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Dec 28, 2021

Alamo Bowl Picks, Predictions and Odds: Oregon vs. Oklahoma

Dec. 29, 2021
Dan Dobish
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

The Oregon Ducks (10-3) and Oklahoma Sooners (10-2) will face each other in the Valero Alamo Bowl in San Antonio on Wednesday night. Kickoff is scheduled for 9:15 p.m. ET, and the game will be televised on ESPN.

Score Prediction

Oklahoma 31, Oregon 27

Best Bets

Oregon +7 (-105) at Bet365

Under 60.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Alamo Bowl Predictions

Each of these teams had greater expectations heading into the season, and they would have been plenty happy meeting at season's end, just in the College Football Playoff, not one of the better mid-tier bowl games.

Oregon had a tremendous 35-28 win at Ohio State back in mid-September, but it also had a bad loss in overtime at Stanford on Oct. 2, as well as a 38-7 pounding at Utah on Nov. 20, as well as a 38-10 loss to Utah in the Pac-12 Championship Game, too. The biggest loss for the Ducks was head coach Mario Cristobal, who couldn't say no to a return home to the University of Miami for the same job. The good news for Oregon is that defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter took the same position at Texas Tech, and offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead will be the new head coach at Akron, but both men will stay for this bowl. Georgia DC Dan Lanning will be the next head coach.

Oklahoma lost more than games at Baylor on Nov. 13 and at Oklahoma State on Nov. 27. The Sooners also lost head coach Lincoln Riley, who couldn't say no to the sun-splashed landscape of Southern California, taking the USC job. Bob Stoops is operating as the interim head coach before Brent Venables takes the reins of the offense as the new head man in charge in January. The Sooners will be down some assistants, too, as defensive coordinator Alex Grinch is also USC-bound already, while several other assistants are also gone. Defensive line coach Calvin Thibodeaux took a job at SMU, too.

The players who will not be on the field include Oregon's Kayvon Thibodeaux, and Oklahoma's Nik Bonitto and Perrion Winfrey, opting out. Oregon starting RT Malaesala Aumavae-Laulu declared for the draft, but he intends to play in this game, although WR Devon Williams has also opted out. CB DJ James also entered the transfer portal. He was fifth on the team with 46 total tackles (34 solo) with two picks.

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Alamo Bowl Betting Odds

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Alamo Bowl Betting Resources

  • Matchup: Pac-12 vs. Big 12
  • Date: Wednesday, December 29, 2021
  • Venue: Alamodome
  • Location: San Antonio,Texas
  • TV-Time: ESPN, 9:15 p.m. ET

Oregon Ducks Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 10-3
  • ATS: 5-8
  • O/U: 6-7

Oregon heads into this one in a familiar spot, facing a ranked team in a bowl game. It's the seventh time in the past eight bowls, and 16th time in the past 18 bowl games that the Ducks will be facing a team ranked inside the Top 25. They lost last season's Fiesta Bowl against Iowa State by a 34-17 count in front of zero fans at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz. This will be their first time facing Oklahoma in a bowl game since Dec. 29, 2005 in the Holiday Bowl, a 17-14 victory by the Sooners, the final game in the Mike Bellotti era. This will be Oregon's first trip to San Antonio for the Alamo Bowl since an epic 47-41 3OT loss against TCU on Jan. 2, 2016. Prior to that, Oregon won Dec. 30, 2013 against Texas in San Antonio.

The Ducks have fared well against winning teams lately, going 9-4 ATS in the past 13 games against teams with a winning overall record. However, the Ducks are 6-14-1 ATS in the past 21 outings against non-conference opponents.

In terms of the total, the UNDER is 5-1 in the past six games for UO as an underdog, while going 4-1 in the past five games in the month of December. In addition, the UNDER is 8-3 in the past 11 non-conference games, while going 4-1 in the past five against Big 12 foes.

Oklahoma Sooners Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 10-2
  • ATS: 5-6-1
  • O/U: 7-5

Oklahoma picked up a 55-20 victory Florida in the Cotton Bowl last Dec. 30, 2020 in what turned out to be Riley's final bowl game. In the prior three bowl trips, the Sooners were on the short end, and OU is just 3-6 SU across the past nine bowl games. This will be Oklahoma's first appearance against a Pac-12 opponent in a bowl since topping Stanford 31-27 in the Brut Sun Bowl on Dec. 31, 2009. Oklahoma has won three of its past four bowl games against Pac-12 foes. This will be Oklahoma's first trip to the Alamodome, a frequent landing spot for their rivals, the Texas Longhorns.

The Sooners are 4-1-1 ATS in the past six games against teams with a winning record, while going 4-0 ATS in the past four neutral-site games. They're also 5-2 ATS in the past seven bowl games despite the fact they've had their issues trying to win postseason games outright. They're also 4-0 ATS in the past four as a favorite on a neutral field.

For totals, the OVER is 4-1 in the past five neutral-site games, while going 5-2 in the past seven games against teams with a winning overall record. The OVER is also 5-1 in the past six against a Pac-12 team, while going 14-3 in the past 17 games after a straight-up loss.

Inside the Stats - Oregon Ducks

  • Record: 10-3
  • VI Ranking: 16
  • Points Scored: 408
  • Points Allowed: 331
  • PS/G: 31.4
  • PA/G: 25.5

Inside the Stats - Oklahoma Sooners

  • Record: 10-2
  • VI Ranking: 11
  • Points Scored: 461
  • Points Allowed: 303
  • PS/G: 38.4
  • PA/G: 25.3

Key Players to Watch

  • ORE: Anthony Brown - QB (224/351, 2,692 yards, 16 TD, 6 INT)
  • ORE: Travis Dye - RB (142 rushes, 637 yards, 9 TD)
  • OU: Kennedy Brooks - RB (183 rushes, 1,107 yards, 10 TD)
  • OU: Caleb Williams - QB (116/185, 2,082 total yards, 24 total TDs, 4 INT)

Alamo Bowl Betting Conclusion

This is actually a very strange game to handicap, as we have two interim head coaches squaring off against each other. I think it's going to be a pro-Oklahoma crowd, as it's their first time traveling to San Antonio for this decent bowl game, and the proximity allows them to travel in great numbers.

The loss of Thibodeaux, and several other key players for the Ducks also hurts them. And if you simply look at the quarterbacks, Caleb Williams of the Sooners is a dual-threat and exciting player who will be a difference maker, and he'll be able to run amok without Thibodeaux pursuing him all evening. I think Oklahoma will be able to get done straight-up, but I still like the run game of the Ducks. Dye is a home-run hitter, and he and Brown are still two solid players on the offensive side of the football. As long as the offensive line losses do not negatively impact them too much, Oregon will be able to hang around.

Alamo Bowl Betting Trends

  • Oregon is 9-4 ATS in the past 13 games against winning teams.
  • Oregon is 6-14-1 ATS in the past 21 non-conference games.
  • Oklahoma is 4-1-1 ATS in the past six games against winning teams.
  • Oklahoma is 5-2 ATS in the past seven bowl games.
  • Oklahoma is 4-0 ATS in the past four neutral-site games.
  • The UNDER is 8-3 in Oregon's past 11 non-conference games.
  • The UNDER is 5-1 in Oregon's past six as an underdog.
  • The UNDER is 4-1 in Oregon's past five vs. BIG12.
  • The OVER is 5-2 in Oklahoma's past seven games against winning teams.
  • The OVER is 4-1 in Oklahoma's past five neutral-site games.
  • The OVER is 5-1 in Oklahoma's past six vs. Pac-12.


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