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Capital One's The Match: Odds, Picks, Predictions, Best Bets


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Capital One's The Match

At the Medalist Golf Club in Hobe Sound, Florida which is pronounced similar to lobe or robe and located just north of the West Palm Beach area, Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson will renew their head-to-head rivalry.

This time, they'll be pairing up with two NFL legends from another sport for the sanctioned PGA Tour event while donating $10 million to benefit COVID-19 relief.

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Those legends are current Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady and former Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning.

Capital One's The Match: Champions for Charity

Date: Sunday, May 24, 2020
Location: Medalist Golf Club, Hobe Sound, Fla.
Time: 2:30 p.m. ET
TV: TBS/TNT/truTV

Capital One's The Match Betting Odds

  • Tiger Woods/Peyton Manning -225 (Bet $100 to win $44)
  • Phil Mickelson/Tom Brady +180 (Bet $100 to win $180)
  • Draw +230 (Bet $100 to win $230)
Tiger Woods was listed as a -205 betting favorite over Phil Mickelson (+175) when the pair played in their first "Match" event on Friday, Nov. 23, 2018 at Shadow Creek from Las Vegas, Nevada. The event was a pay-per-view match ($19.95) but the streaming provider (Turner, Bleacher Report) had major technical difficulties and wound up making it a free event.

Mickelson won the match as an underdog and took home the $9 Million prize as he bested Woods in 22 holes, which included four playoff holes. Fast forward to the holdday weekend, Turner will be airing the event for free and the prizes all go to charity.

While you can bet on the event, and that's why we're here, it's uncertain what kind of golfers Brady and Manning will be. We all know their super competitors, and part of the allure of this event will be listening to the smack talk between the two teams, particularly the two quarterbacks.

In addition, we'll see if we see another side of the normally reserved and measured Tiger, particularly working alongside (with social distancing!) Manning, who is one of the funniest professional athletes out there.

VegasInsider.com - The Match
Betting Analysis

VegasInsider.com golf expert Dan Daly provided us with his thoughts on the charity event and offered up his best Match Picks. He said, "I thought the Tiger/Phil match at Shadow Creek was the worst ending to any sporting event I had ever seen until Fowler/Wolff vs DJ/Rory ended with a closest to the hole wedge shot reserved for country club member-guest tie breakers."

"If nothing else the format for this thing should be a lot more entertaining. The front nine is a team match play with a Four-Ball (Best Ball) format and a modified alternate shot format on the back nine, meaning each player will tee off and then the team will play alternate shot from the selected drive."

Daly, a known Tiger fan and Phil hater, provided VI with a few wagers he'll be playing for Sunday's event.
  • Winner: Mickelson-Brady
  • Most Birdies: Mickelson-Brady
  • Will a playoff be needed to decided the winner? Yes
  • Will Hole No. 18 be played? Yes
Daly explained, "This is a tough one because no two people in my life have made me more money than Brady and Tiger, it’s like picking my favorite kid, but at the end of the day I like Mickelson and Brady to win. Yes the match will be held at Medalist, the home course to Tiger Woods but these things mean way more to Phil than they do to Tiger." 

"Tiger has a 4-5 record in made-for-TV events like this dating back to the Showdown at Sherwood against David Duval in 1999. He simply doesn’t care. Plus, Brady isn’t going to lose to Manning…at anything."

These charity television events usually don't end quickly and Daly is buying that narrative here.

"For my "Yes" wagers on the last two props, I believe I'll split at worst and certainly have a good shot to double-up. The Tiger/Phil match went extra holes as well as the Match last week. It may be decided on the 18th hole but they will definitely go all 18 so at a worse case you are guaranteed a push with those odds and I will take my chances at 3 to 1 on extra holes in a made-for-TV golf event," said Daly.

Playing an 18th hole is the favorite at the majority of legal US sportsbooks but extra holes can net you a decent return, ranging from 3/1 to 9/2 odds. Make a note that when the Tiger and Phil played extras in 2018, the return was as high as 7/1 odds.

For myself, I'm going against Daly on Match Picks but I believe my stronger play will be decided on the first hole.

Top Picks and Props - The Match

Hole 1 Betting - The Match

Woods/Manning (+270) vs. Mickelson/Brady (+280) -- Tie (-135)

If you were thinking about betting on Hole No. 1, you have to know about the hole first. At Medalist, it's a rather simple Par 4, and the second simplest hole on the links, according to the handicap numbers. It measures 386 yards with a deep bunker off to the right of the fairway gobbling up errant tee shots. It fades briefly to the left with a pine-tree lined, rather triangular-shaped green with two bunkers on either side of the front of the putting surface. Depending on the pin placement Sunday, those bunkers could definitely come into play, giving us a chance early on to see what kind of sand work our quarterback participants are capable of producing. The green depth is 42 yards, with a width of 25 yards.

While taking Woods/Manning, the favorites to come away with a win in the event, might be the more tempting play, a tie on the first hole is likely. One, it's a rather simple hole to begin the event which should mean that Tiger and Lefty are more than able to keep their teams right on track heading into Hole No. 2 without any disparity.

Hole 1 - Tie (-135)

Best Bet - The Match

Tiger Woods/Peyton Manning (-225)

Eventually power is going to take over, and you have to like the driving ability of Tiger over Lefty. During the 2020 season Tiger was averaging 291.1 yards off the tee with a 59.15 driving accuracy percentage and 64.35 green in regulation percentage with a 4.42 birdie average.

We also mentioned sand save percentage above, and Tiger checks in with a 53.33 so far during the 2019-20 PGA Tour season. Again, it's a small sample size given the pandemic pause and small amount of events entered, but he checks in No. 11 in the OWGR (Official World Golf Rankings).

The 49-year-old Mickelson is still mashing with a 301.1 average driving distance yardage, but he was just 182nd on Tour with a 56.23 driving accuracy percentage. He posted a 64.61 GIR percentage, which was very similar to Tiger.

However, his birdie average was just 3.06, with a 71.174 scoring average to 69.735 for Woods. That, and that alone, is likely why Tiger and Manning are overwhelming favorites over the course of the event.

Odds provided by FanDuel
Odds Subject to Change (T&C's Apply, 21+, US Legal States Only)

  
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