College Football Week 11 Best Bets: 15 Bets For College Football Saturday

College Football Week 11 Best Bets: 15 Bets For College Football Saturday

Image Credit: Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

November is here, which means college football week 11 is upon us. It feels like just yesterday we were gearing up for Ohio State vs. Texas. Now, teams are playing for their playoff lives! Here are all of my best bets for week 11 of the college football action.

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UMASS VS. AKRON BEST BET

MASS @ AKR Odds

MACtion is BACK! Truly the most wonderful time of the year. UMass has an abysmal offense, as does Akron. The difference is that the skill difference between these two teams is not as great as the spread indicates.

UMass does have a strong rush defense, so if they can force Akron quarterback Ben Finley to try and get it done through the air, I think UMass can keep this matchup close.

Bet: UMass Minutemen +10.5 (-105)

KENT STATE VS. BALL STATE BEST BET

KENT @ BALL Odds

This total is too high for two teams that play so slow. Kent State averages 61.1 offensive snaps per game, while Ball State is averaging 63.3 offensive snaps per game.

Both teams have limited explosives on offense, and Ball State, specifically, has less than a 1% big-time throw rate. Consequently, their explosive-play rate is in the 2nd percentile amongst all other college football teams. Wednesday's MACtion should bring us a low-scoring matchup.

Bet: Kent State Golden Flashes @ Ball State Cardinals u46.5 (-110)

JAMES MADISON VS. MARSHALL BEST BET

JMU @ MRSH Odds

Both of these teams have played easy schedules to date, but James Madison has the stats, while Marshall does not. JMU ranks 10th in Net EPA/play and is particularly stout on defense.

JMU's defense is 2nd in defensive success rate and 7th in EPA/pass attempt allowed. Marshall's rush defense is the best part of their defensive unit, but JMU quarterback Alonza Barnett III is more than capable to attack this Marshall pass defense.

Bet: James Madison Dukes -12.5 (-110)

TEMPLE VS. ARMY BEST BET

TEM @ ARMY Odds

I like Temple's offensive matchup in the pass game here. They currently rank 12th in EPA/pass attempt, while Army's defense is 97th against the pass. Temple's offense is very strong on early downs, while Army's late-down success rate allowed is one of the worst in college football.

Conversely, Temple's defense is strong on 3rd down, allowing a 40.6% 3rd-down success rate. I like Temple to win this game against Army.

Bet: Temple Owls +6.5 (-105) + ML (+205)

EASTERN MICHIGAN VS. BOWLING GREEN BEST BET

BGSU @ EMU Odds

Eastern Michigan's offense is rather efficient for a MAC team. They rank 46th in EPA/pass and 52nd in EPA/rush. The Eastern Michigan offense will be what makes them victorious in this MAC matchup.

The advantage for EMU is in the air, and their identity so far has been through the air. EMU has passed the ball on 55.6% of offensive snaps, so not only is the matchup advantageous, but they like to play to this particular matchup strength as it is.

Bet: Eastern Michigan Eagles -1.5 (-115)

JACKSONVILLE STATE VS. UTEP BEST BET

JVST @ UTEP Odds

UTEP is coming into this matchup with one of the better defenses in college football. They rank 9th in defensive success rate, with a particular strength against the run. Although their defense is so strong, it evens out with their abysmal offense.

UTEP is 131st in both pass and rush offense, 133rd in early downs EPA/play, and 133rd in 3rd-down success rate. UTEP is going to stop Jacksonville State but likely won't be able to capitalize on their stops, which should result in a low-scoring affair.

Bet: Jacksonville State Gamecocks @ UTEP Miners u49.5 (-110)

TEXAS A&M VS. MISSOURI BEST BET

TA&M @ MIZ Odds

This Texas A&M offense is one of the most fun offenses to watch in college football. With a near 5% big-time throw rate, quarterback Marcel Reed has solidified his name amongst the top of the Heisman favorites.

With that said, Missouri plays fast and can capitalize on a Texas A&M defense that has allowed 21+ points in over half of their games this season. Even with Beau Pribula out for the season, Missouri should still be able to expose the 95th-ranked Texas A&M rush defense.

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Best Bet: Texas A&M Aggies @ Missouri Tigers o49.5 (-105)

DUKE VS. UCONN BEST BET

DUKE @ UCONN Odds

This Duke offense is FUN. Darian Mensah has one of the highest PFF grades amongst college quarterbacks, and the near 5% big-time throw rate is very strong. Duke also loves to pass the ball, as they have run passing plays on 61.3% of offensive snaps.

Conversely, Duke's defense is weak enough to give UConn a path to the end zone. UConn's pass offense is 10th, while Duke's pass defense is 113th. While neither team plays fast, I think they will both be efficient enough to make this a high-scoring affair.

Best Bet: Duke Blue Devils @ UConn Huskies o65.5 (-110)

TEXAS STATE VS. LOUISIANA BEST BET

TXST @ UL Odds

The statistical discrepancy between these two teams is far too wide to rationalize this short of a betting line. Normally, I can adjust the stats for strength of schedule, but according to PFF, Texas State has played a tougher schedule to date than Louisiana.

Offensively, Texas State has an advantage in both the air and ground. Louisiana's defense is 108th in defensive success rate and 124th in net EPA/drive.

Take Texas State before this gets to 3.5 or higher.

Best Bet: Texas State Bobcats -2.5 (-105)

AIR FORCE VS. SAN JOSE STATE BEST BET

AFA @ SJSU Odds

Air Force's offense is shockingly effective for a service academy. They rank 3rd in EPA/pass play and 10th in EPA/rush. Overall they rank 9th in offensive success rate, so Air Force will be primed to pick apart this 105th rated defenses in San Jose State.

Air Force's defense is not good, but SJSU is not the team to take advantage of this. I like Air Force to come out on top in this Mountain West matchup.

Best Bet: Air Force Falcons +5.5 (-115) + ML (+170)

FLORIDA STATE VS. CLEMSON BEST BET

FSU @ CLEM Odds

The Seminole's advantages in this matchup are plentiful. Their 15th ranked pass offense will face up against Clemson's 63rd rated pass defense, and FSU's offensive success rate ranks 19th in college football.

FSU also has the benefit of cruising to a win against Wake Forest last week while Clemson was involved in a close matchup against Duke that ended in heart-break. FSU is going to be well rested and poised to take care of their statistical advantages against the Tigers.

Best Bet: Florida State Seminoles +2.5 (-110)

NEVADA VS. UTAH STATE BEST BET

NEV @ USU Odds

Nevada's offense really struggles to move the ball. So far this season, the Wolfpack are 6-2 to the under highlighting their offensive deficiencies and strong pass defense. Nevada also plays extremely slow, averaging 63.6 offensive snaps per game.

Nevada ranks 135th in offense EPA/drive and 128th in offensive success rate. Nevada is the reason why this game will be low-scoring.

Best Bet: Nevada Wolf Pack @ Utah State Aggies u53.5 (-110)

SAN DIEGO STATE VS. HAWAI'I BEST BET

SDSU @ HAW Odds

Drink your coffee because we are going to be staying up late for this matchup on the island!

San Diego State's defense is first class. They are the top pass defense in terms of EPA/pass, they are 3rd in defensive success rate, and 4th on early downs EPA/play allowed. Hawai'i just simply can not match up against this SDSU defense, so I expect the Aztecs to win big in this late night Mountain West matchup.

Best Bet: San Diego State Aztecs -7 (-105)

I would love to hear from you all. You can interact with me on Threads and best of luck this week!