Last Updated Dec 22, 2021, 10:38 AM

Missouri Tigers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Predictions

Nov. 25, 2021
Eytan Shander
VI Betting Expert

The Missouri Tigers don’t have much to play for at this point in the season, outside of ruining any hope left with the Arkansas Razorbacks for improving their bowl status.

Missouri will try and avoid falling to .500 and the Hogs will look for their 8th win as the two teams kick off in their season finale on Friday.

Score Prediction

  • Arkansas 24 Missouri 20

Best Bets

  • Missouri +14.5
  • Under 62.5

Missouri Tigers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Predictions

The Tigers come off an impressive OT victory over the Gators that got Florida’s head coach Dan Mullen fired.

Momentum is a real thing here for Missouri as quarterback Connor Bazelak played through injury to help the Tigers offense do just enough in the air. The damage was done by running back Tyler Badie who continued his assault on rush defenses – something the Razorbacks will have to contend with all game.

The Tigers defense can keep it relatively close by attacking the Hogs up front, the main weakness for Arkansas. Bad pass protection will keep it close, but it might come down to a late turnover or big return as the difference. Both defenses should play hard enough and physical enough to limit bigger drives, keeping this game well below the projected total.

Arkansas has been a team that’s played well despite not having one standout or signature area of domination. They are barely holding on to a Top-25 ranking, with any sizable bowl slowly slipping away.

The two big advantages Arkansas has over their opponent are stopping the run and the Tigers passing game.

The Hogs will significantly limit Badie on the ground, and Missouri isn’t geared to throw deep downfield, so expect quick and short passes from the Tigers. Both play into the Razorbacks getting just enough of an advantage to win the game.

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Missouri Tigers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Odds

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Missouri Tigers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Resources

  • Matchup: SEC
  • Date: Friday, November 26, 2021
  • Venue: War Memorial Stadium
  • Location: Little Rock, Arkansas
  • TV-Time: CBS, 3:30 p.m. ET

Missouri Tigers Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 6-5
  • ATS: 3-8
  • O/U: 7-4
  • SU - Away: 1-3
  • ATS - Away: 1-3

QB Connor Bazelak has been the Tigers leader behind center, throwing for 2475 yards, and 16 TDs to 10 INTs.

The ground game is owned and operated by Tyler Badie and his 1393 rushing yards and 13 scores. Nobody else on the team has anywhere near 200 yards and more than 2 TDs.

Tauskie Dove is the team’s leading WR with 542 yards but is without a score. Keke Chism has 410 yards and a pair of scores. Badie leads the team with 4 TDs.

Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 7-4
  • ATS: 6-4-1
  • O/U: 7-4
  • SU - Home: 5-1
  • ATS - Home: 3-3

QB KJ Jefferson leads the team with 2316 passing yards and a 20 to 3 TD/INT ratio. Jefferson is also the team’s second-leading rusher with 496 yards on the ground and five scores.

RB Trelon Smith leads the team on the ground with 555 yards, adding 4 scores. Also in the backfield, Dominique Johnson and Raheim Sanders are each over 475 rushing yards this season.

Treylon Burks is the leading wide receiver with 994 yards and 10 scores in the air for Arkansas.

The Hogs defense has caused 10 INTs on the season as opposed to only throwing three total by the Hogs' offense.

Inside the Stats - Missouri Tigers

  • Record: 6-5
  • Points Scored: 308
  • Points Allowed: 390
  • PS/G: 28 PPG
  • PA/G: 35.4 PPG

Inside the Stats - Arkansas Razorbacks

  • Record: 7-4
  • Points Scored: 329
  • Points Allowed: 295
  • PS/G: 29.9 PPG
  • PA/G: 26.8 PPG

Key Players to Watch

  • MIZ: QB Connor Bazelak (2,483 passing yards, 16 TDs)
  • MIZ: RB Tyler Badie (1,385 rushing yards, 13 TDs)
  • ARK: QB KJ Jefferson (2,316 passing yards, 20 TDs)
  • ARK: WR Treylon Burks (59 receptions, 975 yards)

Missouri Tigers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Conclusion

Both teams come in with favorable records to the over, but in this case it’s a matter of playing things tighter.

Missouri can take things a little faster than they are used to, but the Hogs will still need to win this game for that elusive 8th win. The difference in talent isn’t that wide, but it’s enough to favor Arkansas in the fourth quarter of a tight game.

Missouri will run out of gas and be unable to keep up late with the Hogs.

Missouri Tigers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Trends

  • Arkansas is on a 0-3-1 ATS skid in its last four as a favorite
  • The Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as road underdogs
  • Missouri is 0-4 ATS in its last four visits to Arkansas
  • The 'under' is on a 7-2 run in this series
  • The home team is 8-1 ATS in the last nine encounters

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