Best Bets – Wyndham

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Wyndham Championship
Sedgefield Country Club – Par 70 – 7,127 yards

The final regular season event of the PGA Tour season gets going on Thursday, as the Wyndham Championship has maintained it's season-ending status, albeit, a few weeks earlier in the calendar then year's past. Therefore, like the case has been at the Sedgefield Club the past few years, keeping an eye on the Fed-Ex Cup standings is more important here then in most events, as it's the last chance for guys to secure their spot in the Top 125 to be eligible for the Northern Trust next weekend.

With the playoffs starting next week, this field is void of nearly all the top golfers in the world as many of them pass here knowing that their spots are already locked up and they want to peak for that three-week stretch drive to try and earn a $10 million check at the end of it. It's not very often that Webb Simpson (+900) is the listed favorite for any event on Tour, and that's not a shot at Simpson by any means. He's been among the favorites numerous times this year, but when oddsmakers have to list him at the top of that group, it speaks to the (lack of) depth in the field more then anything.

After Webb, you've got Hideki Matsuyama (+1400), Jordan Spieth (+1600) and last week's winner at the Barracuda Championship Collin Morikawa (+1800) as the only other golfers listed below that +2000 threshold. To have a young rookie like Morikawa in that mix and ahead of established pros like Paul Casey (+2200), Patrick Reed (+2200), and the defending champion Brandt Snedeker (+2200) once again speaks to the lack of depth this field has, but it also speaks to just how much talent Morikawa has and how much of a factor oddsmakers expect him to be on Tour in the coming years.

Guys off their first career win like Morikawa is are never the best to back in my view though (who knows how focused they are or how much partying they've done), and this has not really been an event for young guys going the distance in recent years. Sedgefield Country Club is more of a plodder's course where you can definitely overpower it at times, but plodding your way from “station to station” is more likely to lead to lower scores. It's not a long course by any means at 7,100+ yards, and if guys are able to dial in those approach shots to these smaller greens, some really low numbers can be recorded.

With the winner's list over the past 12 years consisting of names like Snedeker (twice), Patrick Reed, Sergio Garcia, Webb Simpson, Henrik Stenson, and Ryan Moore, accurate ball striking is a much and hopefully the putter gets hot. With the added pressure of everyone's individual Fed-Ex Cup positioning as the backdrop for this event as well, it never hurts to try and pair the two up – solid ball strikers + guys needing Fed-Ex Cup points – to break down the field and go from there.

So that's where this week's piece aims to go, although I would like to give a special shout out to Wyndham Clark (+10000) this week. If there ever was someone born to win a specific event, Wyndham Clark winning the Wyndham Championship would have to take the cake. The young Oregon product who I've referred to as “Dustin Johnson Lite” in past pieces could find himself involved with the leaders this weekend if he's able to use his power to further shorten this course and have a better then average week for him with his irons, but it was ultimately his lack of experience at this venue (he's never played here) that made him one of the final cuts.

Golfers to Watch:

Alex Noren (+4000) – It's not been the greatest of years for Noren in 2019 as he's yet to have a Top 10 on the PGA Tour this year. This was a guy who was ranked in the Top 10 in the world not too long ago, but an off year filled with a lack of consistency has dropped him to 44th in the world coming into the week. When he's on, he's an elite ball striker who can give himself plenty of birdie looks, and at an event like this when the winner will have to go low, that's an upside that's not bad to have here.

And while there has been some inconsistencies from Noren throughout the year, he's seemingly found something lately, as he finished T11 at the Open Championship, and T12 at last week's WGC event. Those are quality finishes in elite fields, and if it weren't for some issues in the final rounds of both events (weather played a part over in Ireland), he could have easily cracked through with his first Top 10 of the year. Without all those big names to try and surpass this week, a guy like Noren who's got his game trending in the right way should be in line for a quality finish this week.

Noren has never played this course with is definitely a knock and will have many overlooking him, but he's got all the motivation in terms of the Fed-Ex Cup race to put his name among the leaders on Sunday. At 37 years old there isn't as many concerns about this being his first go around at Sedgefield as the younger guys in the same position, and with him sitting right on the bubble at 125th in the Fed-Ex Cup standings, he needs a solid week to assure himself of a tee time next week as part of the Top 125.

Martin Kaymer (+5000) – Kaymer is another Tour vet with a keen eye on the Fed Ex Cup standings, as he enters the week 127th in that regard and needing a strong finish to crack that Top 125. He added this event to his schedule to get those necessary points no doubt, and while he's only played here twice in the past 10 years (2013 and 2015), he finished 20th and 14th respectively at this event, so it's not like there isn't some fond course history memories he can fall back on this week.

To make the Fed Ex Cup playoffs on such a light PGA Tour schedule this year would be a great accomplishment for Kaymer, and even though guys in his spot know that $10 million payday for the Tour Championship is likely out of reach, prize money is rather lucrative for all the playoff events and who doesn't like a bit of extra cash in their pocket. He made a point to play the Barracuda Championship last week to further his standing in the Fed-Ex Cup race to give himself a shot at cracking the 125, and I don't think he blows it now.

Shorter courses can play to Kaymer's strengths as long as he's accurate off the tee, and with a 33rd ranking in Strokes Gained: Approach this year, a good week with GIR numbers should find himself making a few putts based on sheer volume alone. The course history is there for him to suggest that he understands how to plod his way around this track, and as one of the guys in this field with a career resume that proves he can beat the best of the best, bettors should expect Kaymer's name to be in the mix over the weekend.

Si Woo Kim (+15000) – Advocates of recent form aren't going to have Si Woo Kim anywhere near their radar this week, as he's missed the cut in nine of his past 10 events overall. It's not like he's been completely far off on many of those MC's though as a few of them have come by just a stroke or two, and as a past winner of this event, those few strokes lost probably won't occur here.

Kim ranks 19th on Tour overall in bride average (4.16), and at an event where you need to go low and aren't among a very deep field, that ranking and number looks even better. Throw in the fact that Kim is also a past champion here, and there might not be a better spot for him to break out of this funk he's been in for months now and have his came start to rise for the playoffs.

As long as he can avoid those blowup holes that seemingly cost him every week and push him to travel home on Friday evenings, Kim should be a name bettors should see rising up the leaderboard this week. He's priced like a guy who's missed the cut in nine of his last 10 starts, but Kim's not got the long-term profile of a guy who does that often.

Wyndham Championship Odds
Webb Simpson 9/1
Hideki Matsuyama 14/1
Collin Morikawa 16/1
Jordan Spieth 18/1
Paul Casey 20/1
Brandt Snedeker 22/1
Patrick Reed 22/1
Billy Horschel 26/1
Viktor Hovland 28/1
Cameron Smith 33/1
Alex Noren 40/1
Chez Reavie 40/1
Adam Hadwin 45/1
Rory Sabbatini 45/1
Byeong Hun An 50/1
Charles Howell III 50/1
Joaquin Niemann 50/1
Lucas Glover 50/1
Martin Kaymer 50/1
Matthew Wolff 50/1
Scott Piercy 50/1
Dylan Frittelli 60/1
Martin Laird 60/1
Russell Henley 60/1
Sungjae Im 60/1
Aaron Wise 66/1
Abraham Ancer 66/1
Kevin Streelman 66/1
Jason Kokrak 70/1
Brian Harman 75/1
Sepp Straka 75/1
Bud Cauley 80/1
Jason Dufner 80/1
Kyle Stanley 80/1
Russell Knox 80/1
Denny Mccarthy 85/1
Doc Redman 85/1
Lucas Bjerregaard 85/1
Bill Haas 90/1
Branden Grace 90/1
Daniel Berger 90/1
Vaughn Taylor 90/1
Adam Schenk 100/1
JT Poston 100/1
Nick Taylor 100/1
Nick Watney 100/1
Wyndham Clark 100/1
Zach Johnson 100/1
Kevin Tway 110/1
Troy Merritt 110/1
Austin Cook 125/1
Brendan Steele 125/1
Brice Garnett 125/1
Bronson Burgoon 125/1
Charley Hoffman 125/1
Corey Conners 125/1
Jj Spaun 125/1
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 125/1
Roger Sloan 125/1
Sebastian Munoz 125/1
Shawn Stefani 125/1
Beau Hossler 140/1
Luke List 140/1
Ryan Armour 140/1
Sam Ryder 140/1
Andrew Landry 150/1
Harold Varner III 150/1
Jimmy Walker 150/1
Peter Malnati 150/1
Robert Streb 150/1
Si Woo Kim 150/1
Chris Stroud 160/1
Harris English 160/1
Johnson Wagner 160/1
Josh Teater 160/1
Matt Jones 160/1
Pat Perez 160/1
Brian Stuard 175/1
Danny Lee 175/1
Joel Dahmen 175/1
Mackenzie Hughes 175/1
Richy Werenski 175/1
Roberto Castro 175/1
Talor Gooch 175/1
Tom Hoge 175/1
Wes Roach 175/1
Adam Long 200/1
Brian Gay 200/1
Cameron Champ 200/1
Carlos Ortiz 200/1
Jonas Blixt 200/1
Jonathan Byrd 200/1
Kelly Kraft 200/1
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 200/1
Luke Donald 200/1
Michael Thompson 200/1
Peter Uihlein 200/1
Scott Brown 200/1
Scott Stallings 200/1
Seamus Power 200/1
Ted Potter Jr. 200/1
Adam Svensson 225/1
Chesson Hadley 225/1
Sam Saunders 225/1
Zack Sucher 225/1
Aaron Baddeley 250/1
Alex Prugh 250/1
Hank Lebioda 250/1
Kramer Hickok 250/1
Patrick Rodgers 250/1
Stephan Jaeger 250/1
Brandon Harkins 275/1
Chase Wright 275/1
Patton Kizzire 275/1
Roberto Diaz 275/1
Ryan Blaum 275/1
Stewart Cink 275/1
Anirban Lahiri 300/1
Cameron Davis 300/1
Sangmoon Bae 300/1
Ben Silverman 350/1
Fabian Gomez 350/1
Joey Garber 350/1
Kyle Jones 350/1
Satoshi Kodaira 350/1
Cody Gribble 400/1
Ernie Els 400/1
John Chin 400/1
Jose de Jess Rodriguez 400/1
Padraig Harrington 400/1
Scott Langley 400/1
Tyler Duncan 400/1
Alex Cejka 500/1
Boo Weekley 500/1
Curtis Luck 500/1
Hunter Mahan 500/1
Nicholas Lindheim 500/1
Whee Kim 500/1
Anders Albertson 600/1
JJ Henry 600/1
Michael Kim 600/1
Brady Schnell 750/1
Chris Thompson 750/1
Julian Etulain 750/1
Seth Reeves 750/1
Chad Collins 1000/1
Martin Trainer 1000/1
Rod Pampling 1000/1
Steve Scott 1000/1
Will Claxton 1000/1

Odds Subject to Change