Troy Trojans vs. South Alabama Jaguars Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Troy Trojans and South Alabama Jaguars hook up in a Sun Belt Conference game on Thursday at Hancock Whitney Stadium in Mobile, Alabama. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on ESPNU.

Updated on 06/22/2024
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TROY TROJANS vs. SOUTH ALABAMA JAGUARS BETTING PREDICTION

These two Sun Belt Conference schools are separated by 167 miles, but lately there has been a giant gulf separating the two programs. Troy leads the all-time series 7-3, and it has won the past four meetings, including a 29-0 win in the most recent meeting in Mobile. South Alabama closed the gap with a narrow 31-24 loss at Troy last season, but prior to that, the previous three wins by the Trojans had come by 21 or more points.

South Alabama last topped Troy on Oct. 11, 2017 on the road, but it hasn't won at home against the Trojans since Oct. 24, 2014, a 27-13 win by the Jaguars.

Troy eased by Texas State 17-14 at home last time out on Saturday, and now faces the quick turnaround. The Trojans didn't come close to covering a 16.5-point number in that one, halting a 4-0 ATS run. The defense has allowed 14 or fewer points in three of the past four, and the UNDER is 3-1 during the span.

USA won a high-scoring 41-34 shootout with Louisiana-Monroe last time out, but it also didn't come close to covering a 17-point number. The 41 points represented a season high against an FBS opponent, and gives the Jaguars 31 or more points in four of the previous five outings. After opening 4-0 ATS, the Jags are 0-2 ATS in the past two heading into this one.

Score Prediction: Troy 24, South Alabama 21
Best Bet: Troy +3.5 (-115)
Best Bet: UNDER 48.5 (-112)

TROY TROJANS vs. SOUTH ALABAMA JAGUARS BETTING ODDS

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TROY TROJANS vs. SOUTH ALABAMA JAGUARS BETTING RESOURCES

Date: Thursday, Oct. 20, 2022
Matchup: Sun Belt
Venue: Hancock Whitney Stadium
Location: Mobile, Alabama
Time-TV: ESPNU, 7:30 p.m. ET
Expert Picks

TROY TROJANS BETTING ANALYSIS

If the Trojans do one thing well, it is pass the football. This team ranks 16th in the country with 312.7 yards per game through the air. But that's a little misleading, because they cannot run the football - at all. This team ranks 124th out of 131 FBS teams with just 89.6 yards per game on the ground, and the unbalanced attack is rather easy for opposing defenses to game plan. Still, you have to have the pass defense to stop the Air Raid attack.

Defensively, Troy is sound, allowing just 341.3 total yards per game to rank 31st, while checking in 25th in both rushing yards per game allowed (112.4) and points allowed (19.3) per game.

Troy saw a 4-0 ATS run end when it failed to cover against Texas State last time out, but it did cover as 5.5-point underdogs last time out on the road, winning 34-27 at Western Kentucky. It also covered at Appalachian State on Sept. 17, losing on a Hail Mary, while cashing in the opener on the road at Ole Miss back on Sept. 3.

For totals, the UNDER has hit in three of the past four for the Trojans, as the defense has allowed 14 or fewer points in three of the previous four, with the exception that 27-point score by WKU, a rather powerful offense. The UNDER is also hitting at a 5-2-1 clip in the previous eight in this series.

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SOUTH ALABAMA JAGUARS BETTING ANALYSIS

The Jaguars can get the offense going when it needs to, posting 300.3 passing yards per game, while going for 462.3 total yards per contest. Both of those numbers are top-30 in the country, and the team is exactly 30th in the nation with 36.0 PPG.

Defensively, USA has been hard on the run, allowing just 94.8 yards per game to rank 11th, but that won't mean much against Troy, who doesn't choose to run much at all. The Jaguars have been dinged for 228.8 yards per game through the air, so they'll be tested early and often by the aerial attack of the Trojans.

South Alabama has covered six of the past seven at home, but it is just 1-4 ATS in the past five conference tilts, while losing four straight meetings to Troy. The home team has cashed in just three of the past 10 in this series, too.

TROY TROJANS vs. SOUTH ALABAMA JAGUARS BETTING TRENDS

  • Troy is 4-1 ATS in the past five games overall
  • Troy is 4-1 ATS in the past five road games
  • Troy is 1-4-1 ATS in the past six Thursday games
  • South Alabama is 5-2 ATS in the past seven games overall
  • South Alabama is 6-1 ATS in the past seven home games
  • South Alabama is 1-4 ATS in the past five Sun Belt games
  • UNDER is 11-5 in the past 16 road games for Troy
  • UNDER is 4-1 in the past five Sun Belt games for Troy
  • UNDER is 9-4 in the past 13 home games for South Alabama
  • UNDER is 5-2-2 in the past nine Thursday games for South Alabama
  • UNDER is 6-1 in the past seven vs winning teams for South Alabama
  • Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings
  • Road team is 7-3 ATS in the past 10 meetings
  • UNDER is 5-2-1 in the past eight meetings