UCF Knights vs. Tulane Green Wave Picks, Predictions, Odds

We could be witnessing a preview of the AAC Championship Game when the Tulane Green Wave host the UCF Knights on Saturday, November 12, at 3:30 p.m. ET from Yulman Stadium in New Orleans, Louisiana. This game will be broadcast on ESPN2.

UCF Knights vs. Tulane Green Wave Betting Prediction

The top two teams in the AAC will face off on Saturday afternoon in the Big Easy when the Tulane Green Wave (8-1, 5-0 in AAC play) host the UCF Knights (7-2, 4-1 in AAC play). The winner of this game is likely going to host the AAC Championship Game in three weeks, earning the inside track to the Group of Five Spot in the New Year's Six. UCF has won four straight games in this series, but the Knights are short underdogs to Willie Fritz and the Green Wave.

Score Prediction: Tulane 28, UCF 24
Best Bet: Tulane -1 (-110)

UCF Knights vs. Tulane Green Wave Betting Odds

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UCF Knights vs. Tulane Green Wave Betting Resources

Date: Saturday, November 12, 2022
Matchup: American
Venue: Yulman Stadium
Location: New Orleans, Louisiana
Time-TV: ESPN2, 3:30 p.m. ET
Expert Picks

UCF Knights Betting Analysis

It sounds like John Rhys Plumlee is ready to return to action this week. Plumlee suffered a concussion in the first half against Cincinnati two weeks ago, leading to Mikey Keene taking over for UCF. Keene was very good against Cincinnati and Memphis, completing 37 of 49 passes for 395 yards with three touchdowns and an interception in those two games. Many were hoping that Keene would still be the starting quarterback even after Plumlee was healthy again, but Gus Malzahn appears set to start the Ole Miss transfer. Plumlee is more of a running threat than a passing threat, and he leads the team with 532 rushing yards and seven touchdowns.

UCF runs the ball very well in Malzahn's system. The Knights are averaging 5.2 YPC and are picking up 232.8 YPG on the ground. Plumlee can be electric with his legs, while R.J. Harvey is a home run threat averaging 7.4 YPC and Isaiah Bowser is a bruiser that can pick up tough yards between the tackles. Ryan O'Keefe is the main receiver, but Javon Baker and Kobe Hudson aren't far behind.

The Knights have the ultimate 'bend, but don't break' defense. They rank 16th in scoring defense (19.9 PPG) and 77th in total defense (395.3 YPG). UCF has the third-best fourth down defense in the nation, and no team has been better in the red zone. Opponents have only found points on 61.8% of their trips inside UCF's 20-yard line. Tre'mon Morris-Brash leads the Knights with five sacks, and Divaad Wilson has three interceptions on the season. Cornerback Davonte Brown is a shut-down corner that will be playing on Sundays next season.

Tulane Green Wave Betting Analysis

Michael Pratt is completing 66.7% of his passes for 1,843 yards (8.7 YPA) with 14 touchdowns and four interceptions this season. Pratt has been a solid signal caller for the Green Wave, and he is the second leading rusher on the team in Willie Fritz's modified option offense. No one has more than 25 receptions or 400 receiving yards though as Pratt spreads the ball around pretty evenly.

The Green Wave have one of the top running backs in the AAC in Tyjae Spears. He has run for 745 yards and 10 touchdowns while averaging 5.6 YPC for Tulane. Spears has exploded in wins over USF, Memphis, and Tulsa in his last three games, and he hopes to keep it going against UCF on Saturday.

Tulane has the 27th ranked defense in the country per SP+. The Green Wave are allowing just 19.0 PPG and 332.1 YPG, ranking in the top 25 nationally in both categories. Dorian Williams leads the team in tackles and sacks, and three different players have multiple interceptions on this defense. Macon Clark and Larry Brooks are both disruptive safeties that can make plays and force their opponents into making mistakes.

UCF Knights vs. Tulane Green Wave Betting Trends

• UCF is 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
• The total has gone UNDER in six of UCF's last eight games.
• UCF is 6-1 SU in their last seven games.
• Tulane is 5-0 ATS in their last five games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Tulane's last 14 games.
• Tulane is 5-0 SU in their last five games.
• The total has gone UNDER in four of Tulane's last six games against UCF.
• Tulane is 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.
• UCF is 1-5 ATS in their last six games against Tulane.
• UCF is 7-1 SU in their last eight games against Tulane.