Purdue Boilermakers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Predictions, Odds, Picks

Nov. 13, 2021
Jonathan Willis
VI Betting Expert

A Big Ten battle sees the the Purdue Boilermakers head to Columbus, Ohio to take on the Ohio State Buckeyes. Kick off is set for 3:30 p.m. ET and will air on ABC from Ohio Stadium.

Score Prediction

Ohio State 45, Purdue 21

Best Bet

Ohio State -20.5


Purdue Boilermakers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Predictions

The Purdue Boilermakers have already defeated two top five teams this season, and they will look to take down a third on Saturday when they head to the Buckeye State to face the Ohio State Buckeyes. Ohio State has been on a warpath since losing to Oregon in Week 2, but the Buckeyes face a tricky final stretch with games against Purdue, Michigan State, and Michigan over the next three weeks.

It’s been a minute since Ohio State blew out an opponent. The Buckeyes struggled through their first three games of the season before ripping off four straight wins of at least 39 points. They have only defeated Penn State and Nebraska by nine points apiece the last two weeks, but they are primed for another big win.

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Purdue Boilermakers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Betting Odds

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Purdue Boilermakers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Betting Resources

  • Matchup: Big 10
  • Date: Saturday, November 13, 2021
  • Venue: Ohio Stadium
  • Location: Columbus, Ohio
  • TV-Time: ABC - 3:30 p.m. ET

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Purdue Boilermakers Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 6-3
  • ATS: 5-4
  • O/U: 2-7
  • ATS - Home: 2-3
  • ATS - Away: 3-1

Aidan O’Connell has been superb in Purdue’s big wins over Iowa and Michigan State. He threw for 375 yards and two touchdowns against the Hawkeyes, averaging 9.4 YPC. O’Connell was even better against the Spartans, throwing for 536 yards and three touchdowns while averaging 9.9 YPA. His completion percentage has been above 74% for each of the last four games.

This is going to be a great draft for wide receivers, and Purdue’s David Bell is one of the best of the bunch. Bell has already surpassed 1,000 yards on the year, and he has been at his best in big games. He had 11 catches for over 200 yards and a touchdown against both Iowa and Michigan State.

The Boilermakers have had a hard time running the ball though. Purdue is one of the worst teams nationally when it comes to picking up yards on the ground, as they are averaging just 2.5 YPC and 78.0 YPG. That’s why this offense is only ranked 64th per SP+ despite the success of O’Connell and Bell.

Purdue’s defense has been much better than expected. The Boilermakers are ranked 28th in Defensive SP+ as defensive end George Karlaftis has been superb off the edge. He only has 2.5 sacks, but he has 41 pressures and is projected to be a top ten pick in the 2022 NFL Draft.

Ohio State Buckeyes Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 8-1
  • ATS: 4-4-1
  • O/U: 5-4
  • ATS - Home: 2-3
  • ATS - Away: 2-1-1

We were a little too quick to write off C.J. Stroud. Stroud is completing 67% of his passes for 9.8 YPA with 25 touchdowns and five interceptions this season. He didn’t play well early in the season, but he has thrived since that point. The freshman quarterback has thrown for at least 305 yards in four of Ohio State’s last five games.

It helps that Stroud has some superb receivers. Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave were all-conference selections coming into the year, but Jaxon Smith-Njigba has emerged as the biggest weapon on the Buckeyes. Smith-Njigba has had at least five receptions and 95 yards in the last four games, and he had a monster performance against Nebraska last week with 15 receptions for 240 yards and a touchdown.

Ohio State is running effectively once again too. Miyan Williams and Master Teague III have taken a back seat to sensational freshman TreVeyon Henderson. Henderson should surpass 1,000 rushing yards on the season this week, and he is averaging 7.3 YPC with 12 touchdowns.

The defense has improved since Kerry Coombs was relieved from play calling duties. Ohio State’s front seven is allowing just 3.0 YPC, and the Buckeyes are 12th in the nation in sack rate.

Ohio State has failed to cover the spread in six of its last eight home games. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Purdue Boilermakers

  • Record: 6-3
  • VI Ranking: 35
  • Points Scored: 223
  • Points Allowed: 166
  • PS/G: 24.8 (92nd)
  • PA/G: 18.4 (16th)

Inside the Stats - Ohio State Buckeyes

  • Record: 8-1
  • VI Ranking: 6
  • Points Scored: 404
  • Points Allowed: 171
  • PS/G: 44.9 (1st)
  • PA/G: 19 (20th)

Key Players to Watch

  • PUR: Aidan O'Connell - QB (271 carries, 2,087 yards, 12 TD, 8 INT)
  • PUR: David Bell - WR (64 catches, 1,003 yards, 5 TD)
  • OHST: C.J. Stroud - QB (183/273, 2,675 yards, 25 TD, 5 INT)
  • OHST: TreVeyon Henderson - RB (128 carries, 937 yards, 12 TD)

Purdue Boilermakers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Betting Conclusion

This should be a rout. Purdue emptied the playbook against Iowa and Michigan State, and the Boilermakers are going to find it much more difficult to get past Ohio State. The Buckeyes have much more talent and won’t be beat too often by Bell, leading to a big win for Ohio State.

Purdue Boilermakers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Betting Trends

  • Purdue has gone UNDER the point total in seven of its last nine.
  • Purdue has covered the spread in three of its last four games.
  • Ohio State has gone OVER the point total in 10 of its last 15 games.
  • Ohio State has failed to cover the spread in six of its last eight home games.