Last Updated Nov 23, 2022, 4:58 PM

Utah Utes vs. Oregon Ducks Picks, Predictions, Odds

The winner of Saturday night's game between the Oregon Ducks and the Utah Utes will have the inside track on a place in the PAC 12 Championship Game. These teams will square off on Saturday, November 19, at 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN from Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon.

Utah Utes vs. Oregon Ducks Betting Prediction

Oregon was absolutely dominated by Utah in their two meetings last year. The Utes knocked off the Ducks 38-7 in Salt Lake City in the penultimate week of the regular season, and they nearly mirrored that performance two weeks later in the PAC 12 Championship Game with a 38-10 beatdown of Oregon. That has this program looking for revenge under new head coach Dan Lanning, but Utah appears to just be a bad matchup for the Ducks. Utah's power run game is different than what we see in the rest of the conference, giving the Utes an edge once again this week.

Score Prediction: Utah 34, Oregon 20
Best Bet: Utah -2

Utah Utes vs. Oregon Ducks Betting Odds

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Utah Utes vs. Oregon Ducks Best Bets

Utah Utes vs. Oregon Ducks Betting Resources

Date: Saturday, November 19, 2022
Matchup: Big 12
Venue: Autzen Stadium
Location: Eugene, Oregon
Time-TV: ESPN, 10:30 p.m. ET
Expert Picks

Utah Utes Betting Analysis

Utah ranks 18th in Offensive SP+ coming into this game. The Utes have one of the best run games in the country, averaging 5.1 YPC and 206.1 YPG on the ground. Tavion Thomas is coming off his best performance of the season, carrying the ball 22 times for 180 yards and two touchdowns in an easy win over Stanford last week, and Jaylon Glover is explosive if he is healthy enough to play on Saturday night.

Cameron Rising is the perfect quarterback for this offense. Utah has been one of the top teams in the sport since he took over for transfer Charlie Brewer early in the 2021 season due to Rising's ability to run and throw. Rising is completing 66.3% of his passes for 2,225 yards (8.1 YPA) with 19 touchdowns and four interceptions, and he is the second-leading rusher on the Utes. The young quarterback has run for 335 yards (6.4 YPC) and six touchdowns.

The loss of tight end Brant Kuithe in September kept this offense from being a nightmare to defend because Kuithe and fellow tight end Dalton Kincaid are NFL prospects. Kincaid is the top receiver on the team with 50 receptions for 649 yards and seven touchdowns, but the only receiver to fear is Devaughn Vele. He has 44 catches for 546 yards and five TDs on the season.

The Utes rank 25th in Defensive SP+. They are allowing 5.8 yards per play, but opponents aren't putting together long drives against this defense often. Utah ranks 10th nationally in sack rate, and Clark Phillips III has five interceptions and two pick-sixes. These safeties like to rotate into the box to help the run defense, so Oregon will need to keep them honest.

Oregon Ducks Betting Analysis

There has been movement in favor of Utah prior to this game as it sounds like Oregon starting quarterback Bo Nix will be unavailable. Receiver Kris Hutson let it slip that Nix won't be able to play during the mid-week press conference, stating "Bo is down, so it’s the next man up." The next man up would be Ty Thompson, who has seen limited action during his two years with the Ducks. Thompson has completed 18 of 36 passes for 159 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions, and he hasn't shown himself to be much of a runner either.

The good news for Oregon is that the Ducks have been very effective on the ground this year. They are averaging 5.9 YPC (2nd in the nation) and 236.7 YPG on the ground (10th in the nation) even though last year's top back Travis Dye left for USC in the offseason. Bucky Irving has run for 831 yards (7.0 YPC) and two touchdowns, while Noah Whittington has run for 620 yards (6.1 YPC) and four TDs. However, Nix was an excellent runner, especially in the red zone, so that will be tough to reproduce if he does indeed miss this game due to injury.

Oregon is currently 59th in Defensive SP+. The Ducks have never been great on this side of the ball, but Dan Lanning is looking to change that despite the loss of Kayvon Thibodeaux to the NFL. This secondary is allowing 312.2 YPG, and while some of that is a result of garbage time yardage, it's still very concerning. Teams are also converting 49.6% of their third downs against this defense, and that's untenable if the Ducks are going to win against fellow elite teams like Utah.

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