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Jul 01, 2020

Rocket Mortgage Classic Prop Picks and Predictions

It was a tough ending to the Travelers Championship last week, as a Snedeker Top 40 finish was the play that could have salvaged the prop betting week, but it turned out that it was a play that was kissed by too much bad luck from all sources, as it was a T41 finish for Snedeker in the end.

A final round of Even-par for Snedeker's just wasn't aggressive enough to get it done, and a bogey on #16 to fall back to Even for the day sealed Snedeker's fate. It's still a play I'd make over and over again at that price and in that situation.

And since it will likely be applicable again this week with the bulk of the leaderboard likely to go low, when scores get clustered in groups of 6+ guys all sharing the same finishing spot, cashing Top 40, 30, 20 bets are generally tougher because you are going to need a better score in terms of your percentile placement among the field to earn that placing.

For example, the 7th best golf score in the field last week at the Travelers was -12 and good for a T20. Had scores been more spread out, the 12th or 13th best score is probably good enough for a Top 20 finish. Just one more little note to keep in mind in tournaments like these.
 
So it's on to Detroit this week, and even with the potential for those finishing position wagers to be harder to connect on, they make up the bulk of the card again this week.

Rocket Mortgage Classic
Betting Resources

  • Picks and Predictions
  • Betting Odds
  • Tour: PGA
  • Date: Thursday, July 2, 2020 to Sunday, July 5, 2020
  • Venue: Detroit Golf Club
  • Location: Detroit, Michigan
  • Par-Yardage: 70, 6,840 yards
  • TV: Golf Channel, CBS

Top PGA Tour
Prop Picks and Predictions

Odds per DraftKings
Subject to Change

Top 20 Finish – Yes

Scottie Scheffler +175
Viktor Hovland +120

It's two young guns that make the list for Top 20 finishes this week, as this is an event where I do think we will see plenty of younger names and former Korn Ferry graduates working their way up to the top of the leaderboard.

The nature of the event in needing to go low is something Korn Ferry grads are very used too, and the younger guys have no fear in that regard either, and when that aggression connects with their swing being on, low scores are definitely on the menu.
 
In Scheffler's case, he's one of the names from the outright piece earlier in the week so there is no need to rehash the points behind liking him again. His play here is basically just more of a safety net of 20 places for near 2/1 money, and should he get burned by cluster placing and finish T22 or something, it will just be another tough beat to live with.
 
In Hovland's case, he's already proven he can hang with the best out on Tour, and his finishes have just been improving since the restart. He's gone 23, 21, and 11th in his three starts since returning, and he also played here last season and finished 13th.

The form is there, what little course history angle there could be is there, and Hovland's talent is one where he probably doesn't need the safety net of 20 places as much as Scheffler might. But I'm still getting a plus-money price tag on Hovland to have that catch guard and I'll gladly take it.

Top 40 Finish – Yes

Kristopher Ventura +275

Hovland and Matthew Wolff are former Oklahoma State teammates that have become well-known names on the PGA Tour already, but both of them arrived at OK State looking up to the talents that Kristopher Ventura had, especially Hovland, as both he and Ventura are from Norway.

The three of them won a national title in 2018 for the Cowboys, and while Hovland and Wolff went back to school, Ventura graduated, turned pro, and has yet to become that name even casual fans are familiar with like his former collegiate teammates have.
 
Ventura did win two Korn Ferry events last season en route to earning his full PGA Tour card this season, and his game is easily comparable to those former teammates already mentioned when it's on. Ventura just hasn't found that consistency yet at the pro level.
 
But in a field like this with a player who has comparable skills to those other names, maybe this is the spot for Ventura to bust out on the big stage. At a nearly 3-1 price for a respectable finish, I'll bite on Ventura's upside this week.

To Make Cut – Yes

Matthew Wolff -137

Might as well make it a full blown party for Oklahoma State golf fans, as some poor form with two straight missed cuts has Matthew Wolff rather underpriced here.
 
Yes, Wolff missed the cut at this event a year ago, but it was also his second official PGA Tour event as a pro, and a bad opening round of 75 is what did him in. Wolff bounced back with a 68 the following day, and then won the following week with a -21 score, so even in as young of a career as his, Wolff's shown the ability to turn around poor form in a hurry.
 
Furthermore, his two missed cuts the last two weeks look much worse without context, as Wolff was under par in both instances, and last week's rounds of 68-69 weren't good enough by a single shot.

There's always more to the story for those that are willing to look, and for me, backing Wolff to make the weekend is easy to get behind.
 
And with all the Oklahoma State love in this piece without mentioning Rickie Fowler's name, watch out for Fowler lighting it up this week at one of his sponsor's events no less. That's how these things tend to go.


 

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