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College Football

UNLV Rebels vs. Nevada Wolf Pack Predictions, Odds, Picks

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
5 minute read
Oct. 29, 2021
Stuart Durst
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

A Mountain West matchup on Friday night sees the UNLV Rebels still looking for their first win when they take on the state rival Nevada Wolf Pack. Opening kick is scheduled for 10:00 p.m. ET and will air on CBSSN from Mackay Stadium in Reno, Nevada.

Score Prediction

Nevada 37, UNLV 21

Best Bet

UNLV +20.5

UNLV Rebels vs. Nevada Wolf Pack Predictions

UNLV plays like that annoying fruit fly that you just can't quite kill. UNLV is winless this season and that's something we can ignore, but this team is playing stronger than that record indicates. Nevada is coming off of a close loss to a ranked Fresno State team and is looking to finish the season strong in hopes of building up that bowl game resume.

The Dogs are barking this week and I’m all in! While it's easy to buy into the Nevada bounce back narrative, UNLV is playing good football and this spread should be closer to 16-17. UNLV has only lost by 20+ points twice this season, and have not done that since much earlier in the year.

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UNLV Rebels vs. Nevada Wolf Pack Betting Odds

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UNLV Rebels vs. Nevada Wolf Pack Betting Resources

  • Matchup: Mountain West
  • Date: Friday, October 29, 2021
  • Venue: Mackay Stadium
  • Location: Reno, Nevada
  • TV-Time: CBSSN - 10:00 p.m. ET

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UNLV Rebels Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 0-7
  • ATS: 4-2-1
  • O/U: 3-4
  • ATS - Home: 1-2-1
  • ATS - Away: 3-0

Over the last couple weeks UNLV has lost by seven to San Jose State, four to Utah State, seven to UTSA, and eight to Fresno State. While it's easy to just look at that record and automatically assume this team is terrible, those performances are more impressive then what we’re seeing out of some power five teams this season.

Despite the fact that they have been underdogs in every single game this season, they have actually covered two of their last three football games, just missing the cover against Fresno State last week. This offense has been a bit up and down with freshman quarterback Cameron Friel, showing some offensive flashes but also turning the ball over four times this season.

Their quarterback Doug Brumfield, who started the season, might have a chance to suit up this week which would definitely improve the offense. This UNLV team already put Fresno State on upset alert just a couple weeks ago, and I could see them doing it again this week.

Nevada Wolf Pack Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 5-2
  • ATS: 5-2
  • O/U: 5-2
  • ATS - Home: 2-1
  • ATS - Away: 3-1

Nevada has had a pretty solid season so far and are definitely looking for a bounce back after a close game against Fresno State. They had played really well in division, beating both Boise State and Hawaii earlier in the season but last week's loss definitely must have stung. This team wants to stay in contention and will need a win against a winless UNLV team.

Carson Strong was a popular preseason Heisman candidate and has played well this season. Their offense is guided by quarterback Carson Strong, who has completed 70.4% of his passes for 2,466 yards and 20 touchdowns along with only four interceptions. Touchdown-to-interception ratio is something I've stressed throughout my articles this season. It's clear that Strong is great at accurately placing those dimes he's known for.

Overall Nevada should take care of business here in a game there favored by 20 in. I'm not worried about them losing to Nevada, especially with everything at stake, but I do see them allowing a backdoor cover to UNLV. UNLV is keeping games close and 20 points is just too high for me.


Nevada has gone OVER the point total in five of its last seven games. (AP)

Inside the Stats - UNLV Rebels

  • Record: 0-7
  • VI Ranking: 130
  • Points Scored: 137
  • Points Allowed: 237
  • PS/G: 19.6 (118th)
  • PA/G: 33.9 (114th)

Inside the Stats - Nevada Wolf Pack

  • Record: 5-2
  • VI Ranking: 42
  • Points Scored: 250
  • Points Allowed: 175
  • PS/G: 35.7 (21st)
  • PA/G: 25 (64th)

Key Players to Watch

  • UNLV: Cameron Friel - QB (73/114, 859 yards, 2 TD, 4 INT)
  • UNLV: Charles Williams - RB (144 carries, 714 yards, 7 TD)
  • NEV: Carson Strong - QB (216/306, 2,466 yards, 20 TD, 4 INT)
  • NEV: Cole Turner - WR (42 catches, 508 yards, 6 TD)

Injuries

  • TBD

UNLV Rebels vs. Nevada Wolf Pack Betting Conclusion

The total was a very interesting spot in this game. UNLV has kept games relatively low scoring and I was definitely considering the under on the 58 point total. We all know Strong and Nevada love airing the ball out, but I'm not sure they will need to score their implied amount of points. I'm not loving how many 20 point underdogs I'm on this week, but I trust UNLV enough to keep this game close.

UNLV Rebels vs. Nevada Wolf Pack Betting Trends

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