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College Football

Bowling Green Falcons vs. Miami-Ohio RedHawks Predictions, Odds, Picks

Kevin Rogers
Kevin Rogers Sports Betting Expert
7 minute read
Nov. 16, 2021
Dan Dobish
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

The Bowling Green Falcons (3-7, 1-5) hit the road to take on the Miami (Ohio) Redhawks (5-5, 4-2) in a key MAC East Division battle on Tuesday night at Yager Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on ESPNU.

Score Prediction

Miami (Ohio) 34, Bowling Green 20

Best Bets

Bowling Green +17 (-110)

Over 51.5 (-110)

Bowling Green Falcons vs. Miami-Ohio RedHawks Predictions

The Falcons picked up a 56-44 victory at Buffalo Oct. 30, winning outright as a 13.5-point underdog, and they hoped to carry over that momentum into the Battle of I-75 against rival Toledo at Doyt L. Perry Stadium last week. Instead, Bowling Green got curb-stomped at home by an angry Toledo team, 49-17. The Falcons allowed two scoring plays of 50 or more yards, and were down 35-10 at halftime, and never came close to recovering, or covering.

Meanwhile, the Redhawks were back home for just the fourth time all season. After a disappointing 35-33 loss at Ohio in the previous mid-week MACtion, Miami came home and took their day out on Buffalo, 45-18. Miami easily covered a seven-point number as the OVER connected for the second straight outing. The Redhawks posted 185 rushing yards with 351 passing yards while leading the Bulls 25 to 21 in the first-down department, too. Miami also won the turnover battle by a 4-0 margin, and you're going to win most every time you're getting plenty of short fields.

Miami leads the all-time series 45-24-5, with wins in the past two meetings. The Redhawks spanked the Falcons 44-3 in the most recent meeting in Oxford on Nov. 13, 2019. Miami has led Bowling Green 13-6 in this series dating back to 1998, too.

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Bowling Green Falcons vs. Miami-Ohio RedHawks Betting Resources

  • Matchup: MAC
  • Date: Tuesday, November 16, 2021
  • Venue: Yager Stadium
  • Location: Oxford, Ohio
  • TV-Time: ESPNU - 8:00 p.m. ET
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Bowling Green Falcons Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 3-7
  • ATS: 7-3
  • O/U: 5-5
  • ATS - Home: 2-3
  • ATS - Away: 5-0

The Falcons opened the season 2-2 SU, and they covered the first five games of the season. Bowling Green topped Minnesota on the road Sept. 15, winning outright as a 30.5-point underdog, and it looked like perhaps the program was on its way up and heading for a potential bowl game. But the Falcons lost four in a row from Oct. 2-23, and it's another cold winter in Bowling Green with no bowl game on the horizon.

Bowling Green saw the UNDER hit in the first five games, but oddly enough, the OVER has connected in the previous five outings. The Falcons have been cover kings, too, going 7-3 ATS on the season, the most covers of any team in the MAC.

While the Falcons no longer have a shot at winning anything in the MAC, they can play spoiler by throwing a crimp into the plans of the Redhawks. Bowling Green is 7-2 ATS in the past seven as an underdog, and 5-0 ATS in the past five as a road 'dog. However, it is just 4-10 ATS in the past 14 MAC games, and 1-7 ATS in the past eight games in the month of November.

Miami-Ohio RedHawks Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

Miami is tied for first place in the East with Kent State at 4-2 in the division. The good news is that Miami plays at Kent State on Nov. 27, so if they are able to beat Bowling Green on Tuesday, it's all in front of them for a MAC Championship Game trip, and a favorable bowl game. They'll likely go bowling, regardless, if they can win one of the next two games.

Miami is just 1-4 ATS in the past five games as a favorite, 5-12 ATS in the past 17 as a home favorite and just 3-8-1 ATS in the past 12 appearances on a Tuesday. Of course, one of those covers was last week against Buffalo. If you want to feel better about a Redhawks bet, consider them because they're 11-4 ATS in the past 15 at home, while going 19-8 ATS in the past 27 conference tilts. Miami is also 9-4 ATS in the past 13 games in the month of November, a stark contrast to Bowling Green's struggles against the number after Halloween recently.

Miami will be looking to pass, pass and then pass some more. The Redhawks have posted 275.9 yards per game through the air to rank 25th in the nation. They'll be challenged by the Falcons, who rank 18th in the country with just 190.5 passing yards per game allowed. However, Miami's defense has been one of the better defenses in the MAC, while Bowling Green's offense has been awful. The Falcons are just 104th in the nation with 22.9 PPG, and 116th with 321.3 total yards per game, so the Redhawks defense will be in good shape.

  • SU: 5-5
  • ATS: 4-6
  • O/U: 5-5
  • ATS - Home: 2-2
  • ATS - Away: 2-4

Bowling Green leads all MAC teams with seven covers in 10 games overall. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Bowling Green Falcons

  • Record: 3-7
  • VI Ranking: 103
  • Points Scored: 229
  • Points Allowed: 324
  • PS/G: 22.9
  • PA/G: 32.4

Inside the Stats - Miami-Ohio RedHawks

  • Record: 5-5
  • VI Ranking: 91
  • Points Scored: 268
  • Points Allowed: 231
  • PS/G: 26.8
  • PA/G: 23.1

Key Players to Watch

  • BG: Matt McDonald - QB (199/328, 2,192 yards, 15 total TD, 7 INT)
  • BG: Tyrone Broden - WR (31 catches, 543 yards, 5 TD)
  • MIAO: Brett Gabbert - QB (120/197, 1,786 yards, 18 TD, 3 INT)
  • MIAO: Jack Sorenson - WR (61 catches, 1,098 yards, 8 TD)

Bowling Green Falcons vs. Miami-Ohio RedHawks Betting Conclusion

The Redhawks still have a lot in front of them. They can secure bowl eligibility with a win of any sort in this one, or next week. A loss this week doesn't necessarily eliminate them from a trip to the MAC Championship Game, but a win this week sets up a winner-take-all in the East Division, which could really be fun at Kent State. But first things first, they need to brush off the pesky Falcons. While last week Bowling Green didn't put up a lot of resistance in a rivalry game with Toledo, this team has managed to keep it close more often than not, going 7-3 ATS in 10 games overall.

If you want to beat Bowling Green, you must do it on the ground, and the Redhawks have two guys capable of doing their part. RB Keyon Mozee leads the team with 422 yards and four touchdowns on the ground, with 4.3 yards per tote. RB Kevin Davis is a change of pace guy who has 236 yards and 6.6 yards per attempt, and he could be leaned upon a little more here, too. I think Miami has the best player on the field in Sorenson, too, and he will be a difference maker. Miami wins, but Bowling Green just seems to find their way into a cover each week, and this one will be no different.

Bowling Green Falcons vs. Miami-Ohio RedHawks Betting Trends

  • The Falcons have covered four of the past five road games vs. the Redhawks.
  • The road team is 8-2 ATS in the past 10 meetings in this series.
  • The OVER is 4-1 in the past five meetings.
  • The OVER is 5-2 in the past seven meetings at Miami.

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Kevin Rogers

Kevin Rogers

Kevin has been handicapping professionally since 2007 at VegasInsider before shifting to ScoresAndOdds. He focuses on MLB, NFL, college football, NBA, college basketball, and NHL and mainly uses trends, systems, and situations as his top handicapping angles. More from Kevin Rogers
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