis is a very good offensive team. So far this season, they have scored at least 28 points in every game including 31 in an impressive win over a nationally ranked Ole Miss team. The Tigers enter this game second in the AAC in total offense and despite the outcome of the game, always put up points. The UCF defense has been very middle of the road this season and I don't imagine they give Memphis too many problems.

In terms of sneaky fantasy/DFS plays I’m not sure there are many better names then Seth Henigan. The young quarterback leads this team in passing with 2,153 passing yards, which is sixth in the nation, and boasts an impressive 16:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Running back Brandon Thomas and wide receiver Calvin Austin III have been absolutely great for this uptempo Memphis offense and I think UCF has trouble keeping up.

My handicap on this game is fairly simple, neither of these teams are good on defense, if this game is going to be a race then that plays into Memphis’s strengths and I think they take the win.

UCF Knights Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 3-3
  • ATS: 1-5
  • O/U: 4-1-1
  • ATS - Home: 1-2
  • ATS - Away: 0-3

An interesting trend with this UCF team is their home vs away splits so far. This season they are 3-0 at home allowing 20.3 points per game meanwhile they are 0-3 on the road allowing 44.0 points per game. While I think this can be partially explained but the strength of schedule being more conducive to lower scoring games at home, it's still something to watch out for. UCF may not be competing for a huge bowl game but their fans are gonna come out and get loud either way.

The biggest blow to this UCF team has unarguably been the season ending injury of up-and-coming quarterback Dillon Gabriel. He was someone that multiple people familiar with the AAC, including myself, were projecting for a breakout season but unfortunately will not have the opportunity. Beyond that, star receiver Jaylon Robinson also went down with injury, another core piece of this UCF football team.

Overall I'm expecting UCF to play a solid competitive football game but they haven't shown me enough. They should heavily rely on there running game with a tandem involving Isaiah Bowser and Johnny Richardson both having good seasons so far. I think this Memphis defenses does its best to force UCF to throw the ball and im just not confident they get it done.


The Memphis Tigers have failed to cover the spread in six straight road games when playing in October. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Memphis Tigers

  • Record: 4-3
  • VI Ranking: 78
  • Points Scored: 251
  • Points Allowed: 213
  • PS/G: 35.6 (24th)
  • PA/G: 30.4 (96th)

Inside the Stats - UCF Knights

  • Record: 3-3
  • VI Ranking: 82
  • Points Scored: 205
  • Points Allowed: 193
  • PS/G: 34.2 (31st)
  • PA/G: 32.2 (107th)

Key Players to Watch

  • MEM: Seth Henigan - QB (138/277, 2,153 yards, 16 TD, 4 INT)
  • MEM: Calvin Austin III - WR (50 catches, 857 yards, 8 TD)
  • UCF: Isaiah Bowser - RB (64 carries, 295 yards, 6 TD)
  • UCF: Ryan O'Keefe - WR (35 catches, 375 yards, TD)

Injuries

  • MEM: Thomas Pickens - LB (Undisclosed-Questionable)
  • MEM: Gabriel Rogers - DB (Undisclosed-Questionable)
  • MEM: Grant Gunnell - QB (Leg-Out)
  • MEM: Seth Henigan - QB (Arm-Probable)
  • MEM: Rodrigues Clark - RB (Undisclosed-Questionable)
  • UCF: Jarvis Ware - DB (Undisclosed-Out)
  • UCF: R.J. Harvey - QB (Knee-Out)
  • UCF: Jaylon Robinson - WR (Leg-Out)
  • UCF: Dillon Gabriel - QB (Collarbone-Out)
  • UCF: Kalia Davis - DL (Knee-Out)
  • UCF: Dionte Marks - WR (Leg-Questionable)
  • UCF: Ricky BArber - DL (Undisclosed-Questionable)

Memphis Tigers vs. UCF Knights Betting Conclusion

Backup quarterbacks usually aren't great and facing off against a good Memphis offense I don't think Keene can keep pace. I had high expectations for UCF at the start of the season and fairly low ones for Memphis, but things have changed and we can't let that impact the current value on the board.

Memphis Tigers vs. UCF Knights Betting Trends

  • Memphis has gone UNDER the point total in eight of its last 11 games.
  • Memphis has failed to cover the spread in eight of its last nine road games.
  • UCF has failed to cover the spread in eight of its last 11 home games.
  • UCF has gone OVER the point total in four of its last dive games.

  
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